Well, we've come to the end of another successful season. Thanks for being along for the ride. It feels like only yesterday when I made my preseason pick for the Seahawks to beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. The imortant part is that I didn't even pick the Broncos to win their division, and I had Carolina missing the playoffs entirely. Everyone's preseason picks are going to contain some silliness; I just wish I had kept the Cowboys and Chargers out of my top-10. Maybe if I didn't have the Redskins at 32, the rankings would have looked better. Or...you know what? Forget all that. We're not here to dwell on the past. We've got the Christmas of gambling coming up this weekend! Prop bets, and box pools, and the magic of Coldplay all in one glorious Sunday afternoon smorgasbord?!? My palms are sweaty already...
Let's get to the picks!
SUPER BOWL PICK
Carolina (-6) vs. Denver
Well, those of you who have been reading this piece for awhile know that I'm typically right around 55% on my overall picks in-season, but I haven't picked the Super Bowl correctly for...let's call it "a few years" now. So this is the year we flip the script! Have a terrible regular season, but then absolutely nail the Super Bowl. Boom!
Two years ago, I believed that the Denver offense was too much to overcome. Last year, I compounded that problem by giving Seattle all-timer status and wondering how New England could possibly be better. Two weeks ago, it was more of the same for me. I got caught up in the New England hype and crowned them AFC Champions before the playoffs even began. The much smarter people saw that game for what it was, that Denver's defense was far too much to overcome for New England. The thought process on my side was that the Patriot defense was at least enough to slow Denver's offense. And Denver's defense, as good as it was, was no match for Tom Brady and Gronk and Edelman and all the rest. So a TON of money came in on the Patriots all week, because it just seemed so obvious. Which brings us to this game.
It seems obvious again, right? Maybe it's just the people I know, but not many people are giving Denver a chance here. The Broncos have a better defense, sure. But Carolina's defense is no slouch. And offensively, Cam Newton and company will run circles around Denver's inability to move the ball down the field. It all seems too easy. A point spread of less than a touchdown? Free money, right? After all, Carolina is a first half team. And the Broncos are no longer built to come back against a big deficit. Once Cam waltzes into the end zone and dabs and Supermans and gives prizes to the kids in the front row, this game will be over about five minutes in. I admittedly can't really see a reason to go with Denver, other than the obvious: EVERYBODY IS GOING WITH CAROLINA.
Seriously, you've never heard a story of a bookie going out of business because he wasn't making enough money. While this certainly feels like Cam's year, a lot of people who are a lot smarter than me have talked about this Denver defense in legendary status terms. For the first time in his career, Peyton Manning doesn't really need to do anything other than not screw up in order for his team to compete. And let's dig a little bit deeper. We already know the Denver defense is better. So how about the offensive units? We're giving Carolina the big edge there due to Cam. Ok, I can buy that. But what other offensive skill guy other than Greg Olsen would even start for Denver? The backfields are probably a wash. And Denver's third-best receiver is probably better than Carolina's de-facto number one, Ted Ginn. This may just come down to, if Ginn catches the long bomb where he's wide open, the Panthers win. If Ginn drops the sure touchdown, they lose. I'm only half kidding there. I mean, look at the picture above this article - he even looks like he's dropping THAT one.
The game has a ton of cool subplots and storylines. As a Chargers fan since 1992, I'm not allowed to root for Denver. Which works out well for me at age 36, because I believe a federal law was passed that every white man over the age of 40 is required to root for the old school (read: slow boring white veteran) quarterback, while all the fun people are rooting for the "athletic" guy. So while I won't be pulling for the Broncos, I've always liked Peyton Manning and gets a raw deal in the Manning vs Brady comparisons. So it would help me there if he were to add another ring. I don't think they're getting nearly the credit they deserve, and if they do lose, it'll probably be late and close. Either way, looks like it's shaping up to be one heckuva game. Good luck everyone (even though clearly this is skills-based)!
Pick: Broncos
BEST BETS: All
LOCK: Denver Broncos
LAST WEEK
Overall: 1-1
Best Bets: 1-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 122-143 (46%)
Best Bets: 32-46 (41%)
Lock of the Week: 9-11 (45%)
POWER RANKINGS
1. Panthers 17-1 (1)
2. Broncos 14-4 (3)
3. Cardinals 14-4 (2)
4. Patriots 13-5 (4)
5. Chiefs 12-6 (5)
6. Seahawks 11-7 (6)
7. Steelers 11-7 (7)
8. Bengals 12-5 (8)
9. Vikings 11-6 (9)
10. Packers 11-7 (10)
11. Jets 10-6 (11)
12. Redskins 9-8 (12)
13. Texans 9-8 (13)
14. Bills 8-8 (14)
15. Rams 7-9 (15)
16. Raiders 7-9 (16)
17. Falcons 8-8 (17)
18. Eagles 7-9 (18)
19. Lions 7-9 (19)
20. Colts 8-8 (20)
21. Saints 7-9 (21)
22. Bears 6-10 (22)
23. Giants 6-10 (23)
24. Dolphins 6-10 (24)
25. Ravens 5-11 (25)
26. Bucs 6-10 (26)
27. Jaguars 5-11 (27)
28. Chargers 4-12 (28)
29. 49ers 5-11 (29)
30. Cowboys 4-12 (30)
31. Browns 3-13 (31)
32. Titans 3-13 (32)
