Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 16 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 16 DRAFT:
1.01 Devin Knotts
1.02 Sean Settle
1.03 Justin Howe
1.04 Keith Roberts
1.05 James Brimacombe
1.06 Dan Hindery
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
devin knotts - SLOT 1
Overview - For the first time in several weeks, LeVeon Bell was not the top pick in the draft. Todd Gurley earned that honor thanks to a monumental 4-touchdown game last week. Gurley has been a consistent offensive weapon all year as a rusher and receiver. Both Gurley and Bell are excellent options this week, but based on tihs draft, Gurley gets the nod here. Devin elected to go with a Patriots stack of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. While this looks good on paper, it's important to know that Buffalo has been tough against opposing quarterbacks this year. They have allowed only two quarterbacks to throw for more than 1 touchdown in a game against them all season, including Brady in Week 13. That's a fairly high sample size and a risk I may not be willing to take, even if it is Tom Brady. Larry Fitzgerald and Kenyan Drake make up the rest of his roster. Fitzgerald has dominated targets for Arizona this year, but his scoring tendencies have dropped off, no thanks to Arizona's quarterback mash unit. He has a good matchup against the Giants but I don't see him as a receiver who can dominate with subpar quarterback play. Arizona's offense isn't that potent. Drake has been a solid back over the last few weeks and should continue to see plenty of carries and targets in this week's matchup at Kansas City. The concern with the Patriots stack is keeping me from endorsing this team as the one to beat, but like the NFL, you never know what's going to happen.
devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Pick 1.1 Is actually not something that I want this week, as there are really three running backs that I love. I knew it was likely a longshot that Kareem Hunt would make it back to me in the second round, so I prepared myself knowing that I was going to go WR/WR on the turn and then hope that Kenyan Drake was there in the fourth round as he is being woefully undervalued.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Larry Fitzgerald will make or break me. I know that the targets will be there and the matchup is tremendous going up against a horrible Giants secondary, but the problem is Drew Stanton. Stanton is completing just 48% of his passes on the season and while he heavily targeted Larry Fitzgerald if he misses some key open throws this could sink me this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Kenyan Drake is an absolute steal in the fourth round, this is a player who is seeing Le’Veon Bell type volume through the running game and passing game as over his last three games he has 26, 31, 22 touches and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the season. The matchup isn’t a great one, but it is not a bad one by any means and one in which Kansas City has struggled against pass catching running backs so you could expect the volume in the passing game to continue to be there this week for Drake.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I’m going back to the exact same player that I mentioned last week as he had a heck of a game and that is Mike Evans. Evans is in a tremendous spot this week going up against a Panthers secondary that has really struggled as of late as they have allowed the third most passing yards over the last six weeks and this should be a shootout type game that will go back and forth with Evans being a major part of it.
sean settle - SLOT 2
Overview: What stands out to me with Sean's team is the stack of Alex Smith and Travis Kelce. The success of this duo will likely be the determining factor behind how far this team goes. Other quarterbacks were available in the last round that may wind up being a better choice in hindsight. This includes Drew Brees at home vs Atlanta, Ben Roethlisberger at Houston, Nick Foles vs Oakland or Matthew Stafford at Cincinnati. Smith is a capable quarterback and he might connect with Kelce, but what if Smith scores only two touchdowns? It's a risk, but the lure of the stack can be too good to pass up. In addition to the Chiefs stack, Sean was able to grab LeVeon Bell as the #2 overall pick, Keenan Allen in round two and Leonard Fournette in round three. Fournette (quad) missed last week, but indications suggest he will play at San Francisco. Selecting Fournette in the third round is a good value that might prove to be beneficial to Sean's overall place this week. This team has potential, especially if Fournette and/or Bell have a big game to anchor the scoring while other players perform well enough to be solid complementary pieces.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week was all about trying to play the best matchups. LeVeon Bell fell to the second pick after Todd Gurley’s huge week last weekend and that is an absolute steal against a porous Houston defense. The Steelers are without their top option at WR and will really lean on Bell to close out the season. Keenan Allen will see a high volume of targets as usual and has huge potential against a weak Jets secondary. Leonard Fournette may have the best matchup of any running back but it is a risky play after being ruled out last week due to injury. Jacksonville is still trying to show they belong and want a strong finish to the season heading into the playoffs. I normally like to pair a WR and QB but Kelce and Smith are about as dynamic as you can get. The Chiefs have tried to get Kelce more active in the offense and are calling more plays designed for Smith to throw the ball downfield. Look for a big week from this duo.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Leonard Fournette is going to make or break this week and it all hinges on his injury. The leg injury that kept him out last week seemed to come out of nowhere and he was a late week scratch. He has a prime matchup against weak 49ers rush defense but needs to be healthy enough to be on the field. Jacksonville has already secured a playoff berth and could err on the side of caution with their lead back this week. Fournette will either have a big week or put up a 0 as the Jags try and rest him for a playoff run.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Just like last week, LeVeon Bell comes with the best value, even as the second overall pick. Despite the huge week that Gurley put up, Bell still had over 150 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers lost Antonio Brown for the rest of the season and their playoff aspirations will ride on the back of Bell to close out the season. Bell should see an uptick in touches even at his already high rate of usage. I was able to get the best all-around running back in the NFL at the second pick this week with a prime matchup and an expected uptick in usage.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
If I could add one more player this week it would be Drew Brees. The Saints are in a must-win game against Atlanta and Brees looked more like his old self last week. Brees could have had a 4-touchdown day had two calls not been overturned by replay and the chemistry with Michael Thomas looks as strong as ever. Willie Snead is also starting to step up with the absence of Ted Ginn Jr and the Saints offense has been clicking all season.
justin howe - SLOT 3
Overview - This is a strong week for running backs and Justin's #3 overall pick of Ezekiel Elliott along with the resurgent Kareem Hunt in the second round may be too much to overcome, but whether or not Elliott will have any rust is yet to be seen. Justin was able to grab DeAndre Hopkins in round three followed by Dak Prescott and A.J. Green to finish his draft. That's a solid team with positive matchups throughout. I especially like Hopkins despite playing with third string quarterback T.J. Yates. The matchup against Pittsburgh's defense, who have given up 113 points in the last four games is appealing. A.J. Green will have to face Darius Slay and the Lions but Green's target volume is too much to ignore, especially in the last round of the draft. This week's slate includes all 16 games, which means there's going to be value in the later rounds. No draft is the same, but strategies can be. Justin's decision to start heavy at running back and then mix in a quarterback between receivers paid off. This team has the horses to finish on top.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I wanted to open the draft with an absolute bang. And as far as I'm concerned, this week's top three running backs are such slam dunks (sorry to blend sports) that I wasn't overly fixated on grabbing my RB2 in the next round (though I ultimately did). With pick #3, I was happy to gather the fallout among LeVeon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and Todd Gurley. Opening with Elliott brings powerful volume and touchdown outlooks, even if he's semi-rusty - and I knew all along that I'd be pairing him with Dak Prescott to lock down a high-scoring Cowboys offense. I essentially spent the rest of the draft tap-dancing my way to landing Prescott down the road - I couldn't play chicken beyond Round 4, with 3 other teams still needing a QB, but I fell into some serious value along the way.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Without question, my week will be determined by Elliott's re-insertion into the offense - and the peripheral effects it has. This is obviously not the Seahawks defense we're used to, as we've seen of late against Leonard Fournette (101 yards and 1 touchdown) and Todd Gurley (152 and 3). And I'm encouraged by the fact that his absence wasn't an injury issue. He's been in practice with the team all week and I don't have to worry about conditioning or aggravation. Besides, I've made sure to add Prescott to the mix. The Cowboys will likely score solidly this week - they've averaged 29.3 over the last 3 weeks - and it would be shocking to see workhorse Elliott jump in but fail to hold up most of his end. In a worst-case scenario, I know Elliott is the type of workhorse who can at least complement a touchdown-hogging Prescott. And there are gobs of upside in Prescott, whose fantasy value is right back where it was seven weeks ago, only coming lower in a typical DRAFT.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Nobody wants in on the Bengals offense, so I understand why my colleagues left him for dead. Unlike most fantasy WR1s, a 3-catch, 30-yard day seems highly possible as the Bengals struggle to keep their heads above water. And it doesn't help that Green will see his share of Darius Slay this week. Still, Green remains such a dynamic splash play and touchdown producer that Round 5 feels like larceny. The gap between him and the undrafted WR/TE options feels huge, and I feel confident that no one within the final two rounds quite boasts Green's absolute ceiling.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Count me in on Mike Evans. I prefer my Round 5 pick of A.J. Green, but Evans at least gave me pause. He may well be coming around (better in Week 16 than never). Evans' matchup looks intimidating, and it kind of is, based on the Panthers' strong pass defense numbers. But I've personally watched them blow countless deep coverages this year, only to see Julio Jones or Marquise Goodwin or Zay Jones drop the sure touchdown. It's a contrarian play, but expecting a big Jameis Winston day has some merit, and being on the right side of Evans could be huge this week.
keith roberts - SLOT 4
Overview - Keith went heavy on Saints players with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, followed by Russell Wilson in the third round. A running back, wide receiver stack isn't the most common, but I can see New Orleans making it work. A big game and a score from both would give Keith exactly what he's looking for. The way the Saints have been playing lately suggests it's not that much of a stretch for both to reach paydirt. Russell Wilson struggled last week at home against the Rams, but I don't think all is lost with Wilson as a dominant performer. I have a hunch we'll see Wilson perform more of his magic at Dallas, which makes him a viable quarterback option this week. Keith went against the grain with two somewhat surprising picks of Robert Woods (at Tennessee) and Dion Lewis (vs. Buffalo). Sometimes you need to take some risks to win the prize, especially in this format. Woods has been a big part of the Rams offense this year. He proved last week that he has returned to form after missing three weeks with a shoulder injury. If he has another big game, Keith will come out smelling like a rose. His other pick of Dion Lewis is a tad risky, simply because this is New England we're talking about, where consistent rushing performances are hard to predict. Rex Burkhead (knee) will be sitting this game out which makes Lewis a person of interest, especially against the Bills who have struggled to defend the run at times. James White may squash the big game potential for Lewis, but there's a chance he has a decent game with a score giving Keith a shot at a Top 2 finish.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy from the start was to get a piece of the Falcons-Saints game, as it looks to be the highest scoring game of the week with both teams very alive in the divisional and playoff race. I chose to stack Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas as both have great upside in this matchup. I then knew I could wait on running back as the position is deep this week with all 16 games on the slate, so I decided to grab my second-ranked quarterback off the board early. I then took Robert Woods for his great matchup against a Titans secondary that has been burned on a regular basis this season and gave up over 380 passing yards to Jimmy Garoppolo last week. Robert Woods has been the main receiver for the Rams all season, and he quickly took back hold of that role last week in his first game back from injury. Overall, I was happy with my team’s upside here as I trust the great matchups of each player I drafted.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
The two Saints on my roster will be my big bets this week. I need both to be successful and score for this team to hit, and they should each have a great shot at it. Kamara’s upside both rushing and catching the ball has been displayed all season, and the Falcons have given up more receptions to running backs than any other team. Michael Thomas has at least 70 yards and a touchdown in three straight games, and should have had two more touchdowns last night had they not been called back after an official review. The Saints have the highest implied team total of the week, so I expect them to score early and often with these two guys being a couple of their most dynamic weapons.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I love the value I got on Dion Lewis in the last round. With Rex Burkhead off the field this week, the way is paved for Lewis to have a huge game. The Bills have been a doormat run defense this season, giving up nearly 140 rushing yards per game in the second half of the year. They have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (19) in the league and the most fantasy points per game (28.4) to opposing running backs. The Patriots are double-digit favorites at home, so both game script and matchup fall in the favor of Lewis. While it is always a gamble to roll with a Patriots running back, all signs point to Lewis being set up for success this week against the Bills.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Jarvis Landry would have been my next receiver off the board this week. He is in a premium matchup against the Chiefs, which have had one of the league’s worst secondary’s this season. The Chiefs have given up the third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and they have been particularly ineffective at covering slot receivers with Steven Nelson having an atrocious season, allowing over two yards allowed per route covered. The Dolphins should be playing from behind here according to Vegas, so Landry in a great matchup should continue to get peppered with targets and live up to his #7 ranking in PPR formats thus far this season.
james brimacombe - SLOT 5
Overview - Like Justin, James drafted two straight running backs to begin his draft and then followed them up with two receivers and a quarterback in the last round. LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram are just as good as Justin's Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt, and some might argue that the backs James drafted are better. Julio Jones has been wildly inconsistent this year, but when he's on, he's one of the best fantasy receivers in the game. Which Julio will show up against the Saints on the road this week? The answer to that could decide James' fate as a top finisher this week, especially because James also went with Matt Ryan as his quarterback. Josh Gordon was a bit of a surprise pick, but the potential for a big game is right around the corner, perhaps this week at Chicago. Gordon has 4, 3 and 5 receptions in the three games since his return. That's definitely not elite, but his stock is rising. A big game from Ryan and Jones will help James rack up the points against some tough competition this week. The potential is there for this team to thrive and finish on top at week's end.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
After last week going with Antonio Brown and missing out on the Todd Gurley play at the top of the running back tier, I wanted to go RB/RB with my first two picks this week. I went with LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram this week and felt good about it with having the 1.05 pick. I also wanted to have a QB/WR stack this week and went with a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones combo that may not be the best duo on paper but they do have potential each and every week to put up some big numbers especially in a matchup like New Orleans this week that could be a back and forth type of game.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Josh Gordon would be the make or break play this week and to be honest he might hold that title for the past four years. He has all the talent in the world but with off field issues and with him playing on the Cleveland Browns it limits his upside some weeks. This could be a week where most DFS players skip past the Browns/Bears game as there doesn’t appear to be much appeal on paper.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think Mark Ingram is a value play in the second round. The New Orleans backfield is always one that gets overlooked by the top 3 or 4 backs each week and in reality, both Ingram and Kamara should be considered a top 3 choice each and every week. Ingram is getting all the goal line looks and could be a guy that not only puts up yards this week but finds the end zone.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I am going to go with Mike Evans here as he finally had a touchdown last week against the Falcons and has a healthy Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers appeared to not give up on the season last week and played a strong game right until the end. I would expect the same type of performance this week against the Panthers on the road in a game where you would expect them to get blown out but they could have some of that never give up spirit left in them and that in itself could lead to a big game from Evans.
dan hindery - SLOT 6
Overview - Dan went against the grain and selected a quarterback (Cam Newton) in the first round. This strategy tends to lower the value of other positions, but this week's game slate has a bigger selection of talent. Dan Was able to draft two capable backs in Melvin Gordon and Devonta Freeman, plus two decent receivers in Tyreek Hill and Zach Ertz. Ertz over Kelce was a bit surprising, but I can make a case for both to be worthwhile picks this week. Ertz has scored in 7 of 12 games this year (58%) and this week's matchup against Oakland is one to exploit. Nick Foles may not be as nimble and athletic as Carson Wentz, but he picked up where Wentz left off with a four-touchdown game against the Giants last week. Ertz was a big part of the offense, which doesn't appear to be much different than what it was with Wentz. Tyreek Hill has three touchdowns in the last three games and is fourth in the league in this scoring format since Week 11. His matchup against Miami is one that could pay big dividends. This team has the potential to make some noise if Newton dominates as many people project.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
With a full 16-Game slate, this is the deepest pool of running back options I can remember. It makes an “upside down” drafting strategy completely viable, especially from the back half of the first round. I knew I wanted to grab Cam Newton at 1.06. He is one of the few players at any position in Week 16 with a floor and ceiling combination that stands out above the crowd at his position. I drafted him here last week and happily go back to the well in a fantastic matchup at home against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers defense has been decimated by injuries, has no pass rush and a leaky secondary. They also have nothing to play for and are facing a short week after a tough Monday night loss.
I strongly considered passing on running back at 2.01 as well and would have if I was 100% sold on any of the receiving options. I almost pulled the trigger on DeAndre Hopkins or Rob Gronkowski but decided Melvin Gordon brought slightly more upside. He has been consistently seeing 19+ carries every week and should now start seeing 7-10 targets in the passing game as well with Austin Ekeler injured. Gordon turned 8 targets into 91 receiving yards last week.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Tyreek Hill is my make-or-break guy. He has a decent floor because he will catch a handful of short passes every week. However, in the half-point PPR scoring, those don’t add up to too many fantasy points. He is almost entirely dependent upon hitting at least one deep touchdown to really be worth the pick in a 6-Team Draft. In fact, of Hill’s 20 career touchdowns, 16 of them have come from at least 30 yards out. He has six touchdowns of at least 56 yards just this season. Against a Miami defense that has given up a lot of long passing plays, Hill has a 50-50 shot of at least one long touchdown and whether he hits one or not will have a big impact on the success of my team.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Devonta Freeman with the last pick of the draft at 5.06 was great value. Most weeks, the starting running back in a projected shootout who was coming off of a 194-yard performance the prior week would be a top-10 overall pick. However, the depth at running back pushed Freeman down.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I will keep mentioning the depth at running back because I think it’s one of the themes of the week. It is at least 14 deep with strong options. In addition to the 12 taken in this draft, both Christian McCaffrey and Alex Collins went undrafted.
McCaffrey put up 136 total yards and scored a touchdown last week against Green Bay and faces an injury-riddled Tampa Bay defense that was just torched by Devonta Freeman for 194 total yards and a touchdown.
Collins has averaged 16.2 carries and 4.2 targets per game since Week 9 and has averaged 1.0 touchdowns per game over that stretch. The Ravens are at home as massive 13.5-point favorites against the Colts on Saturday night. The likely game script points to a heavy workload for Collins. The Colts have given up the 9th-most Draft points to opposing running backs this season.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
