#Trendspotting: Week 11 - The Skeleton Key

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 11 - The Skeleton Key Ryan Hester Published 11/17/2017

Graphics Tutorial

I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so I provided a guide at the beginning of a past version of this article.

Reader's Guide

  • Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
  • Red text is a bad matchup.
  • If a player's name is green, it means that he exceeded 2.75x value on his DraftKings salary that week.
  • If a name is red, it means that player was under 2x his value.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Keep Your Eye On the Targets

Last week's exercise is this space was well-received, so we're going back to the well.

The table below looks at the bottom eight (8) pass defenses in terms of yards allowed per game and shows how those defenses allow targets, yards, and touchdowns. The teams are listed from most yards per game to least. Here are some quick notes on how to decipher the chart:

  • Tampa Bay allows 61.1% of their targets to wide receivers, and they're 23rd in the NFL in yards per game yielded to wide receivers
  • They've surrendered 10 touchdowns to wideouts.
  • The New York Giants have yielded nine (9) touchdowns to tight ends (so much more on this later).
  • Houston allows 26.5% of its total targets and the sixth-most (i.e. 27th-ranked) yards per game to tight ends.
Team RB Tgt% Yds/Gm Rank TD WR Tgt% Yds/Gm Rank TD TE Tgt% Yds/Gm Rank TD
New England Patriots 20.4% 31 3 60.5% 32 9 19.1% 10 5
Indianapolis Colts 17.8% 28 2 63.3% 30 8 19.0% 13 5
New York Giants 19.4% 18 2 58.2% 23 8 22.4% 30 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.9% 25 2 61.1% 29 10 15.9% 8 3
Kansas City Chiefs 16.5% 1 0 64.9% 31 15 18.7% 28 1
Houston Texans 17.3% 4 3 56.2% 28 12 26.5% 26 4
Philadelphia Eagles 21.8% 21 4 58.0% 25 6 20.2% 22 4
Detroit Lions 59.7% 24 1 59.7% 22 8 16.8% 27 2
                   

Action(able) Items

  • Oakland doesn't target its running backs much (16th-highest ratio in the NFL), and New England isn't bad against tight ends. Sprinkling exposure to both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree would exploit the biggest on-paper weakness of the Patriots.
  • It's Travis Kelce Week (more on that later), but with yards being a better predictor of success than touchdowns, a nice pivot could be Tyreek Hill. The Giants are ranked lower against wide receivers in yards per game than they are against tight ends.
  • On the other side of that game, Kansas City could be in store for some tight end touchdown regression. They're 28th in yards per game allowed to tight ends but have only yielded one touchdown. They're also 31st in yards per game allowed to wide receivers, making both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard reasonable plays, despite a low team total. Speaking of Shepard:

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Funnel Watch

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).

Team PaYd/Gm RuYd/Gm NYd/Att Yd/Rush %PassYd %RushYd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 266.4 109.9 7.2 3.9 70.8% 29.2%
Philadelphia Eagles 249.4 66.4 5.8 3.6 79.0% 21.0%
Arizona Cardinals 245.1 97.7 6.1 3.6 71.5% 28.5%
Houston Texans 253.8 96.9 7.2 3.7 72.4% 27.6%
Cleveland Browns 230.6 86.4 6.8 3.1 72.7% 27.3%
             

Action(able) Items

  • Miami scores 61.3% of its points via passing touchdowns, the highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay yields 70.8% of its total yards via the pass, the ninth-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Philadelphia yields 79.0% of its total yards via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL, while Dallas gains just 59.6% of its total yards via the pass, the fourth-lowest ratio in the NFL.
  • Cleveland's 3.1 yards per rush, the lowest total in the NFL (next-lowest are Minnesota's and Baltimore's 3.4).
  • Cleveland's 72.7% ratio of passing yardage allowed is the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Cleveland has allowed 60+ rushing yards to one running back (and none have more than the 66 allowed to Javorius Allen since Week 2).
  • Of all running backs with 10+ touches against Cleveland, the average rushing output is 41.5 yards and total yardage output is 60.9.

Further Commentary

Regardless of their opponent this season, Cleveland's ground game has been strong. With Jacksonville projected to score over 22 points, the natural thought is to look to the passing game. Allen Hurns will be out, leaving plenty of targets for Marqise Lee once again. But a surprise candidate for production could be Marcedes Lewis. Look at how Cleveland allows its targets, receptions, and yards.

CLE vs. TEs

Additionally, the only game in which Blake Bortles has thrown for multiple touchdowns this season was the game in which Lewis scored three times. Lewis is a GPP dark-horse this week.

"Runnel" Defense

Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run (hence, "runnel" defense) Side note: I didn't create this term; I saw it on Twitter last season, but I can't recall who posted it. If you know, drop me a line so I can give proper credit.

Team RuYd/Gm PaYd/Gm Yd/Rush NYd/Att %RushYd %PassYd
Jacksonville Jaguars 120.7 165.1 4.6 4.6 42.2% 57.8%
Baltimore Ravens 125.9 184.7 4.2 5.5 40.5% 59.5%
Los Angeles Chargers 135.1 208.7 4.7 5.5 39.3% 60.7%
Los Angeles Rams 118.0 204.1 4.5 5.6 36.6% 63.4%
Atlanta Falcons* 113.7 198.2 4.3 5.4 36.4% 63.6%
New Orleans Saints* 110.9 201.4 4.7 5.6 35.5% 64.5%
             

Action(able) Items

  • Jacksonville's rush defense has been great since their acquisition of Marcell Dareus, but they're still more susceptible to the run than the pass.
  • Isaiah Crowell is nursing a shoulder injury, so keep an eye on Duke Johnson Jr. If Crowell can't go, Johnson makes for a nice contrarian DFS option as he'll be game script-independent due to his dual-threat abilities.

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What's New?

Here at #Trendspotting, our matchup charts show a whole season's worth of data on each team. But trends can be short-term items as well. Whether it's due to a player acquisition, an injury, or perhaps a team just quitting on their coach, things happen to teams that change the way the play. Here's a look at a couple of those instances.

Galloping vs. the Broncos

It wasn't long ago (the Week 8 column, to be exact) that we were saying this was a matchup to avoid. But since Orleans Darkwa came to town and put up 112 rushing yards on 27 carries, things have changed. Perhaps Darkwa and that bitter, shocking loss to the Giants was the "inciting event" here; since then, Denver's offense has looked terrible, and its defense has lost its edge as a result.

Since Week 6 (including that game), Denver is allowing 28.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, fourth-most in the NFL. The individual numbers aren't egregious, but look at what the following tandems have done:

  • Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead: 24 carries, 91 yards, 1 touchdown
  • Rex Burkhead/James White: 6 receptions, 38 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • Corey Clement/Jay Ajayi/LeGarrette Blount: 29 carries, 165 yards, 3 touchdowns

The following is an indictment on the entire defense, but the run game hasn't helped matters.

Disgruntled Players Don't Play Well

The "inciting event" here is easy; the team has given up on its head coach. It started in Week 6, when slot corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was suspended for an argument with his coaches. From that point forward, the following has happened:

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