Did you ever go out to Vegas for a weekend, and put some money on a four-team parlay, and have three of those teams pull it out for you, only to have the fourth team blow up your parly because they won their game by a ton even though they stink, and that team that ruined your parlay is your favorite team, let's call them the Chargers, and you lost your bet because you bet AGAINST your favorite team, and so you didn't win your bet? But it's all okay because you got to watch the game outside by the pool at the Mirage and have smoking hot waitresses bring you Miami Vice after Miami Vice after Miami Vice? Did that ever happen to you? Because let me tell you, if my analysis makes absolutely no sense this week (I know, real stretch from the norm), it's because I watched about 11 seconds of NFL action last weekend. You're lucky I even know how many absolutely critical offensive skill players for the Chargers tore their ACL in Week 2, for goodness sake.
Let's get to the picks...!
Week 3 Picks
Houston (-2.5) at New England
The losses of two starting quarterbacks, a running back, a tight end, a banged-up receiving corps, and a flimsy offensive line would be concerns for most teams. But there's always Bill B looming in the shadows. I'm not comfortable with the Pats being dogs in their own house as long as he's around.
Pick: Patriots
Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. Denver
The Pats and Broncos, both underdogs on the same weekend? Pretty much crazy IMO.
Pick: Broncos
New York Giants (-4.5) vs. Washington
For some reason, the Redskins always give the Giants all they can handle. This week should be no different, because NFC East historic rivals that's why!
Pick: Redskins
Carolina (-6.5) vs. Minnesota
Toughest game of the week for me. Carolina showed they're still very much a dominant team a week ago, although it took them all four quarters to really illustrate it. And the Vikings, bless their hearts, now have to try and fight on without arguably their best player. I still think the overall talent level in Minnesota is a lot better than people are giving them credit for, and they beat the previously-heralded Packers last week even without any contribution from Adrian Peterson anyway. I think they'll keep this one close at least.
Pick: Vikings
Miami (-9.5) vs. Cleveland
The Dolphins don't deserve to be a nearly double digit favorite against anybody, right? They're begging us to take the Browns and the points. Which is why this game is going to be a bloodbath, and the first real sign of Miami's passing game becoming a borderline juggernaut.
Pick: Dolphins
Baltimore (-0.5) at Jacksonville
Baltimore is 2-0, while Jacksonville looks like they stink and just had their doors blown off by the dumb Chargers. So what gives here with the line? Maybe Jacksonville isn't as bad as they've looked, but I KNOW that Baltimore isn't nearly as GOOD as they've looked.
Pick: Jaguars
Arizona (-4.5) at Buffalo
The Cards found their groove a week ago, and Buffalo seemingly can't get out of its own way. I know that normally portends a bit of a shake-up, but I just don't see any way that the Cards are just a touchdown better than the Bills on a neutral field. I'm not terribly confident here, but I'd feel like a real dope if Arizona goes out and wins 35-10 and I was on the wrong side of that. And really, any good gambler will tell you that's how you're supposed to bet - from a place of fear. It's pretty much foolproof.
Pick: Cardinals
Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Oakland
Don't let last week fool you. The Titans are still bad, and the Raiders are pretty good.
Pick: Raiders
Green Bay (-7.5) vs. Detroit
Another game where they're begging us to take the Lions. Granted, Green Bay has been far from impressive thus far. And if they fail to cover here or even lose outright, it'll clearly be time to start realizing they are NOT who we thought they were. But I'm giving them one more week to right the ship and blow out a team that is nowhere near them in terms of talent level. A 10-point victory feels about right.
Pick: Packers
Tampa Bay (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles
Wow, talk about two teams I have no idea what to make of! They have both alternated with excellent and crummy in the season's first two weeks. When in doubt, do I take the points? Or is it, when in doubt I go with the team with a real NFL quarterback leading them? Or is it, when in doubt go with the city that has hotter chicks in it (this one might be a push). Or maybe when in doubt, go with the city whose eastern border area is less dangerous (dammit, another push). Better beaches? Maybe I'll just flip a coin...
Pick: Bucs
Seattle (-9.5) vs. San Francisco
The Seahawks basically can't do anything right, right now. This is another one where Vegas wants us to take the Niners and the points, since they beat the Rams and the Rams beat the Seahawks. So naturally, that means the Niners can beat the Seahawks. But...except they can't.
Pick: Seahawks
Indianapolis (-2.5) vs. San Diego
Should be a really good battle of two teams who aren't any good and can't protect their quarterbacks and have injuries all over the place on both sides of the ball. On second thought, maybe just watch a different game in the early contests. I'm going with San Diego, but only because my intense frustration with them may have caused me to underrate them a bit. They blew out Jacksonville, had the Chiefs on the ropes, and have generally looked unstoppable for six of eight quarters so far this season. The Colts are without their #2 WR, the line is in shambles, and Andrew Luck is running for his life.
Pick: Chargers
Kansas City (-3.5) vs. New York Jets
The Jets' biggest issue this season has been the performance of Darrelle Revis getting beaten deep. But who on the Chiefs is going to torch him down the field? Jeremy Maclin is more of an up-front guy at this point, and Revis is fine there. Throw in the fact that the Chiefs could be easily staring at 2-0 had it not been for a furious meltdown against San Diego two weeks ago and the Jets could be 2-0 if not for a missed XP, and I like the Jets to at least cover.
Pick: Jets
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Philadelphia
Last week may have been the high point of the Eagles' season. Reality will come crashing back on them this week in the form of one of the AFC's best teams.
Pick: Steelers
Dallas (-4.5) vs. Chicago
I figured the Cowboys would be overrated a bit based on last week's road win against the defending NFC East champ, and the Bears are underrated a bit after getting manhandled by a team nobody really expected to be all that good yet. So why isn't this line bigger? No idea, what am I some kind of mastermind or something?
Pick: Cowboys
New Orleans (-3.5) vs. Atlanta
I'm firmly in the "neither of these teams are any good" camp, but the Saints at home still has the ability to bundle points in a hurry. I just don't see any way the Atlanta offense keeps up in what should be a track meet after New Orleans only scored once last week.
Pick: Saints
BEST BETS: Patriots, Jaguars, Cardinals, Raiders (had Jets but changed it last minute)
LOCK: New England Patriots
LAST WEEK
Overall: 10-6 (62%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 22-10 (68%)
Best Bets: 4-4 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 1-1 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Patriots 2-0 (1)
2. Broncos 2-0 (2)
3. Steelers 2-0 (5)
4. Panthers 1-1 (6)
5. Cardinals 1-1 (7)
6. Vikings 2-0 (13)
7. Texans 2-0 (12)
8. Giants 2-0 (10)
9. Packers 1-1 (3)
10. Chiefs 1-1 (8)
11. Bengals 1-1 (11)
12. Cowboys 1-1 (15)
13. Jets 1-1 (16)
14. Eagles 2-0 (19)
15. Ravens 2-0 (20)
16. Seahawks 1-1 (4)
17. Falcons 1-1 (27)
18. Raiders 1-1 (9)
19. Chargers 1-1 (29)
20. Titans 1-1 (30)
21. Bucs 1-1 (14)
22. Lions 1-1 (18)
23. Rams 1-1 (32)
24. Jaguars 0-2 (17)
25. Bills 0-2 (21)
26. Redskins 0-2 (22)
27. Saints 0-2 (23)
28. Dolphins 0-2 (24)
29. Colts 0-2 (25)
30. 49ers 1-1 (31)
31. Bears 0-2 (28)
32. Browns 0-2 (26)
