Back to a full schedule, which puts me in GREAT position to start mounting a late-season comeback. Remember early in the season when I was doing really well picking games overall but not so hot on the best bets and the lock? Well, now I'm not good at ANY of them! If Buddy the Elf's favorite is smiling, then MYM favorite is when you lose FOUR games by half a point. Wheee!
Let's get to the picks...
Week 12 Picks
Detroit (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Is it time for me to officially start believing in the Lions? I've resisted the temptation all season, but I'm thisclose to pulling the trigger. I'm going to stick with the Vikings for one more week, just because it would be a very Lions thing to do for them to finally ascend to first place and then completely poop the bed on national TV in a huge divisional game.
Pick: Vikings
Dallas (-6.5) vs. Washington
Too many points for a semi-late season, divisional rivalry game, between two teams who are both very good and playing extremely well right now. Feels like a field goal game.
Pick: Washington
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Indianapolis
Even without Andrew Luck being concussed, the Colts really aren't any good. And the Steelers in prime time after a few relatively quiet weeks from Antonio Brown and company means the fireworks will be popping on Thursday. This one might have some points...
Pick: Steelers
Buffalo (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville
That extra half point would be relatively important, if it wasn't for the fact that the Jaguars are an absolute garbage can of awfulness.
Pick: Bills
Houston (-0.5) vs. San Diego
So the first place team in the AFC South is favored by half a point at home against the last place team in the AFC West. Stupid divisions...
Pick: Chargers
New York Giants (-6.5) at Cleveland
Ok, I'm off the "Browns will lose the game but cover the spread indefinitely" (as every Giants fan reading this just collectively threw up in their mouths)...
Pick: Giants
Atlanta (-4.5) vs. Arizona
I'm not saying Carson Palmer has had the biggest downfall this side of Kanye West, but I'm not NOT saying that either.
Pick: Falcons
Tennessee (-3.5) at Chicago
The Bears are a dumpster fire, but I'm not entirely sure Tennessee should be favored on the road against anyone.
Pick: Bears
New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles
If Jared Goff doesn't get it done this week, we'll know for sure he's never gonna make it in the NFL. #ModernDayAnalyst
Pick: Saints
Miami (-7.5) vs. San Francisco
Are the Dolphins actually any good? I don't really think they are, but they keep doing things that would suggest that they are in fact good. Like playing well and winning games, those are pretty strong examples. Show me again, and I'm in.
Pick: Niners
Baltimore (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati
Gio Bernard dead, AJ Green dead, they already weren't a very good team, the Ravens are rolling, everything points to an easy Baltimore win. So why the relatively small line???
Pick: Bengals
Seattle (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
Tampa just played its best game of the season. I get that Seattle has a nice cross-country trek to make for this one on the heels of a big victory over the Eagles, but I just don't see Tampa showing up THAT perfectly two consecutive weeks.
Pick: Seahawks
New England (-7.5) at New York Jets
Weird stuff happens the second time these teams play. Would anyone be shocked if the Jets went out and won the game outright? Okay okay I know, I couldn't keep a straight face either. But still. No Gronk, Jets coming off the bye week. Stranger things???
Pick: Jets
Oakland (-3.5) vs. Carolina
I've been saying for awhile now that the Raiders aren't as good as their record indicates, but they keep showing me how stupid I am. Fortunately, I also have a terrible record for the season to add evidence to that theory so it's not just an assumption. I really am stupid. One of these weeks, they'll fail to show up in a big spot. But until it happens, it's pretty dumb to continue assuming that *THIS* will be that week.
Pick: Raiders
Denver (-3.5) vs. Kansas City
Denver is rested off the bye week, but the Chiefs are downright angry coming off an awful loss to a subpar Tampa team. Perhaps they were looking ahead a bit to this game. Well here it is, and I can't imagine them not playing their most crisp game of the season this weekend.
Pick: Chiefs
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Green Bay
I'm pretty sure the Packers just stink. I have no idea what to make of the Eagles, who can look like Super Bowl champs and the worst team in the world on alternating series. I guess this will be a field goal game in either direction. Flip a coin.
Pick: Packers
BEST BETS: Washington, Steelers, Chargers, Falcons
LOCK: San Diego Chargers
LAST WEEK
Overall: 4-10
Best Bets: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 81-80 (50%)
Best Bets: 19-25 (43%)
Lock of the Week: 4-7 (36%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Cowboys 9-1 (1)
2. Seahawks 7-2-1 (2)
3. Patriots 8-2 (3)
4. Raiders 8-2 (6)
5. Falcons 6-4 (5)
6. Giants 7-3 (8)
7. Broncos 7-3 (7)
8. Chiefs 7-3 (4)
9. Redskins 6-3-1 (9)
10. Vikings 6-4 (10)
11. Steelers 5-5 (11)
12. Texans 6-4 (12)
13. Ravens 5-5 (18)
14. Lions 6-4 (19)
15. Dolphins 6-4 (20)
16. Packers 4-6 (13)
17. Eagles 5-5 (14)
18. Cardinals 4-5-1 (15)
19. Bills 5-5 (23)
20. Saints 4-6 (17)
21. Chargers 4-6 (21)
22. Bengals 3-6-1 (16)
23. Panthers 4-6 (26)
24. Bucs 5-5 (27)
25. Colts 5-5 (25)
26. Rams 4-6 (22)
27. Titans 5-6 (24)
28. Jets 3-7 (28)
29. Bears 2-8 (29)
30. Jaguars 2-8 (30)
31. 49ers 1-9 (31)
32. Browns 0-11 (32)
