Friday Update: Weather concerns in Cleveland might put a damper on the outlook of Josh Gordon and DeShone Kizer, who will be discussed throughout the article. Check weather updates Sunday and watch what the Vegas total does. If the total goes down multiple points and/or if the wind is 20 miles per hour or more, exercise caution in using players from that game.
Graphics Tutorial and Reader’s Guide
I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so I provided a guide at the beginning of a past version of this article.
- Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
- Red text is a bad matchup.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.
Bonus: Thursday Night Football Section!
This may as well be called "Ode to Alvin Kamara," but these stats are something we wanted to share this week.
- New Orleans targets running backs on 35.1% of its targets, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Atlanta allows targets to running backs at a 29.2% rate, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Kamara yards from scrimmage, last five games: 152 vs. TB, 138 at BUF, 116 vs. WAS, 188 at LAR, 126 vs. CAR.
- Kamara receptions, last five games: 6, 5, 6, 6, 5
- Kamara has eight total touchdowns in that five-game stretch.
- Kamara is the overall RB3 in PPR leagues this season, 9.9 points behind LeVeon Bell and 16.2 behind Todd Gurley.
- Kamara (86 carries, 60 receptions) has 190 fewer touches than Bell and 125 fewer than Gurley.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Follow the Targets
- Funnel Watch
- The Weakest Links
- Are You New Here?
- How Will They Score?
- Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Washington Redskins)
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Oakland Raiders)
- Houston Texans (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
- New York Jets (at Denver Broncos)
- Cleveland Browns (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Follow the Targets
In this section, we'll look at the worst passing defenses and dissect how they allow their fantasy production. This week, we're looking at the defenses that have allowed the most yards per game since Week 8 and how they've allocated their targets, yards, and touchdowns over the course of the whole season.
| Team | RB Tgt% | Yds/Gm Rank | TD | WR Tgt% | Yds/Gm Rank | TD | TE Tgt% | Yds/Gm Rank | TD |
| Green Bay Packers | 22.8% | 25 | 3 | 58.9% | 28 | 13 | 18.3% | 5 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 21.4% | 12 | 1 | 56.4% | 7 | 11 | 22.2% | 10 | 2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18.2% | 2 | 1 | 58.6% | 27 | 9 | 23.1% | 19 | 4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 23.0% | 32 | 3 | 53.6% | 14 | 15 | 23.4% | 22 | 4 |
| Houston Texans | 17.0% | 4 | 3 | 58.0% | 25 | 13 | 25.1% | 26 | 7 |
| New York Giants | 20.1% | 14 | 2 | 55.1% | 26 | 11 | 24.8% | 31 | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | 20.3% | 5 | 1 | 57.6% | 15 | 10 | 22.1% | 16 | 3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20.8% | 27 | 2 | 59.4% | 24 | 17 | 19.8% | 14 | 4 |
We've discussed Green Bay here plenty of times before, and we saw them continue to struggle, allowing 270 yards and 2 touchdowns to Jameis Winston in his return from injury. This week, Cleveland hosts Green Bay, and if the way Green Bay allows the many yards they allow is any indication, players such as Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, and Duke Johnson Jr might be busy. The following tweet won't be the last one you see about Gordon in this article.
Josh Gordon's first game since 2014: 76% of snaps, ran a route on 89% of Kizer's dropbacks, 11 targets, 4-85-0 while facing Casey Hayward.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 4, 2017
Pittsburgh seems like the "one of these things is not like the other" member of this group, but since Joe Haden went down, they have been terrible in the secondary. On Monday night, backup corner Coty Sensabaugh was benched in favor of rookie Cameron Sutton. Seattle isn't the "Legion of Boom" anymore due to their injuries, but their status on this list is buoyed by the 348 yards allowed to Carson Wentz last week. They bent but didn't break, however, allowing just 10 points in the game.
Tennessee has allowed 15+ fantasy points to a quarterback in four of its last five games, including 365 yards to Tom Savage in Week 13. Jimmy Garoppolo performed efficiently at Chicago in his first start. Only limited volume and zero touchdowns kept him from a bigger game. Houston should help in those departments.
Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 41.9 yards per possession yesterday, the 7th highest PaYd/Drive game for a QB this season.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 5, 2017
Funnel Watch
A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).
| Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | %PassYd | %RushYd |
| Indianapolis Colts | 271.6 | 108.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 245.3 | 114.9 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| Green Bay Packers | 242.9 | 111.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| Oakland Raiders | 241.1 | 104.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| Houston Texans | 235.8 | 104.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 225.1 | 68.1 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
Last week, we discussed Philadelphia's status as a "funnel" defense being due, in part, to game scripts against weak competition. Last week, neither of those factors benefited their run vs. pass numbers above, but Seattle's lack of run game did. This week, they are a two-point underdog to the L.A. Rams. Despite the tough-on-paper matchup, Todd Gurley is worth paying up for in all formats due to his touch volume superiority over every other back on the main slate. Gurley led the team in targets last week. Speaking of targets, if Robert Woods is out again, Cooper Kupp is worth a GPP dart throw. There might be many who were burned by him last week, which can suppress ownership.
In the last section, we saw that Green Bay is bad against the pass. Here, we see they're so bad against the pass that most teams don't even bother running. Cleveland will throw, and if last week -- when they threw to Gordon despite being covered by one of the league's best corners -- is any indication, they'll throw to Gordon plenty.
Per PFF, Casey Hayward allowed 76 yards in coverage against Josh Gordon. That’s the 7th-most yardage Hayward has allowed in a single game from 2015-17. Unreal.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 4, 2017
This isn't a passing game-specific item because it pertains to a running back, but LeSean McCoy's passing game involvement and run game involvement make him viable every week. Ang running backs as home favorites always have appeal. But when McCoy, in particular, is a home favorite, he is generally a fantastic play.
LeSean McCoy has absolutely smashed as a home favorite since joining the Bills. Via the Labs trends tool: https://t.co/iyea9osOCS pic.twitter.com/L31KRTE9d5
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 27, 2017
"Runnel" Defense
Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run (hence, "runnel" defense) Side note: I didn't create this term; I saw it on Twitter last season, but I can't recall who posted it. If you know, drop me a line so I can give proper credit.
| Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | %PassYd | %RushYd |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 205.7 | 129.8 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 210.3 | 123.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 211.2 | 122.8 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 167.1 | 115.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 207.8 | 113.2 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
Semaje Perine leads a committee against a bad run defense. Despite the poor projected outlook of his offense, his touches come somewhat cheap. In DFS, Perine is a solid cash game play, even as a road underdog. He may end the week as a favorite play because he allows you to up and roster Gurley without breaking the bank at the running back spots. The rest of these are difficult spots to recommend. In theory, Jordan Howard should be in play against Cincinnati, but that game features two of the slowest teams in the NFL. And Howard isn't a part of the game when Chicago falls behind. Philadelphia's run game could have some success against the L.A. Rams, but choosing which back to use is a difficult task. Jacksonville's status is improving against the run, and Seattle doesn't run the ball.
The Weakest Links
For the last couple weeks, we've discussed Kansas City allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. In the targets section above, we've highlighted thei
