Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 13 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 8 DRAFT:
1.01 Keith Roberts
1.02 James Brimacombe
1.03 Dan Hindery
1.04 Devin Knotts
1.05 Sean Settle
1.06 Justin Howe
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
keith roberts - SLOT 1
Overview - Keith's draft is loaded with Top talent, but some of his matchups are in the unfavorable category which gives me pause on my level of excitement. LeVeon Bell has been a mainstay as the Top pick for several weeks and he has largely come up big with his results. This week at Cincinnati should not be any different. Keenan Allen is arguably one of the best three wide receivers in football over the last few weeks. He's an excellent selection at the end of round two and the matchup against Cleveland looks to be in his favor as well. DeAndre Hopkins continues to perform at a high level despite the average or subpar play from Tom Savage. Getting Allen and Hopkins at the 2-3 turn could yield two Top 5 receiver finishes. That's excellent value. The next two picks is where I thought Keith may have reached or made some questionable decisions. Russell Wilson is a creator and has shown that he can produce against tough opponents, especially at home. Having said that, Philadelphia is playing on another level on defense and offense. I'm not thrilled with the selection of Wilson this week, especially not the second quarterback off the board. If Wilson can perform his magic once again, all is forgiven, but I am on the other side of that fence. Kareem Hunt has been a disappointment for several weeks now, but he's still in demand based on his performance in the early part of the season. I understand the contrarian play here for Hunt as a 5th round pick. In some circles, this pick may be lauded, but until he and the Chiefs offense turns it around I would advise to stay away. In this format, you need all of your picks to contribute and be effective. There is some degree of risk-reward involved but I would argue that Jamaal Williams vs Tampa Bay would've been a better pick. Hunt will be facing a tough Jets run defense on the road, where New York has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 1 and only two rushing touchdowns by a running back since Week 6.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The first overall pick always makes life easier, as I plugged in the obligatory LeVeon Bell selection and moved on to thinking about how I would handle the turn 2/3 turn. My initial strategy was to go RB/WR with those picks and had Jordan Howard still been available, I would have executed that strategy. However, when I saw three viable running backs still left on the board that I could pick later in the draft, I decided to pull the trigger on the high-floor, high-volume PPR gems of DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen. I was then very pleased with how the rest of the draft turned out as I grabbed my top quarterback Russell Wilson just before everyone else grabbed their guys in addition to taking Kareem Hunt in the sixth round, which I view as a steal as I’ll get to later.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
My pair of bookend running backs taken in the first and sixth round will be what makes or breaks my week. Any time you take LeVeon Bell with the first pick, he has to perform at a high level. Bell is averaging over 28 touches per game as the Steelers are running most of their offense through him. He amassed 182 yards from scrimmage in his last meeting with the Bengals in Week 7. The Bengals are giving up the fifth most rushing yards per game (126.6) and have allowed opposing running backs to haul in the 68 receptions this season, tying them for second-most in the league. These are both signs that Bell should have a good shot at repeating or exceeding his Week 7 outing, which is exactly what I would need out of my #1 overall pick.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Kareem Hunt is absolutely my best value this week. I know, Hunt has had a very rough stretch over his last four games, failing to exceed 80 yards from scrimmage in a single game after breaking 100 yards in each of his first five games. Hunt has also failed to find the end zone since Week 3—another reason why fantasy owners are extremely displeased and reluctant to even draft him this week. While the Chiefs have been criticized for not involving Hunt as much in recent weeks, it really has just been two games (Weeks 9 and 12) in which Hunt was not given much of an opportunity with only 13 and 12 touches. In the other two games (Weeks 8 and 11), Hunt touched the ball just as many times, if not more, than what he did in their first seven games. The touches are there for him to be productive. Hunt just needs to be given better quality opportunities with play-calling that gives him the ability to make the big plays he thrived on earlier this season. His matchup this week is actually pretty solid, despite the persona that the Jets have a great run defense. The Jets actually rank below average using DVOA against the run, giving up 4.1 yards per rush attempt and the league’s seventh most rushing yards per game (120.4). Hunt had been a perennial first round pick in our Draft formats since Week 1, and after falling to 2.01 last week, now people almost didn’t draft him at all. Right, wrong, or indifferent, I am not quite ready to give up on him as we have seen this guy have one of the highest ceilings of any player in the league.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Without a doubt, Davante Adams is the guy I would have taken. Had I not been given the opportunity to draft both Hopkins and Allen as I was, Adams was a guy on my radar for a 5th/6th round selection as my second receiver. The Packers have one of the best passing matchups of the week as they face a Buccaneers secondary that has been absolutely crushed on almost a weekly basis. We all saw what Julio Jones did to them last week as he was matched up against cornerback Robert McClain. Adams now draws that very same matchup while Brett Hundley looks to finally be finding a groove through six starts this season.
JAMES BRIMACOMBE - SLOT 2
Overview: James' team is filled with talent, promise and decent matchups. Each pick is selected at value or better than value, with the exception of one. I am not keen on Marshawn Lynch on a Raiders team that has struggled offensively at times this year. The loss of Michael Crabtree and potentially Amari Cooper this week gives me even more pause on the success of the Raiders offense. The saving grace is that the tanking Giants will be their opponent, making this the only reason why Lynch would be a good pick here. Lynch scored last week and he has three touchdowns in the last three games, however he has only had one game since Week 1 where he had more than 13 carries - and it was last week. He totaled 26 carries last week against Denver, but only amassed 67 yards (2.5 yards per carry). James (and others) may see the view differently in that Lynch will be a focal point of an offense devoid of receiving playmakers and the matchup against New York solidifies this expectation. Me, I am a bit leery of this pick and would occupy the belief that the glass is more empty than full for Lynch. A better pick in my opinion, would have been Jamaal Williams against a reeling Buccaneers defense. As for the rest of James' team - I am fully on board with the picks and the places where they were drafted. If last week is any indication of this week's production, Todd Gurley, Julio Jones and Tom Brady may be the best three picks in the entire draft.
JAMES ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
There were some strong running backs at the top of the board this week and drafting 2nd overall I felt like I had my choice out of Gurley, Kamara, Fournette, McCoy and Ingram. I went with Gurley based on his potential volume and followed up the rest of my draft with high volume players in strong situations this week. I didn’t get a QB/WR stack this week and that is always something I like to look for in this format but I felt comfortable just having Tom Brady by himself as he tends to spread the ball around to all his receivers.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Marshawn Lynch is the wildcard this week as he was my RB2 and almost always in the DRAFT format if you wait past the second round to take your second running back you are grabbing a make or break you type of player. Lynch is coming off a heavy workload against the Broncos last week and will most likely be relied upon again this week with Crabtree suspended and Cooper injured.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I always tend to get Alshon Jeffery as my last pick in these drafts. He always seems to be a guy that goes over looked and maybe it is because of the strong season that Zach Ertz is having and stealing some of the targets and touchdown looks. Jeffery has been on fire of late recording touchdowns in his last 4 games and he will be looked at heavily this week on the road in Seattle where the Eagles might be forced to throw the ball even more than normal.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Jamaal Williams is the name that comes to mind as I was considering him over Marshawn Lynch as my RB2. Much like Lynch, Williams is coming off a strong game against the Steelers where he scored twice and totaled 135 yards. Williams gets a strong matchup against the Buccaneers this week who just gave up 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Tevin Coleman.
dan hindery - SLOT 3
Overview - Dan's team includes talent at all positions with favorable matchups across the board. The running back combo of Alvin Kamara and Melvin Gordon will be difficult to beat, especially with the way Kamara has been playing. Gordon is capable of putting up big numbers any given week and this week's matchup against Cleveland figures to be a game that could feature him early and often. Mike Evans has not scored since Week 7 but that could come to an end this week with the return of Jameis Winston. Green Bay has also been kind to opposing offenses, allowing 8 touchdowns to wide receivers in the last five games. Adam Thielen continues to be a forgotten commodity in this format. His 1,006 receiving yards is third most in the league and he has the same amount of scores (3) as Julio Jones, however Thielen has been a more consistent receiver week in and week out. Dan's last pick, Philip Rivers, gives him a QB-RB stack against the Browns. There are worse quarterbacks to choose from, that's for sure. Rivers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in seven of eleven games this year and Cleveland has allowed at least two passing touchdowns in eight of their eleven games. This is a great matchup for the Chargers offense, particularly Rivers and Gordon - and Dan has them both on his roster.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The one thing that stands out this week from a player value standpoint is that there are no truly elite options at either quarterback or wide receiver/tight end. The great players (Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, etc.) who are typically worth targeting in the early rounds each have very difficult matchups. Due to this, there isn’t much separation between QB1 and QB6 or WR1 and WR12. Thus, I knew I wanted to grab a pair of top running backs and fill out my roster at quarterback and wide receiver/tight end later.
1.03 is a bit of a no-man’s land this week. There is a drop off in projections from LeVeon Bell and Todd Gurley to the next tier. 1.03 felt early for Alvin Kamara, but nobody else stood out with that pick. I was extremely pleased that Melvin Gordon slid to me at 2.04. I like him as a top-5 overall option in 6-Team Drafts this week. The wide receivers and tight ends mostly went off of the board similarly to how I have them ranked, but I was still pleased to land a pair of high floor/high ceiling pass catchers like Mike Evans and Adam Thielen later in the draft. Philip Rivers is a nice option in the final round with a similar projection to the top quarterbacks on the slate. He faces a Cleveland defense that has struggled in recent weeks and the dominant Chargers defense should set the offense up with great field position often on Sunday.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Alvin Kamara is my key guy. While he has been surprisingly consistent in recent weeks (22+ Draft points in four straight games), it feels risky to draft Kamara so early. Kamara crushed the Rams last week for 33.8 points despite touching the ball just 11 times. His usage is clearly much lower than the other top backs but yet, he has scored 6 touchdowns over the last four games and topped 115 total yards in every outing as well.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I love getting Melvin Gordon at 2.04 in a sneakily appealing matchup against the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers are massive 13.5-point home favorites, so the most likely game script sets up extremely well for Gordon to see heavy usage. He has seen 24, 22 and 24 total opportunities (carries plus targets) in the last there weeks and should see at least 20 touches in Week 13. The Browns 2nd ranked DVOA run defense is misleading. Cleveland has lost both Jamie Collins and Emmanuel Ogbah to season-ending injuries in recent weeks. Over the last five games, the Browns have allowed the 6th-most normalized fantasy points to opposing running backs and have been smashed the last two weeks by Leonard Fournette (111 rushing yards) and Joe Mixon (114 rushing yards).
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Zach Ertz is my highest-ranked player who went undrafted. Seattle’s defense is generally excellent but the one area they have had some trouble is against opposing tight ends. The Seahawks have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season and are now playing without Cam Chancellor. Ertz has been fantastic when healthy this season. He has at least 80 receiving yards in 5-of-10 games and already has scored 7 touchdowns. The Eagles are 6-point road favorites with a surprisingly solid implied team total of 26.8 points. Seattle is especially stout against the run, so most of Philadelphia’s offensive production should come through the air, where Ertz is the top target.
devin knotts - SLOT 4
Overview - Devin loaded up on productive skill players at receiver and running back before finishing his draft with a Cam Newton, Devin Funchess stack against what could be another week with a depleted Saints secondary. Leonard Fournette has had only one productive game since injuring his ankle, which is a little concerning, however this week's matchup against the Colts at home may be just what the doctor ordered. Devin's second pick Rob Gronkowski is coming off a two-score game against Miami and will face the Bills on the road who have given up only two touchdowns to tight ends this year - both at the hands of O.J. Howard in the same game. Outside of the Week 7 game against Tampa Bay, no tight end has caught more than 5 passes in a game and none have exceeded 57 yards. In Gronkowski's defense, he has not faced the Bills yet to stretch those numbers. Gronkowski is considered the exception to all trends, so we'll see what happens, but playing Buffalo late in the season on the road, is not an easy task. Especially a Bills team looking to make the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. Carlos Hyde is Devin's other running back, who has 18 receptions in the last three games with over 100 total yards in two of those games. Hyde is another player who is constantly overlooked in this draft format despite producing quality numbers each week. Devin has a big anchor attached to the Carolina passing game against New Orleans. If that tandem hits, it could be enough to propel Devin to a Top 2 finish this week.
devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy this week was that I had hoped I would be able to get Fournette early which is exactly what happened and then the second round I was hoping to either get another running back or Antonio Brown. When the running backs that I liked were taken, it made my choice a pretty easy one to pivot to Gronkowski who I believe is a first-round pick this week and did not expect him to be there when I took him. I typically will try to stack wide receiver and quarterback and while I wanted Tom Brady to pair with Gronkowski, James took him before me, so I settled on Cam Newton paired with Devin Funchess.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Devin Funchess is likely the player that will make or break me this week. If he can continue his pace that he has been on since Kelvin Benjamin was traded, this pick will be a home run and could win me the league this week, but Funchess is still hard to trust due to his lack of sustained success in the NFL. Over his last three games Funchess has averaged 95 yards and has two touchdowns in those three games so if can continue this pace in a decent matchup against the Saints secondary that is banged up I will be in good shape.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
As I mentioned in the first question, Rob Gronkowski is an insane value in the second-round and I will take him in every draft I can this season. Rob Gronkowski who is from Buffalo has played six games in Buffalo and has gone for 94 yards or more in five of those six and scored a touchdown in five of those six including two games in which he scored two touchdowns. Gronkowski is one of the more emotional players in the league and typically I won’t buy into the narrative of coming home, but for this one I’m all over it this week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Robby Anderson is the player that I was surprised was not drafted and is the player that I would take if I could make one more player. Anderson has scored a touchdown in five straight games and has gone for 85 or more yards in each of those three games. It is hard to trust a Jets receiver and they are never one you want to target, but Anderson possesses the upside that you are looking for in a six-man Draft that could pay off big.
sean settle - SLOT 5
Overview - Sean has put together a team that has the potential to compete thanks to favorable matchups and a Saints QB-WR stack that could pay big dividends. LeSean McCoy and Jordan Howard have positive matchups against New England and San Francisco respectively with each being at home. McCoy figures to be a common piece in the Bills offensive attack against New England. At least one score seems inevitable and depending on the game script, it could mean multiple scores. The Bears have struggled to establish an identity with their passing game, which leaves Jordan Howard as the alternative default option to move the ball. Against San Francisco, he could see an extended amount of touches, including some goal line opportunities. A.J. Green in the fifth round seems criminal, especially with him being at home. Any given week, he is capable of scoring on a big play and accumulating yardage throughout the game. The matchup against Pittsburgh may detract some people, but at the end of the day, this is a divisional game that Green has excelled in before. Sean's biggest factor this week is probably going to be the Drew Brees, Michael Thomas stack. Carolina allowed two 100-yard receivers last week in a poor defensive effort. Prior to that game, they were the 2nd ranked defense in total yards. The only scenario where this stack could fall apart is if Carolina fails to stop the run and it dominates how the Saints move the ball and score. Carolina has allowed two rushing or receiving touchdowns to running backs since Week 5 and have not allowed a back to exceed 82 yards rushing in a game this year. If anything, Carolina will control the ground game, resulting in Brees to take to the air for short to intermediate ranged passes that Carolina often allows. This could easily be an 8-catch game for Thomas, which would make this stack worthwhile, especially if he can find the end zone.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The draft seemed to go in typical fashion with running backs taken across the board in the first round. I decided to follow suit with big play candidate LeSean McCoy even with all the issues in the Buffalo offense right now. I followed that with the best available and best matchup in my opinion with Jordan Howard against the 49ers. At this point my QB/WR duo that I was targeting first was Brady/Cooks but Brady came off the board early. I went with a Michael Thomas and Drew Brees stack despite the lack of touchdowns recently this season. Sandwiched in between was AJ Green who is a big play machine every week, especially in a division rival game.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
It is not often you see a make or break out candidate out of your first pick in the draft, but that is what the struggles in the Buffalo offense has made a reality. McCoy has still been a PPR machine and has the ability to break through any time he touches the ball.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
AJ Green with my final pick has to be the best value. He is rated the 10th WR on many draft boards but this is after spending most of the season in the top 5. He has a tough matchup with the Steelers, but Green always seems to come through for the Bengals when needed. Taking AJ Green with the second to last pick of the Draft was definitely a steal.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Doug Baldwin would be the one guy I would have taken given the opportunity. It may look like a little bit of a reach considering there are 18 guys ranked ahead of him this week, but he has shown big play chemistry with Russell Wilson all season and this week should be no exception. It would have been especially ideal if I could have stacked him with Russell Wilson as that has been a go to stack all season.
justin howe - SLOT 6
Overview - Justin did a great job selecting picks at value from the 6-slot of the draft including Carson Wentz, the top quarterback in the league. It's hard to believe he lasted until the last pick in this draft. Yes, he has a tough road matchup at Seattle, but it's not an impossible matchup, especially the way the Eagles have been dominating their opponents this season, particularly lately. Deshaun Watson scored four touchdowns and threw for 400 yards at Seattle earlier this year and now the Seahawks are dealing with multiple absences in their secondary. Carson Wentz is arguably the most valuable pick in the draft. Justin was able to secure Mark Ingram and Antonio Brown at the 1-2 turn and then Brandin Cooks and Christian McCaffrey at the 3-4 turn. McCaffrey is dealing with some shoulder soreness and missed practice on Wednesday, but there has been no inidication that he will miss this week's pivotal game against New Orleans. Justin's team has the chance to come up big this week and his draft further exemplifies the strategy of waiting at quarterback in this format.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This was a strict Best Player Available approach. I typically insist on a [pair of running backs to open things, but it felt foolhardy to pass on Antonio Brown in Round 2. This week features a lot of attractive RB plays, with roughly So, I'm all set with Brown, the world's best receiver and fantasy producer, and since there's no salary cap (and far less opportunity cost than in a salary cap league) I'm not put off by his rough history against the Bengals. I feel I landed a top-4 overall scorer with the seventh pick, and as I'd expected, one of my top-10 RB plays (Christian McCaffrey) tumbled to me in Round 4. And with my other picks, I lightened my typical insistence upon a QB/WR stack in favor of big play dynamo Brandin Cooks and touchdown leader Carson Wentz.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Christian McCaffrey was on the short list of RB options that would make me comfortable in passing on the position in Round 2. He's a volatile guy, so it's nerve-wracking. But I like his chances of scoring on the level of some of the guys from the first two rounds. We all know McCaffrey is a pass-game dynamo, capable of stretching his committee usage to 18+ touches on any given week. He's starting to look like the Panthers' most efficient running back, and he's a big part of the red zone offense, with a hefty 10 touches from there over the past 3 weeks. McCaffrey could certainly post a 50-yard, 2-reception game and crush me here. But his ceiling is considerable, especially in a matchup with a 48-point Vegas projection.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I'd expected Brandin Cooks to join the rest of his tier and vanish before my third pick, but I was fortunate enough to scoop him with the 18th pick. That comes off as entirely too low: Cooks is on a tear right now, averaging 102 over the last 3 weeks. The Buffalo pass defense is an aggressive one, and it's blown up horribly in their faces of late. Opposing WR1s A.J. Green (7 catches, 189 yards, 1 touchdown), Mike Evans (7 for 88 and 1), and Keenan Allen (12 for 259 and 2) can certainly attest to the likelihood of slipping past the Buffalo cornerbacks. I understand the WR picks made before this one, but again, pick 18 is just far too low.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I wouldn't sneeze at a Wentz-Zach Ertz pairing. Ertz has become the touchdown-generating stud we've always foreseen, and he's drawn a red zone target in every game but two thus far. The Seahawks pass defense is badly dinged up and has struggled against opposing tight ends, allowing short recent touchdowns to the likes of Jermaine Gresham and Levine Toilolo. Ertz's volume reappeared last week, and he's still on the forefront of the Eagles' touchdown-happy pass game. He'd fit nicely had I waited until my final pick for my WR2 (which I usually do).
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
