God I hate point spreads...but in terms of drama, it's tough to top some of those finishes. And now we find ourselves on the precipice of the greatest football weekend of the year. We've got the four best teams in football all playing, and the road teams involve: one team riding an 11-game winning streak...a two-time defending NFC champ...a rematch where the underdog mounted a monstrous comeback just a few weeks ago...and a league MVP and former Super Bowl champ trying to will his team to another NFC title game. Saying "this should be fun" is cheap. Riding bikes in the woods "should be fun". Going to get ice cream cones "should be fun". No...this should be amazing.
Let's get to the picks!
WILD CARD PICKS
New England (-5) vs. Kansas City
The Patriots and Cardinals are still my Super Bowl bet, but if New England is going to be tripped up en route to California, it's going to be in this game. We suspect that the two week layoff has allowed the Patriots to get healthy, but we can't be sure until we actually see them out there doing it. There's a lot of risk there, and that's not even accounting for the fact that even the talented HEALTHY players were playing some really uninspiring football down the stretch. Maybe they have that on/off switch and they'll charge it up just in time for primetime. But Kansas City shouldn't be thought of as a slouch, and I think people are finally coming around to realize just how nasty this defensive unit is. Hopefully it won't come down to a battle of the coaches, because then...well...
Pick: Chiefs
Arizona (-7) vs. Green Bay
Sorry Packers, you aren't fooling me. I'll give them all the credit in the world for showing up big in a playoff game after a horribly lackluster finish to the season. But what I should have put more stock in was the fact that they were playing the 11th-best team in this year's playoffs, and one of the worst playoff teams we've seen in quite some time. No such luck when they take on Arizona, fresh off a rough beatdown and with two weeks off to prep. I see this one getting away from the cheeseheads very early, and getting ugly.
Pick: Cardinals
Carolina (-1) vs. Seattle
I was all set to take Seattle to cover here, but the line is closer than I'd have liked it to be. Look, I understand it's still difficult to admit that this Panthers team went 15-1, but they did. There's no reason why a Seahawks team that was so wildly inconsistent from week to week (and sometimes from quarter to quarter) should be seen as a better team on a neutral field. It's just silly. Last week's game could have been their "scare", and now they'll just mow down the rest of the NFC. ORRR...it could have been a slightly overrated squad getting bailed out by a ridiculously improbable missed field goal, and now they have to travel to the team that was the best in football this year and led by the league MVP. Either way, this one shapes up to be by FAR the most fun game of the weekend. I'm assuming this goes the Carolina way and sets up the top two seeds in each conference playing for all the marbles the following Sunday, with storylines for days.
Pick: Panthers
Denver (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Realizing the Steelers are banged-up, I just don't see the Broncos taking this one by over a touchdown. If nothing else, Pittsburgh will keep the game close even at less than 100%. We've seen Peyton Manning throw the ball around a little bit against the Chargers. Ok great. Now he gets to take on the Steelers, in the playoffs, and a team that can hang 40 points on just about ANYONE. I'm not basing this selection on the result of what happened a few weeks ago when the Steelers won in Denver after coming from behind. But then again, you can't totally discount that either. This is a Broncos defense that has had to carry the inadequate offense for the better part of four months, and it's possible they're a little worn-down at this point. Just worn down enough to keep this one close.
Pick: Steelers
BEST BETS: All
LOCK: Arizona Cardinals
LAST WEEK
Overall: 1-3
Best Bets: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 119-140 (46%)
Best Bets: 29-43 (41%)
Lock of the Week: 9-9 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
1. Panthers 15-1 (1)
2. Cardinals 13-3 (2)
3. Broncos 12-4 (3)
4. Patriots 12-4 (4)
5. Chiefs 12-5 (6)
6. Seahawks 11-6 (7)
7. Steelers 11-6 (9)
8. Bengals 12-5 (5)
9. Vikings 11-6 (8)
10. Packers 11-6 (10)
11. Jets 10-6 (11)
12. Redskins 9-8 (12)
13. Texans 9-8 (13)
14. Bills 8-8 (14)
15. Rams 7-9 (15)
16. Raiders 7-9 (16)
17. Falcons 8-8 (17)
18. Eagles 7-9 (18)
19. Lions 7-9 (19)
20. Colts 8-8 (20)
21. Saints 7-9 (21)
22. Bears 6-10 (22)
23. Giants 6-10 (23)
24. Dolphins 6-10 (24)
25. Ravens 5-11 (25)
26. Bucs 6-10 (26)
27. Jaguars 5-11 (27)
28. Chargers 4-12 (28)
29. 49ers 5-11 (29)
30. Cowboys 4-12 (30)
31. Browns 3-13 (31)
32. Titans 3-13 (32)
