Magic at Pacers
Vegas Line: IND -7
Total- 206.5
Orlando Magic
Projected Lineup
PG- Elfrid Payton
SG- Evan Fournier
SF- Jeff Green
PF- Serge Ibaka
C- Nikola Vucevic
The Magic are coming off a back to back in an emotional game for Serge Ibaka as he returned back to the team that traded him in Oklahoma City. Ibaka had a monster night, as he had 31 points, 9 rebounds and 4 blocks in 37 minutes played. The Magic see a major lift in pace in this game as the Pacers are the fourth fastest team while the Magic are the 28th fastest team so far this season. Outside of pace, the matchup is relatively neutral across the board as there is not one glaring weakness for the Pacers but there is not one major defensive strength either. Looking at this matchup, Payton, Fournier, and Ibaka all come into this game with good form, but the problem with Ibaka is that is he really going to put together back to back performances like he did last night? We have seen players/teams with let downs after big wins or emotional wins where they played more than their allotted minutes.
Fournier/Payton are the two intriguing players here as Fournier as both are under 6k and Payton is coming off a 52 fantasy point game while Fournier has gone over 30 fantasy points in each of his last two games.
Top Plays – Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier
Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka
Indiana Pacers
Projected Lineup
PG- Jeff Teague
SG- Monta Ellis
SF- Paul George
PF- Thaddeus Young
C- Myles Turner
The Pacers see a big pace decrease as they are going up against the third slowest team in the NBA this season. The three positions the Magic have really struggled so far against are the point guard, small forward and center position which sets up really well for the Pacers as those are their three best positions.
Paul George is still questionable for this game so a lot can change if he were to play or if he were to miss. If he does play, he is a GPP play only, as playing players who are coming back from injury always involves a little bit of risk unless we know for sure what his minutes are going to be. If he does miss, C.J. Miles sees a major increase and becomes a very nice play on FanDuel only as his price on DraftKings is prohibitive.
Jeff Teague has been struggling a little bit as of late, but this is an opportunity going up against Elfrid Payton to get right in a positive matchup. The price is a little bit increased as it increased $400 after a 50 point fantasy night against Philadelphia on November 9th. This is a position where he is a fine cash game play particularly if Paul George misses this game, but he is not a great GPP play as his upside just is not there.
Myles Turner’s price refuses to come down on either site as he had a 60 point fantasy night on opening night and his price has not come back down to reality yet. He is a good player, but still a very raw player at just 20 years old who has over 35 fantasy points just once since opening night. At almost $7k, he needs 35 to pay off his price tag which while the matchup is favorable and one that he can exploit, can not be trusted in cash games tonight. In a GPP he has that upside that he has shown, but do not go too heavy with him.
Top Plays – C.J. Miles (DK),
Secondary Plays – Paul George, Jeff Teague, Myles Turner (GPP)
Mavericks at Knicks
Vegas Line: NY -3.5
Total- 204
Dallas Mavericks
Projected Lineup
PG- J.J. Barea
SG- Wesley Matthews
SF- Harrison Barnes
PF- Dirk Nowitzki
C- Andrew Bogut
Deron Williams is unlikely to play, and if he does not play, J.J. Barea becomes a top option at the point guard position. Barea has been great over his last three games going for over 30 points in each of those contests. Keep an eye on the injury news here as Dirk Nowitzki is still questionable for this game and if he is out, Harrison Barnes continues to be a great play as he has went for 40+ fantasy points in each of his last three contests and the offense will be run through Barea and Barnes. Both Barea and Barnes are too cheap on FanDuel in this slate while their price has reacted more quickly on DraftKings making them secondary options.
Top Plays – J.J. Barea (FD), Harrison Barnes (FD)
Secondary Plays – Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes (DK), J.J. Barea (DK
New York Knicks
Projected Lineup
PG- Derrick Rose
SG- Courtney Lee
SF- Carmelo Anthony
PF- Kristaps Porzingis
C- Joakim Noah
When will Carmelo Anthony’s price increase? At under $8k on both sites, this is a player who has gone for 38.75+ points in four of his last five games, and the game that he did not he was ejected after just 12 minutes played where he had 16 fantasy points. He has taken his game to another level particularly in the rebounding department as he has 6+ rebounds in six of his eight games so far this season. Historically he has had issues where he has been up and down and not consistent so DFS players have shied away from him, but this season he is almost the exact opposite where he is extremely consistent and has not had one of those monster 35+ point performances yet. Unfortunately the matchup is a tough one for Carmelo as he is going up against Harrison Barnes. He is still in cash game play, but his GPP upside is relatively limited due to his low ceiling already heading into this game combined with the tough matchup.
Kristaps Porzingis is almost the exact opposite of Carmelo, as he has been extremely inconsistent to start this season. After three straight 35+ fantasy point performances, he averaged just 27 in the next two games. This is a narrative game for Porzingis as he takes on fellow European Dirk Nowitzki who in their one meeting scored 28 points against the aging veteran. He should have a tremendous athletic advantage on Nowitzki which makes him an intriguing option at under $7k salary.
Top Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis
Secondary Plays – Courtney Lee, Derrick Rose
Thunder at Pistons
Vegas Line: DET -3
Total- 202
Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Westbrook
SG- Victor Oladipo
SF- Andre Roberson
PF- Domantas Sabonis
C- Steven Adams
The Thunder have really struggled over their last three games and look to go on the road after a tough loss to Orlando last night. The Thunder are desperate for a win in the competitive Western Conference and face a team that is without their best player in Andre Drummond. Russell Westbrook is coming off a game where he had 41 points, 12 rebounds and 16 assists. At just $10.8K on DraftKings, Westbrook is one of the top plays of the night as even in a tough matchup if you can get Westbrook under $11k on either site you have to think long and hard about doing it.
Steven Adams is intriguing play in the low $5k price point as without Drummond is Aron Baynes going to be able to stop Adams? This seems unlikely, and Adams has shown upside as he has gone for 30+ in three of his last five games which would give him a decent chance at reaching 6x tonight.
Top Plays – Steven Adams, Russell Westbrook (DK)
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (FD)
Detroit Pistons
Projected Lineup
PG- Ish Smith
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF- Marcus Morris
PF- Tobias Harris
C- Aron Baynes
Andre Drummond is expected to miss this game due to injury, which opens up a terrific option at the center position. Aron Baynes who is minimum salary is expected to get the start, and becomes a terrific play in this slate. Baynes is a player who we have seen turn into a different player when he gets the starting nod as he averaged 0.9 FanDuel points per minute last season which would be tremendous upside at minimum salary. It is a tough matchup for Baynes as the Thunder have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing centers, but at minimum salary on a slate where there are not elite options at center, Baynes has to be considered.
Jon Leuer should also see an increase in usage in this game with Drummond out. Leuer is a guy who has gone for over 20 FanDuel points in five of his last six games all while averaging 25 minutes. He is expected to see a few extra minutes in this one with Drummond out and at less than 5k on both sites should have an easy time reaching value in this one. The matchup is a relatively neutral one, but Leuer sees most of his action against the second team and Enes Kanter is not a strong defensive player.
Top Plays – Aron Baynes, Jon Leuer
Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Tobias Harris
Celtics at Pelicans
Vegas Line: BOS -4.5
Total- 211.5
Boston Celtics
Projected Lineup
PG- Isaiah Thomas
SG- Avery Bradley
SF- Marcus Smart
PF- Amir Johnson
C- Al Horford
This is expected to be one of the highest paced games and one of the highest scoring games of the slate. Boston this season is eighth in points scored this season and love to run up and down the floor with their opponent. Avery Bradley’s price has risen to a point where there is not much opportunity for a profit as he has been off to such a great start with rebounding and assist to complement his scoring ability. Marcus Smart continues to be an excellent play and will be a popular one as his price is still well below his minutes and he has been a popular play over the last few slates.
Al Horford is questionable to return for this game and is not really an option due to missing extended period of time. However it is still a situation you need to monitor and check our breaking news as if he misses, Kelly Olynyk becomes a top play on this slate.
Top Plays – Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk (if Al Horford misses)
Secondary Plays – Kelly Olynyk (if Al Horford starts), Isaiah Thomas
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected Lineup
PG- Tim Frazier
SG- E’Twaun Moore
SF- Dante Cunningham
PF- Anthony Davis
C- Omer Asik
This is a great position for the Pelicans to be in as they are at home against one of the worst defenses in the league as the Celtics are allowing 108.3 points per game. Al Horford is likely to return which helps the Celtics defense, but in reality how much is Horford going to play coming back from injury. Boston is in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to the shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center positions, but Isaiah Thomas has been a good defensive player so far this season holding opponents to the 8th fewest fantasy points so far this season.
In a game that is expected to be one of the highest scoring of the night, Anthony Davis does have to be considered for this game. He is dealing with a sore back but is expected to play in this one. The issue is that Davis just has not been the player that we saw in the first two games this season where he dominated the games and whether it is he is frustrated at the team’s record, or he is not fully healthy, he is just averaging 46.6 FanDuel points over his last six contests and no game over 55 points. At a price over 11k, it is hard to justify starting him in cash games when there are more consistent options in just as good spots such as Westbrook or Harden.
Top Plays –
Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis, Tim Frazier
76ers at Houston
Vegas Line: Hou -11.5
Total- 214
Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Lineup
PG- Sergio Rodriguez
SG- Gerald Henderson
SF- Robert Covington
PF- Dario Saric
C- Joel Embiid
From a matchup standpoint, the Rockets are defending the guard positions at an above league average rate, while they are really struggling against Small forwards (3rd worst in the NBA), and are slightly below league average against the power forward and center. So what does this mean in a game that is potentially going to be a blowout?
Robert Covington is starting to show signs of a breakout compared to the early horrendous start that he had. His price on FanDuel is under $5k, which for a player who is in a terrific matchup, and has gone for 21.6 FanDuel points or more in each of his last five games is in a terrific spot to reach 5-6x in this one. If you have been playing DFS long enough you know what Covington’s upside is and how he has a 50+ point game 45-50+ fantasy point game a few times per season. If this game stays close, Covington has that upside and if it doesn’t stay close at just $4,800 is a cheap enough play that he should still reach value.
Joel Embiid is the top option on FanDuel and still a good option on DraftKings at the center position tonight as even though he is in just a slightly better than average matchup, his price just does not increase to a point where you should think about another player. He has gone for over 30+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games and his price has only increased from $4,800 to $5,400. At $6,300 on DraftKings, he is a little bit limited in GPP’s largely because of the lack of minutes that he plays.
Top Plays – Robert Covington (FD), Joel Embiid (FD), Joel Embiid (DK cash)
Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (DK), Joel Embiid (DK GPP)
Houston Rockets
Projected Lineup
PG- James Harden
SG- Corey Brewer
SF- Trevor Ariza
PF- Ryan Anderson
C- Clint Capela
James Harden is on another level right now and is going up against a very favorable matchup in the 76ers who have allowed the 7th most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season. Harden has gone for over 50 FanDuel points in each of his last six contests, and over 60 DraftKings points in that same timeframe. The biggest difference is that his turnovers have been severe which the pricing difference combined with the bonus for the double-double/triple double make it even more extreme. This game may turn into a blow out, but even if it does, you should not avoid starting Harden as he will be a major factor why this turns into a blowout and is one of the top plays on this slate.
Clint Capela continues to be a roller coaster this season, as he is averaging a point per minute on FanDuel, but his minutes have fluctuated pretty drastically. This is a favorable matchup going up against the third worst team in the NBA against opposing centers. He is a viable punt play on a slate which has very limited options at center.
Top Plays: James Harden, Clint Capela
Secondary Play: Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon (GPP)
Heat at Spurs
Vegas Line: SA -12
Total- 190.5
Miami Heat
Projected Lineup
PG- Josh Richardson
SG- Dion Waiters
SF- Justise Winslow
PF- Luke Babbitt
C- Hassan Whiteside
The Heat are the lowest projected team on this slate at just 89.75 points as they go up against the second slowest team in the NBA and one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs. The Heat last year lost by an average of 21 points to the Spurs, but were more competitive in their one meeting this season as they lost by 7 points at home led by Hassan Whiteside’s 27 point 15 rebound performance. While it is hard to expect Whiteside to do this again on the road, he does have an athletic mismatch against Pau Gasol that he should be able to take advantage of rather easily. For a 7 game slate, this slate really lacks the great center options, and those that it does have are in tough matchups.
Justise Winslow remains underpriced but he has really struggled over his last few games after a hot start. He draws a tough matchup against Kawhi Leonard, but he did succeed earlier this season with 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and a block for a total of 32.25 FanDuel points. At just $5k salary, he is at least intriguing and someone who should be looked at.
Josh Richardson is expected to start with Goran Dragic out and is under-priced in this matchup. He is one of the top punt plays on the slate.
Top Plays – Josh Richardson
Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow
San Antonio Spurs
Projected Lineup
PG- Tony Parker
SG- Danny Green
SF- Kawhi Leonard
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge
C- Pau Gasol
The Spurs are big favorites in this game in which should be a low paced contest. This is a situation that you should likely just avoid altogether, as if the team gets up big Popovich will pull his starters early. Kawhi Leonard as a GPP play is an option although should not be in your core GPP lineups. If this game stays close and Vegas is wrong with it being low scoring Leonard is in a good spot as he fills up so many categories.
Top Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard (GPP)
Grizzlies at Jazz
Vegas Line: Utah -6
Total- 187
Memphis
Projected Lineup
PG- Mike Conley
SG- James Ennis
SF- Chandler Parsons
PF- JaMychal Green
C- Marc Gasol
This is a game where you just want to avoid the Grizzlies and move on for a 7 game slate. Going with a team that is on the road and is projected to just score 90 points against the slowest paced team in the NBA is not a viable DFS strategy. In a GPP, Chandler Parsons is intriguing, as the Jazz have struggled defensively against the small forward position compared to other positions as they are league average against the position while top 5 against most other positions. The problem is that Parsons is still on a minutes restriction, but his price is depleted enough especially on DraftKings that in a GPP he could exceed value.
Top Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Chandler Parsons (DK GPP)
Utah Jazz
Projected Lineup
PG- George HIll
SG- Rodney Hood
SF- Gordon Hayward
PF- Derrick Favors
C- Rudy Gobert
Memphis is another really strong defensive team, so we are not thrilled about considering any players from this game, but Memphis has really struggled against the point guard position which is surprising as Mike Conley traditionally is a very good defensive player. George Hill is still questionable for this game, but if he plays keep an eye on the news and the projections to determine what minutes he will play. If he sees full minutes, he is an intriguing player, not someone that we want a ton of exposure to as this game could be 85-80, but he is a player who in a GPP is not the worst play in the world as he is averaging 32.8 FanDuel points per game. If he does not play, it is a mix between Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack and neither are particularly enticing.
Top Plays – None
Secondary Plays – George Hill
Nets at Clippers
Vegas Line: LAC -14.5
Total- 214.5
Brooklyn Nets
Projected Lineup
PG- Sean Kilpatrick
SG- Bojan Bogdanovic
SF- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
PF- Trevor Booker
C- Brook Lopez
Brooklyn is in a tough position here as they are huge underdogs, and they are going up against one of the better defensive teams in the NBA so far this season. Trevor Booker is intriguing in this one largely because his price has not increased based on his recent production. It is a very difficult matchup as the Clippers are the best against the power forward position, but this is a player who has Myles Turner upside as we have seen in the last four games where he has gone for 34+ fantasy point in three of those contests. At his depressed salary, all he truly needs is 27 points to reach value.
We are sad that the auto-start Sean Kilpatrick train has come to the end of the line. He still should be considered, but Isaiah Whitehead returns from his concussion and it appears that he will start in this contest. This pushed Kilpatrick back to the bench which at Kilpatricks price depresses his value. He is a fine GPP play, but the Clippers are the best against shooting guards and in the top half against point guards. If you start Kilpatrick you essentially are hoping this game turns into a blowout and he gets significant minutes against the bench.
Top Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Trevor Booker, Sean Kilpatrick
Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Lineup
PG- Chris Paul
SG- J.J. Redick
SF- Luc Mbah a Moute
PF- Blake Griffin
C- Deandre Jordan
We have seen this before where the Clippers are projected to win big at home, and they have absolutely dominated at home this season. Going up against a Brooklyn team that is one of the worst in the league this should be a great matchup for all participants in this game. However, the threat of the blowout is real, which limits the upside of these players as they will likely see a reduction in minutes. The Nets have really struggled against all positions except for the center position, which bodes well for Paul and Griffin. They are still in play even if this game turns into a blowout, as we have seen them put up monster numbers in the 25-30 minutes, but do not have that GPP upside if they do not see the 30-35 minutes. J.J. Redick is an intriguing play, as he is averaging 15.6 points over his last five games and should be in a good spot in this game. He is a secondary punt play, as he does not do much else but score.
Top Plays: Blake Griffin (Cash), Chris Paul (Cash)
Secondary Play: J.J. Redick
