The Profit: Week 11

Let's get to the picks...!

Week 11 Picks

Carolina (-4.5) vs. New Orleans
Yeah, at this point the Panthers kind of are what they are. Last season was last season and it was a great year all the way around. But when you look back at the last five or so years of Panthers football, that looks like the outlier. This is more along the lines of the team we all expected them to be in 2015. The Saints, meanwhile, keep playing games with crazy endings. With the Thursday night setting (have I mentioned this before?), the divisional aspect, and the fact that they tend to play each other close, I'm expecting a field goal game in either direction.
Pick: Saints

Minnesota (-0.5) vs. Arizona
Pretty sure this one is gonna come down to who doesn't not want it less.
Pick: Cardinals

Dallas (-7.5) vs. Baltimore
THE BEST TEAM IN FOOTBALL DALLAS COWBOYS take on those crummy Ravens. But the Ravens have saved their best football for the better teams they've faced this season. One of those "playing to the level of their opponents" kind of stories. And now that Dak is officially the guy (I still say Romo is better, and will have a huge hand in this Super Bowl run they're about to go on), the pressure could be a little higher than it was when he was still the rookie who was playing over his head. Should be enough to keep it close at least.
Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Cleveland
How many times am I going to take the Browns and the points, only to have them completely poop the bed and let me down? Well, apparenty at least one more...
Pick: Browns

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. Buffalo
Wait, we're saying that the Bengals are only a half point better than the Bills on a neutral field? That's really what we're saying here? Because that's a ludicrous statement. Look, I expected a tumble back to the pack for Cincy this season. But the reality is, they're much like San Diego in that they are 4-5 total individual PLAYS away from being in control of this divsion. They're a much better team than the record indicates.
Pick: Bengals

Indianapolis (-3.5) vs. Tennessee
The Titans are playing some of their best football in years and they're probably a better team than the Colts on the whole. But the Colts are healthy and rested coming off a bye week, which makes this tough. I still say it's fair to call it a field goal game, so give me the points on this one.
Pick: Titans

Kansas City (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Here's the thing. The Chiefs don't necessarily blow teams out of the water. But the problem this week for Tampa is that they literally won't be able to move the ball on the KC defense. Like...at all.
Pick: Chiefs

Detroit (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville
I'm finally going to believe in you, Lions. You're rested. You're healthy. You have played much better than you have any business to be playing, considering the second-best player in the history of the franchise, the guy you lost this season, is currently showing off his best foxtrot for Len Goodman. And now you get to play the laughingstock of the league, the Jaguars. The team that I thought would be taking a big step forward this season, but has instead turned into a joke. This line seems way too low to me. Way too low. Almost scary. Almost scary to the point that I want to take the Jags, simply because it makes no sense. But I won't. You won't let me down, Lions. Don't do it.
Pick: Lions

New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Chicago
Put it this way - if the Giants don't easily win this game by more than a touchdown, somebody needs to lose their job.
Pick: Giants

Los Angeles (-0.5) vs. Miami
The rookie, the hotshot first pick, under the bright lights of the big city, pressure all around him, taking on a team that's been on a bit of a nice run itself...aaaand he's favored? I imagine this line looks weird to a lot of people, and they'll all be taking the Dolphins. Sooo...
Pick: Rams

Seattle (-6.5) vs. Philadelphia
Seattle is finally starting to really hit its stride, with a signature victory last week over the Patriots that totally avenges and cancels out New England's Super Bowl victory two years ago. There will be no debate on this - it's canceled out, and that's final. But this Philly team just has that "simply won't die" attitude about it, and I think they hang around here and maybe even squeak out a win in what is a letdown game for the Hawks. Of course, I only picked four games right last week so I'm probably talking out of my ass.
Pick: Eagles

New England (-13.5) at San Francisco
They tried, but they didn't set this line high enough to bait me into taking the Niners. Not gonna happen, sorry. Brady is still in F-U mode.
Pick: Patriots

Washington (-2.5) vs. Green Bay
Still curious why nobody wants to admit that the Packers stink, and that the Redskins are pretty good? Maybe the blowout victory that's about to happen this weekend will finally settle it for all of everyone.
Pick: Redskins

Oakland (-5.5) vs. Houston
I've said for a few weeks now that the Raiders are good, but not THIS good. And the Texans have looked bad at times, but even at their worst they probably aren't THAT bad. So now we have a line that's kind of in the middle of the pack, tough game to gauge with bye weeks and the like, and in prime time. Eh, screw it. The Raiders are in the middle of a dream season. Brock Osweiler and company aren't derailing that. Don't get cute here, just go with the obvious.
Pick: Raiders

BEST BETS: Bengals, Chiefs, Giants, Raiders
LOCK: Cincinnati Bengals

LAST WEEK

Overall: 5-9
Best Bets: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0

YEAR TO DATE

Overall: 77-70 (52%)
Best Bets: 18-22 (45%)
Lock of the Week: 4-6 (40%)

POWER RANKINGS

Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Cowboys 8-1 (2)
2. Seahawks 6-2-1 (4)
3. Patriots 7-2 (1)
4. Chiefs 7-2 (5)
5. Falcons 6-4 (3)
6. Raiders 7-2 (6)
7. Broncos 7-3 (7)
8. Giants 6-3 (11)
9. Redskins 5-3-1 (13)
10. Vikings 5-4 (8)
11. Steelers 4-5 (10)
12. Texans 6-3 (12)
13. Packers 4-5 (9)
14. Eagles 5-4 (16)
15. Cardinals 4-4-1 (15)
16. Bengals 3-5-1 (14)
17. Saints 4-5 (17)
18. Ravens 5-4 (20)
19. Lions 5-4 (19)
20. Dolphins 5-4 (26)
21. Chargers 4-6 (18)
22. Rams 4-5 (22)
23. Bills 4-5 (23)
24. Titans 5-5 (28)
25. Colts 4-5 (25)
26. Panthers 3-6 (21)
27. Bucs 4-5 (29)
28. Jets 3-7 (27)
29. Bears 2-7 (24)
30. Jaguars 2-7 (30)
31. 49ers 1-8 (31)
32. Browns 0-10 (32)