Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I am attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Tom Brady ($9,500) + Brandin Cooks ($7,600) = $17,100
Facing No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 15 ranked pass defense allowing 223.4 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Patriots at 29 points and Dolphins at 18 points
Game Line - New England Patriots - 11
The New England Patriots travel to Miami on Sunday to take on the Dolphins in an AFC East matchup in Week 14. The Patriots have the highest implied total of the week (29) and will not have problems putting points on the board versus the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have given up 43 passing plays of 20 or more yards in 2017 and only four teams in the league have given up more of these types of plays. Miami has surrendered 22 scores through the air and only six teams across the league have allowed more passing touchdowns.
The Dolphins do not generate much pressure on the passer and have only sacked the quarterback 21 times in 2017. Only three teams have fewer sacks this year. One of Brady’s strengths as a passer is his ability to move subtly in the pocket to buy time to allow routes to develop. Because the Dolphins struggle to pressure the passer, their secondary will be forced to cover the Patriots receiving options for too long, and I would expect Brady to pick apart this secondary.
Brady entered last week’s game on fire having thrown for 10 touchdowns in the Patriots three games since the Week 9 bye. He was shut down last week against Buffalo, but just two weeks ago when the Patriots took on the Dolphins at home in Week 12, Brady threw for four touchdowns.
The Patriots are without tight end Rob Gronkowski this week due to a suspension, but they have plenty of options in place. Brandin Cooks is the vertical threat in this offense, and he caught 6 passes for 83 yards and a score in this matchup two weeks ago. He is a very intriguing option if we are expecting an uptick in volume.
Pivot: Wide receiver Chris Hogan ($7,000) is a risky play as he should be returning from a long absence but if he is ready to go, he will be heavily targeted in short to intermediate parts of the field. No one can replace Gronkowski but someone has to replace his target share, and that could easily be Hogan in this game.
Philip Rivers ($8,100) + Keenan Allen ($8,400) = $16,500
Facing No. 12 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 13ranked pass defense allowing 222.4 yards per game
Game total - 46
Implied Totals - Chargers at 26 points and Chargers at 20 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers - 6
The Los Angeles Chargers bring the Washington Redskins into town on Sunday in Week 14. The Chargers started the season slowly but the Rivers/Allen combination has gone off over the past three games.
The Redskins have struggled to defend the pass as they have surrendered a 7.3-yard average and only ten teams have allowed more in the NFL. The Redskins have given up 20 scores through the air and only nine teams in the NFL have surrendered more in 2017.
The Redskins come into this game struggling on defense, particularly against the pass. They have allowed huge numbers to Saints quarterback Drew Brees (Week 11), Vikings quarterback Case Keenum (Week 10), Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (Week 9) and Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (Week 7).
The Chargers have been getting things done on offense through its passing game and that should continue this week. Rivers is truly playing excellent football and he should have plenty of chances in this matchup to take advantage of the Redskins poor play against the pass of late.
Allen has been targeted 48 times over his last four games coming off the bye. He has caught 37 passes for 484 yards and four scores over that span. This stack is safe and one that can pay off for GPP play in Week 14.
Pivot: Tight end Hunter Henry ($5,600) is in an excellent situation this week versus the league’s No. 20 ranked DVOA pass defense versus tight ends. Only ten teams in the NFL allow more attempts to the position than the Redskins and no team allows more yards per game to the position. Henry has the potential to get to three-times value in this game and is an excellent pivot from Allen.
Derek Carr ($7,700) + Michael Crabtree ($7,100) = $14,800
Facing No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 252.8 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Raiders at 21.5 points and Chiefs at 25.5 points
Game Line - Oakland Raiders + 4
The Oakland Raiders travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a Week 14 AFC West in Week 14. The Raiders may be without starting wide receiver Amari Cooper (questionable - ankle) as he has not practiced this week. Keep an eye out for Cooper’s status as the week goes on.
The Chiefs have struggled to defend the pass and are allowing an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Only nine teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Chiefs have given up 42 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only six teams in the league have given up more this year. They have also yielded 12 passing plays of 40 or more yards and that ranks last in the NFL.
The Chiefs are without cornerback Marcus Peters this week as they have suspended him for a temper tantrum stemming from a penalty flag that was thrown last week amongst other team-related issues. This is a massive loss for the Chiefs, and the Raiders should be able to attack the secondary in Week 14.
Also, only three teams in the NFL have generated fewer sacks than the 21 that the Giants have generated and that will allow Carr some level of comfort in the pocket. Carr will need Crabtree to step up and become the leader in targets this week, and if he can do that in this matchup he has a chance to do very nice things in this game.
The Chiefs are going to score points on the Raiders as both teams cannot generate pressure on the quarterback, and this game has a legitimate chance to go over the 47 point total because of the potent passing attacks at play. If the Chiefs push the Raiders and force them to throw the ball then we will see very good things from Carr and Crabtree.
Carr and Crabtree have a chance to get to three-times value here due to volume alone making this stack worth consideration for GPP play in Week 14.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Matthew Stafford ($8,000) + Marvin Jones ($7,000) = $15,000
Facing No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 267.3 yards per game
Game Total - 43
Implied Totals - Lions at 22 points and Buccaneers at 21 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions - 1
The Detroit Lions travel to Tampa Bay in Week 14 to take on the Buccaneers in Week 14. The Lions are driven by their passing attack as they struggle to run the ball, and if they are going to score three touchdowns in this game, the majority of those points will come via the pass. However, most importantly to anything written here is that Stafford has a banged up right hand and his status is still unclear, and that is primarily where the risk is in playing him.
The Buccaneers do not defend the pass well and are allowing an average of 7.9 yards per catch which is second worst in the NFL. The Buccaneers have given up 19 touchdowns via the pass and only 12 teams in the NFL have surrendered more in 2017.
Also, the Buccaneers have given up 43 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only four teams in the league have given up more this year. They have also yielded 10 passing plays of 40 or more yards and only two teams across the league have allowed more.
No team in the NFL has generated fewer sacks than the 17 the Buccaneers have generated, and that will be significant as Stafford is night and day when it comes to pressure. When he is kept clean in the pocket, he can pick apart defenses and make ridiculous throws into tight windows. When Stafford is pressured, he gets panicky and the passing game suffers. Stafford should have some level of comfort in the pocket this week and that is a big reason he is on this list.
However, as mentioned above, there is significant risk here as Stafford injured his right hand last week and his status is unclear as of this writing. This will be updated as the week moves along.
Jones has proven to be the Lions first option in their passing game when they want to push the ball down the field. He has consistently made plays down the field and will be looked at heavily in this game. Jones has been targeted 48 times in the Lions six games since their bye. He has scored five touchdowns over that span.
Stafford and Jones have an excellent matchup in Week 14 while super risky due to injury; this stack is worth heavy consideration for GPP play in Week 14.
Pivot: Wide receiver Golden Tate ($6,800) is always heavily targeted but those targets come near the line of scrimmage and that will not change this week. He should accumulate a bunch of catches and some yards after the catch, but playing him requires him to score and that has only happened three times this year. However, this is a phenomenal matchup and a pivot to Tate might get you away from the field as Jones could be highly owned this week.
DeShone Kizer ($6,400) + Josh Gordon ($6,700) = $13,100
Facing No. 21 ranked DVOA pass defense - No. 26 ranked pass defense allowing 242.9 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Browns at 19 points and Packers at 21.5 points
Game Line - Cleveland Browns + 3
The Cleveland Browns bring the Green Bay Packers into town for a Week 14 matchup. The Browns got a significant boost with the return of star wide receiver Josh Gordon last week, and they threw the ball at him a bunch in his first game back from a very long hiatus.
The Packers have struggled to defend the pass and are allowing an average of 7.8 yards per catch. Only two teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Packers have given up 19 touchdowns via the pass and only 12 teams have surrendered more in 2017. Also, the Giants have given up 42 passing plays of 20 or more yards and only six teams in the league have given up more this year.
Gordon is a devastating threat and is capable of making splash plays and he will have multiple opportunities in this game. The Browns threw the ball to Gordon 11 times last week when the Browns took on the Chargers, and if he gets that kind of volume in this game he will have a reasonable chance to get to three-times value at his price.
Kizer is going to make mistakes but he is also going to give Gordon a chance to win in contested-catch situations. Kizer is also going to rack up yardage with his feet and make plays out of structure via his ability to move outside the pocket. It is not unreasonable to see Gordon making a very big play or two in this game.
However, there is significant risk here as Gordon is playing his second game in multiple years and the Browns have a rookie quarterback at the helm. That alone makes it risky, and the Browns are forecast to score fewer than three touchdowns and relying on Gordon for them adds more risk to the stack.
Kizer and Gordon are super risky but due to big-play potential and price, this stack is worth consideration for GPP play in Week 14.
Pivot: Tight end David Njoku ($4,700) could be a big beneficiary of Gordon returning to the lineup as safety coverage is going to Gordon and that may allow Njoku to take advantage of a good matchup.
DEFENSE/RB STACKS
Rex Burkhead ($6,400) + New England Patriots ($5,100) = $11,500
The New England Patriots go on the road to take on the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 14 AFC East matchup. The Patriots are an 11-point road favorite, and they have been playing very well on offense in 2017. The Dolphins got starting quarterback Jay Cutler back from injury last week, but Cutler has thrown at least one interception in eight of ten games in 2017.
The Dolphins are the league’s No. 17 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. They are ranked No. 21 in yards allowed per game (116.5). The Dolphins have allowed nine rushing touchdowns in 2017 and only nine teams in the NFL have allowed more. The Dolphins yield 4.3 yards per carry and only five teams across the league allow a higher average.
Burkhead is the Patriots short-yardage back and he has been effective at scoring touchdowns recently. Running back Deion Lewis is also in the mix here, but it is Burkhead that is putting the ball in the endzone and if we are chasing touchdowns, then Burkhead is the way to go.
The game script calls for the Patriots defense to be in an excellent spot here as they will have great opportunity to make plays against a veteran quarterback proven to be capable of turning over the ball. The Patriots defense struggled out of the gate in 2017 but they have pulled it together and are playing well right now.
The game script looks outstanding for Burkhead as the Patriots should be up and pounding the ball while killing time in the second half of this game. Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive and it is an intriguing option for GPP play in Week 14.
Melvin Gordon ($8,600) + Los Angeles Chargers ($5,100) = $13,700
The Chargers bring the Redskins into town for a Week 14 tilt. The Chargers are a six-point home favorite facing an underperforming Redskins team and they should have a relatively easy time of things in this contest. The Chargers defense can generate pressure and they also do a nice job in coverage, and the Redskins offense will have its hands full in this one.
The Redskins are the league’s No. 16 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. They are ranked No. 22 in yards allowed per game (117.7), but they have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in 2017 and only seven teams in the NFL have surrendered more.
Gordon will get plenty of touches and that bolsters his floor, and I can see him getting 20+ total touches in this contest. The game script calls for the Chargers to be up in this game and running the ball to move the chains and kill time off the clock which is a boost for Gordon’s production.
The Chargers defense looks to be in a very good spot here as they will have great opportunity to make plays against the Redskins offense. The Chargers generate a lot of pressure from their defensive line with pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. There is potential for a bunch of sacks and a few turnovers for the Chargers in this contest.
The game script looks excellent for Gordon and the Chargers defense and this is a very intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 14.
Alfred Morris ($6,800) + Dallas Cowboys ($4,400) = $11,200
The Dallas Cowboys go on the road to face the New York Giants on Sunday for a Week 14 NFC East showdown. The Cowboys are a 4.5-point road favorite and they will absolutely establish the run early in this game.
The Giants are the league’s No. 24 ranked DVOA run defense in 2017. The Giants rank dead last in the NFL allowing 130.7 yards per game. Only five teams in the NFL allow an average higher than the 4.3 yards per carry the Giants allow.
This matchup has the potential to get a larger than normal amount of volume for Morris due to the point spread. Last week the Cowboys found something with Morris and they will look to keep that going this week. The Cowboys will score points and because of their offensive style, the path for Morris to amass production throughout the game is fairly pretty easy to see.
The Giants are struggling on offense and that should continue if they get behind and are forced to throw the ball to play catch up in Week 14. The Cowboys can generate pressure and should be able to force Manning to throw the ball early which could lead to production for the Cowboys defense.
From a game-script perspective, this is a good matchup and there is potential for both sides of this stack to produce, and they warrant consideration for GPP play in Week 14.
