NBA GPP Contrarian Picks - Tuesday 11/01/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Tim Frazier - $5,900 DraftKings / $5,500 FanDuel
Kris Dunn - $4,300 DraftKings / $4,000 FanDuel
Sergio Rodriguez $4,700 DraftKings/$5,100 DraftKings
Contrarian:
D’Angelo Russell - $6,700 DraftKings / $6,100 FanDuel
Russell is a great GPP play tonight as most of the ownership is either going to go down to the low end or people are going to spend up on Steph Curry or Damian Lillard. With Russell, you get a player who is volatile, but in a great matchup and a high usage rate of 29.0. He makes for a great play on both sites, as he can fill up the stat categories in points, rebounds and assists. The Pacers so far this year have struggled against point guards, allowing 25 points to Deron Williams, and 20 points 6 rebounds 5 assists to Giannis Antetekounmpo.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
C.J. McCollum - $7,200 DraftKings / $7,300 FanDuel
Klay Thompson - $6,500 DraftKings / $5,800 FanDuel
Evan Fournier - $6,800 DraftKings / $6,100 FanDuel
Contrarian:
Zach LaVine - $5,700 DraftKings / $5,900 FanDuel
Zach LaVine is one of the most athletic players in the NBA as we saw in the dunk contest the last two seasons. The former first round pick had previously been unable to translate that athleticism to statistical production, but the 21 year old is starting to show signs of consistency and upside. He is currently averaging 20 points per game and is going up against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is not the same defensive prowess that we have seen in previous years. In their first meeting this season LaVine had 19 points 5 rebounds and 3 assists, and will likely be underowned due to the other shooting guard options on this slate. If he can improve on those prior numbers just a little bit he will make for a very good GPP option as he needs about 30-35 points to pay off his salary.
Small Forward
Chalk:
Kevin Durant - $10,500 DraftKings / $9,800 FanDuel
Paul George - $8,300 Draftkings / $9,200 FanDuel
Andrew Wiggins - $6,400 DraftKings / $6,400 FanDuel
Contrarian:
Kawhi Leonard - $8,300 DraftKings / $8,600 FanDuel
No one is going to own Kawhi Leonard tonight, as he is in one of the most difficult matchups of the year as the two best defensive teams square off in what should be a low scoring contest. We have seen early this year that the start athletic wings do not struggle against Utah as much as the low inside post-men do and Kawhi Leonard is quickly turning into a fantasy superstar in front of our eyes. He is averaging 43.8 FanDuel points so far this season including two games where he went over 50 points. For a player who is likely going to be less than 5% owned to have 50 point upside is a perfect contrarian GPP play for this slate.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Anthony Davis - $11,000 DraftKings / $10,800 FanDuel
Gorgui Dieng- $6,200 DraftKings/ $5,900 FanDuel
Thaddeus Young- $6,100 DraftKings/ $5,700 FanDuel
Contrarian:
Serge Ibaka- $5,500 DraftKings / $5,600 FanDuel
Serge Ibaka due to recent form will likely not be as highly owned as he otherwise should be. A lot of people were burned by his performance in his second game of the season going up against Detroit where he was the one of the highest owned players of the day. He managed to have a 4 point, 3 rebound performance as the team was blown out from the beginning of the game and only played 19 minutes. The good news is that outside of that performance he has been relatively good averaging 16.5 points 7 rebounds per game. At $5,500 he take on a Philadelphia team that appear to be better than last year’s version largely led by Joel Embiid, but they have really struggled against the Power Forward position. In the season opener Enes Kanter had 17 points 12 rebounds in a monster performance, and Paul Millsap led the Hawks in points in their previous outing with 17 in a blowout victory. This is a great matchup for Ibaka and he should be able to use his perimeter shooting to his advantage.
Center
Chalk:
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 DraftKings/ $8,600 FanDuel
Andre Drummond - $8,200 DraftKings / $8,400 FanDuel
Mason Plumlee - $4,900 DraftKings / $4,600 FanDuel
Contrarian:
DeMarcus Cousins - $10,400 DraftKings / $9,900 FanDuel
Another case of recency bias coming into play as DeMarcus Cousins burned a lot of people last night where he only had 27 total fantasy points. That was a very difficult matchup that we warned our readers to be cautious with him as he has struggled against Dwight Howard in the past. This is another tough matchup on the surface for Cousins as he takes on Hassan Whiteside, but Miami allowed the 12th most fantasy points to Centers last season and if the Kings go with a big lineup with Koufos in the lineup, Cousins will be defended by Luke Babbitt. There is no chance that Luke Babbitt will be able to guard Cousins in this one as Cousins is more athletic, has two inches and 45 pounds on the smaller Babbitt. This is a case where a lot of the ownership at the top end is going to go to Anthony Davis and for good reason as he is on an absolute tear so far this season, so you may not be able to afford Cousins, but if you can find a way to fit him into your lineup, he makes for a great GPP sneaky play as his ownership will be lower than it should be.
