Lakers at Timberwolves
Vegas Line: Min -4
Total- 215.5
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Projected Lineup
PG- D’Angelo Russell
SG- Nick Young
SF- Luol Deng
PF- Julius Randle
C- Timofey Mozgov
For cash contests, this is probably the slate’s top game to target. The 216-point total is sexy, and the spread (Minnesota -4.5) is tight enough to expect 4 competitive quarters. The Lakers are in the slightly less attractive position, as they’ll pace down noticeably from their normal levels, but still carry plenty of appeal. Both teams played last night, and the Timberwolves allowed 119 points to the sluggish-paced Clippers. They were eviscerated in the paint, where both Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan double-doubled. Randle’s salary has come down a bit from its heights, despite producing over a fantasy point per minute over the last two weeks, so he’s squarely in play. He projects to clear cash value if he can draw at least 25-27 minutes, a mark he’s hit in 9 of the Lakers’ 10 games. But there’s a lot more GPP value in Larry Nance Jr., who has been eased back into action after last week’s concussion but remained quite efficient. Last night he posted 6 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals across just 22 minutes of play – a low total that could hint at more time in tonight’s follow-up. Lou Williams’ salary just isn’t boosting across DFS despite topping universal 5x value in six straight. Williams sees as many minutes as anyone else in the Lakers’ PG/SG/SF logjam, and he’s far more consistent (and contributes in more categories) than his competition. He’ll be cheap and chalky and should find a way into most cash and tournament lineups. The same could be said to a lesser extent of Deng, if and only if Brandon Ingram sits out.
Top Plays – Lou Williams, Julius Randle
Secondary Plays – Larry Nance Jr. (GPP-only), Luol Deng (if Ingram sits)
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Projected Lineup
PG- Ricky Rubio
SG- Zach LaVine
SF- Andrew Wiggins
PF- Gorgui Dieng
C- Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back, but it’s not a huge concern. TheyTowns is a machine; his slow start has faded from memory as he’s churned out 20+ points in 5 straight games and double-doubled in 3 of them. He chimes in plenty of blocks and steals, too, and takes on a Lakers frontcourt that poses no real obstacle to elite bigs. He’s an extremely safe cash play on a slate that lacks strong center options. Wiggins has been scoring in lights-out fashion, but he remains a GPP-preferred play. The strong minutes and opportunity are there, but he’s always an iffy cash choice due to his lack of peripheral stats: just four steals all year and three assists or fewer in six of eight games. Rubio made a nice return last night, with seven points, six rebounds, and six assists across just 24 minutes. There’s some GPP appeal, but his scoring will be shaky all year with so many real playmakers around him, and there’s no guarantee he’ll resume his full role anytime soon. LaVine carries more appeal, but like Wiggins remains a scoring-only contributor and likely won’t see the 40 minutes he was given last night.
Top Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (GPP-preferred), Zach LaVine (GPP-preferred)
Magic At Thunder
Vegas Line: OKC -9.5
Total- 202.5
ORLANDO MAGIC
Projected Lineup
PG- Elfrid Payton
SG- Evan Fournier
SF- Tobias Harris
PF- Serge Ibaka
C- Nikola Vucevic
The Magic bring some theoretical appeal – they’ll pace up majorly in this matchup, and they’re one of the few teams on this slate that didn’t play last night. Still, yuck. They “boast” the NBA’s second-worst scoring margin and offensive efficiency, and to make matters worse, their lineup and minutes distribution are volatile. As a result, none of them are predictably strong cash plays. Vucevic is probably the closest thing to it; he’s rebounding consistently and plays a position the Thunder have struggled with of late. But his minutes and effectiveness have fluctuated, so he’s little more than a GPP option with only moderate upside. The strongest GPP play, however, resides on #NarrativeStreet, where Ibaka will take on his former team. Ibaka has seen a bump in usage in moving to Orlando, but not in efficiency or dynamism – he hasn’t topped 11 points in 10 days, and he hasn’t produced enough rebounds or blocks to make up for it. Still, there’s a solid chance he gives his best effort of the year today, so he’ll be in my GPP portfolio. Fournier has cooled off after a strong start and will face ex-Magic swingman Victor Oladipo, a fine defender who’s really only been worked over by one SG all season (DeMar DeRozan). Gordon is a stat-stuffer, but he’s being yo-yo’d in and out of the lineup and lacks great upside. Payton should carry a strong outlook in a plus matchup, but he simply can’t shoot the ball (40.6% on the season and just 18.2% from three) and his minutes have slipped lately in a battle with D.J. Augustin.
Top Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka (GPP-only), Nikola Vucevic (GPP-only)
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Wilson
SG- Victor Oladipo
SF- Andre Roberson
PF- Domantas Sabonis
C- Steven Adams
There are always strategic reasons to roster Westbrook: he’s a nightly threat to post a video game-quality triple-double, and he’ll usually be a chalky play that allows you to sink or swim along with your competitors. I’ll never actively try to talk you out of playing him, and tonight he makes for a solid option on a small slate. But he’s not a must-play: his salary is high, of course, and the Thunder will pace down noticeably against the Magic. Not to mention, Elfrid Payton’s defense is generally strong, so it’s hard to envision one of Westbook’s true signature nights. Play him with confidence, but don’t feel cornered. This isn’t an essential night to have him on board. Like Serge Ibaka, Oladipo will face his former team, and he’s been enjoying some wild minute totals (35.7 over the last 3 games). But he’s been extremely streaky, shooting 41% or worse in 6 of 9 games and struggling for peripheral stats. With just 3.8 rebounds and 0.9 blocks-plus-steals per game, his upside is majorly capped, even in a revenge matchup. The strongest Thunder GPP play is probably Adams, as nearly every center to face the inside-out Magic thus far have reached value. Kanter is always GPP-attractive, but his likelihood for going off tonight looks slim. He’s little more than a matchup play who can dominate smaller, offensive-based frontcourts but tends to vanish against big lines like Orlando’s. I’d probably call Sabonis a stronger tournament stab; he’s been an effective three-point specialist, if nothing else. Still, overall, I’m not buying into this game beyond modest exposure to Westbrook. There’s just far too much potential for a low-paced blowout.
Top Plays – Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams (GPP-preferred), Victor Oladipo (GPP-only)
Suns at Warriors
Vegas Line: GS -16.5
Total- 228
PHOENIX SUNS
Projected Lineup
PG- Eric Bledsoe
SG- Devin Booker
SF- T.J. Warren
PF- Jared Dudley
C- Tyson Chandler
The Suns face a high-paced matchup against a hit-or-miss defense, but let’s pump the brakes. They’re on the road and just played last night, and Vegas’ 16.5-point spread hints at a blowout that could see starters hit the bench for the 4th quarter. It’s important to note that the Suns have played two back-to-backs thus far and have scored below their season average in the second leg of both. That includes an early-season matchup with the Clippers that produced just 98 points on 42% shooting. This one should provide more opportunity, as Golden State boasts a high pace, but we should expect struggles with efficiency. It doesn’t help that the Suns’ stars are priced around their ceilings, and all told, there just doesn’t look to be much value here. Warren has cooled noticeably after a dynamite start to the season; he’s a nightly GPP play, but it’s hard to count on him at this price point. Bledsoe has also been wildly hit-or-miss, considering his salary. He’s routinely priced among the second tier of point guards, though that’s served as his game-to-game ceiling, so there’s no value to be found. He’s worth some GPP attention, especially after playing just 30 minutes last night, but it’s hard to break the bank for him in this back-to-back. Brandon Knight is a sneaky play for deep GPPs; he’s posted roughly a fantasy point per minute over the last three games and could see a lot of run if this game gets out of hand. Still, any true cash appeal the Suns carry tonight will be in the frontcourt, where the Warriors can be beaten badly on the boards. Pay close attention to Tyson Chandler’s status (personal); if he plays, he’ll make for an elite value option. Chandler posted 8 points and 18 rebounds in an earlier match between the two teams, and altogether he’s notched double-digit boards in 6 of his 7 games. If Chandler can’t go, Len is a dynamic play in either cash or GPP formats. In 2 games without Chandler, Len has played 37 and 29 minutes and hit universal 5x value both times. Both were double-doubles, and both featured at least two blocks-plus-steals. If Chandler misses, Chriss will resume his spot in the lineup, and he’s insanely cheap for a starter. But in three starts, he’s only posted one fantasy-useful game. There are safer sources of salary relief out there, even in this game. I prefer Jared Dudley of the two.
Top Plays – Starting center
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (GPP-preferred), Jared Dudley (GPP-preferred), T.J. Warren (GPP-only)
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Projected Lineup
PG- Steph Curry
SG- Klay Thompson
SF- Kevin Durant
PF- Draymond Green
C- Zaza Pachulia
With their combination of pace and shoddy defense, no NBA team has allowed more points per game than the Suns. Rested and winners of three straight games, the Warriors look poised to take advantage. They’re wildly high favorites tonight, but blowouts haven’t really affected the minutes or usage of their stars. Their big 4 has individually played 29+ minutes in every game thus far, and we’ve seen 3-4 of them reach value simultaneously – even in blowouts. Curry is probably the strongest cash bet as the team’s usage leader. His assists have been down this year, but they’ve been inversely proportional to his scoring; he produces consistently enough for cash value through one method or another. The likely pace of this game is a golden ticket for Curry to hit his minimum marker, with the upside for much more. Durant has also settled into a consistent scoring rhythm, taking 15-19 shots in 8 of 9 games thus far. He’ll always score between 20-30 points, and like Curry he carries true GPP-winning potential with his peripherals. Durant has posted nine or more rebounds four times and averages more than three blocks-plus-steals, with a healthy smattering of assists and threes. Still, he’s pricey and is ideal for GPP use. Green is just absurdly consistent, sitting right around 4.5x-5x value in every game since his big Opening Night. He contributes in so many different ways that he’s a nightly cash-game beast, even if his scoring has been tightly handcuffed. Thompson might be the top value, though, priced much closer to his floor than anyone else. He’d only need a fairly average Thompson performance to reach cash value, and he faces a Phoenix defense that’s definitively subpar against outside shooters. If you’re looking for GPP punts in the event of a blowout, note that minimum-salary Patrick McGaw has seen increased minutes of late and can fill a stat sheet.
Top Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant (GPP-preferred)
Nuggets at Trail Blazers
Vegas Line: POR -7
Total- 216.5
DENVER NUGGETS
Projected Lineup
PG- Emmanuel Mudiay
SG- Jamal Murray
SF- Danilo Gallinari
PF- Nikola Jokic
C- Jusuf Nurkic
The Nuggets are a tougher sell tonight than usual, despite their awesome matchup with a high-paced, defensively-lagging Blazers team. Denver is playing the second leg of a back-to-back, and its third game in four nights. It doesn’t help that they’ve played horribly, losing the first 2 at home by 24 and 11 points and scoring well below their seasonal average in both. They’ve shot poorly (41.6% over that span) while dealing with injuries to their scorers. With Will Barton out, Harris doubtful to play, and Wilson Chandler questionable, this might be a strong day to make a big investment in Kenneth Faried. If Harris and Chandler both sit, Faried will be locked into strong minutes, and he looks poised to produce big numbers if given 30 or more. He’s produced between 8-11 rebounds in four straight games off the bench and chimes in across the stat sheet. The pace of this game and the Blazers’ league-worst rebounding rate make Faried an intriguing play whether Chandler plays or not. Mudiay is a strong play on the small slate, as he’s hit universal 5x value in 6 of 9 games. He’s a generally inefficient scorer, but I expect strong minutes and usage tonight after seeing limited minutes in the last two. In the frontcourt, Nurkic and Jokic have seen wildly inconsistent time and production and neither are very attractive plays despite the matchup.
Top Plays – Kenneth Faried (if Chandler sits)
Secondary Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Projected Lineup
PG- Damian Lillard
SG- C.J. McCollum
SF- Maurice Harkless
PF- Alan Crabbe
C- Mason Plumlee
The Nuggets still can’t defend any position except center, and their tired squad is a fine target today. Portland already scores well against shaky defenses – they’ve topped 120 points against Phoenix and Sacramento over their last 2 games – and they could hardly be set up better here. Lillard in particular looks like an easy play; he’s a bit underpriced due to Wednesday’s clunker, which came against the league’s best defensive team. He’ll almost certainly log 35+ minutes tonight, and as the high-scoring engine of the league’s fourth-highest pace, there are no apparent hurdles. Roll him out confidently and enjoy the discount. McCollum, of course, is a hit-or-miss scorer, but it’s been all hits lately. He’s shot 56.9% over his last 4 games, scoring 31 or more points 3 times and chiming in with a handful of assists and steals. Still, even in this matchup, he’s a tough cash game sell at his elevated salary. He could win you a GPP by himself, though. Plumlee has leveled off after a torrid start, and he plays into the Nuggets’ only real line of defense. He’s a moderate GPP play tonight in a tough slate for centers. With Al-Farouq Aminu out, Harkless has been claiming most of the power forward minutes, and he’s a fair cash or GPP play. He’s seen 33+ minutes in 5 of the last 6 games, the only oddball being the blowout loss to the Clippers in which all Blazers starters lost court time. Harkless can score, rebound, and block shots, so there’s solid upside to go with his floor. Crabbe, a personal favorite of mine due to his ever-depressed salary, is a GPP-only punt but one of the best ones on this slate. He draws minutes (32+ in 4 of his last 6 games) as the team’s clear preference to Evan Turner, and when his shot is falling – as it should be tonight – he brings very cheap GPP value.
Top Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum (GPP-preferred)
Secondary Plays – Maurice Harless (GPP-preferred), Allen Crabbe (GPP-only)
