NBA GPP Contrarian Picks – Tuesday 11/8/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Damian Lillard ($9,100 DK, $9,800 FD)
Kris Dunn ($5,400 DK / $4,800 FD)
Tim Frazier ($6,600 DK / $5,400 FD)
Contrarian:
Darren Collison ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD)
It is difficult to project what Collison’s ownership will be on his first game back from suspension, but the Tim Frazier effect combined with fantasy players being unsure of his role tonight should scare enough people off him to allow his ownership to sink.Ty Lawson was serviceable in Collison’s absence in a fantasy sense, but was not effective when it came to the real game, so Collison should be slotted right back into the starting position with a healthy dosage of minutes. Last season was up, and down for Collison because he sat behind Rajon Rondo in the King’s rotation, but Collison should have no threat to his position with Rondo out of town. Last year, when Rondo was off the court, Collison was given over 22% usage to go along with 53% shooting from 2-point range, and 42% shooting from beyond the arc, so even if his historical ceiling is not quite as high as you might like to see for an over $6,000 player, the stats, and the usage will be there tonight against a Pelicans team on a back-to-back that has been giving up major fantasy production to opposing point guards.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
CJ McCollum ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD)
Devin Booker ($6,600 DK / $6,700 FD)
Sean Kilpatrick ($5,400 DK / $4,900 FD)
Contrarian:
Jordan Clarkson ($4,700 DK / $5,000 FD)
Clarkson has had quite a lackluster start to the year after showing flashes of large upside last season. He has been moved to the bench to try to spark secondary scoring, but his shooting percentages have been in somewhat of a slump at only 45.7%/23.8% from 2-point, and 3-point range respectively. His peripheral stats have been down as well considering he is only average 2.7 assists, and 1.7 rebounds per game. However, Clarkson is still averaging over 27 minutes per night even though he is running with the bench unit, and he has a robust 26% usage to go along with an average of 13 shot attempts per game so far on the season. His price has dropped significantly to a point where he realistically has the potential for the most upside on the entire slate being that 8-9x value is a genuine ceiling. He gets to face a Dallas team tonight that has not shown much defensive prowess, and even though the Lakers will be forced into a slower paced game, Clarkson will still have plenty of opportunity to hit the 35-45 fantasy point ceiling players became familiar with last year.
Small Forward
Chalk:
LeBron James ($9,900 DK / $9,900 FD)
TJ Warren ($6,900 DK / $6,400 FD)
Harrison Barnes ($6,700 DK / $5,700 FD)
Contrarian:
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,400 DK / $4,200 FD)
It was surprising to see Bogdanovic’s teammate Sean Kilpatrick garner over 20% ownership their last game, but that trend is likely to continue with Kilpatrick’s 6x value outing leaving Bogdanovic as an afterthought. Bogdanovic is not normally a very attractive option, but he does have big upside potential when his shot is falling because he has a 23% usage rate with Jeremy Lin, and Greivis Vazquez off the court along with averaging over 10 shots per game. As a bonus, Bogdanovic makes it to the free throw line multiple times per game, and is going against the Timberwolves who are the 6th worst in the league at allowing opposing players to get to the free throw line. Bogdanovic is a boom, or bust option, and could realistically give you fantasy points in the low teens, but his ceiling is well over 30 fantasy points while Lin, and Vazquez are sidelined making him a great GPP option with 8x upside at his current price.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Anthony Davis ($11,000 DK / $10,800 FD)
Demarcus Cousins on DraftKings ($10,400 DK)
LeBron James on DraftKings ($9,900 DK)
Paul Millsap ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD)
Contrarian:
Zach Randolph ($5,500 DK / $5,400 FD)
Randolph’s matchup against Denver is enough to make him a great choice considering the Nuggets cascade fantasy production to opposing front courts, but this game is projected to stay close having only a miniscule 2.5 point spread in favor of Memphis even though it is projected to be the lowest overall scoring of the night, so Randolph should receive his full complement of minutes. Randolph comes off the bench, and his minutes are a little suspect, but he still has an immense 33% usage rate which rises all the way up to 37% when Conley is off the floor, and he has been averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute this season. Conley is questionable for tonight’s game while dealing with a hamstring injury, so expect Randolph to have complete control of the second unit. If the minutes are there, which they should be, he should have no trouble surpassing that 1.11 fp/min benchmark, and does have the potential for 35+ fantasy points even with minutes in the 25-28 range.
Center
Chalk:
Anthony Davis on DraftKings ($11,000 DK)
Demarcus Cousins ($10,400 DK / $9,500 FD)
Dwight Howard ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD)
Contrarian:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD)
Karl-Anthony Towns is usually quite highly owned, but he might go unnoticed tonight considering DeMarcus Cousins is well underpriced on both sites for his matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, and Dwight Howard’s price has yet to catch up with his recent fantasy production outbursts. Towns will be the 3rd highest owned Center on the slate, but that should still leave him under 20% ownership with upside surpassing Howard, and rivaling Cousins. Towns gets to play a paced up game against a banged up Brooklyn Nets team that is projected to have a modest 206 total with a small 4-point spread favoring Minnesota. The Timberwolves run their offense by giving Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine almost equal usage meaning that having a few more shots to go around in a fast paced matchup should benefit Towns’ scoring, but the Brooklyn Nets are also the 4th worst team in the league at allowing opponents to rebound the ball, so he should also be able to gain a significant bump in rebounding as well. Brooklyn will also be forced to run a large part of their offense through Brook Lopez on the inside because Jeremy Lin, and Greivis Vazquez are both out with injuries, so Towns will have more opportunities to generate blocks as well. He should be able to contribute across the board in a Brooklyn matchup where he has historically produced 1.4 fantasy points per minute.
