Bulls at Heat
Vegas Line: Mia -2
Total- 200
Chicago Bulls
PG- Rajon Rondo
SG- Dwyane Wade
SF- Jimmy Butler
PF- Taj Gibson
C- Robin Lopez
The Chicago Bulls are a tough team to figure out so far this year. They sit at 4-4, but the games they have lost have not been all that close, and the games they have won are the same. It seems they either get blown out, or blow opponents out. Their stats back up blowing out their opponents, but not so much getting blown out. The Bulls offense is currently sitting in the middle of the pack as they are 12th in field goal attempts, but are 10th in both 2-point, and 3-point shooting allowing them to take the 10th spot for most points scored in the league as well. Chicago is also the best rebounding team in the league averaging 1.6 more offensive rebounds than their nearest competitor, and they are top-10 in defensive rebounding as well. The stats say that they should be able to generate much more offense and maintain possession of the ball far more often than their opponents. Defensively, they are in the bottom half of the league in both 2-point, and 3-point attempts while giving up the 7th, and 8th worst shooting percentages against them from those ranges, but they are 10th in the league when it comes to real points scored giving up only 100.4 average per game, but the statistics all lead to having a mediocre 104.4 defensive rating. The stats show that they should be playing more close games, so it should be expected that the blowouts for, and against will normalize to the averages. The game against the Miami Heat should not be high scoring enough to be a blowout for either team, so expect the Bulls to get their full minutes.
Tonight, they get to take on a Miami team that is bottom in the league in offensive rating, but 6th when it comes to defensive efficiency in a game that is projected to remain close considering Chicago is only a -1.5 favorite. The game is also projected to be quite low scoring at 198.5 total. Miami’s defensive efficiency in the real statistics translates well to fantasy because while they are just below league average at giving up fantasy production to opposing guards, they are also allowing a massive 8-10% less production to opposing forwards, and centers. The only position where Miami is clearly vulnerable is against the point guard, and unfortunately for the Chicago Bulls, they have a yet-to-prove-his-fantasy-relevance Rajon Rondo starting at that spot. Rondo does not score very much, so his main duty on the team is to dole out assists to the shooters which is a statistic where he has seen a significant downtick since leading the league in assists last season. If you want to roster players against Miami, they are most vulnerable to guards, but it would be wise to stay away from targeting their interior.
Top Plays – Jimmy Butler – Jimmy Butler gets top billing here because he plays both the shooting guard, and small forward positions. He is also counted upon to fill up the peripheral stats as the team’s workhorse, so any limited scoring attempts might be mitigated by peripherals.
Secondary Plays - Dwyane Wade – Wade will be relied upon to generate most of the Bull’s offense, and his price on both sites does leave some upside for cash, and GPPs. The matchup is not ideal, but the Bull’s scoring will be pushed outside of the paint giving Wade a couple extra looks.
Miami Heat
PG- Goran Dragic
SG-Dion Waiters
SF- Justise Winslow
PF- Luke Babbitt
C- Hassan Whiteside
The Heat do not do much well as a team on either side of the ball. They hold opponents to low overall scores by keeping shooting percentages against at 41.2%/32.3% from 2-point, and 3-point range which are top-10 in the league in both categories while also being top-10 in shots attempted, but that is where the good news ends. Even though the Heat generate plenty of scoring opportunities, they are the 3rd worst in the league from 2-point range at only 41.8%. They are also extremely poor rebounders giving up the second most opponent offensive rebounds, and 6th most opponent defensive rebounds in the league. They have issues maintaining possession of the ball, and have the 2nd worst offensive efficiency meaning that not only can they not rebound the ball, but they are unable to create either real scoring, or assists even though they give themselves plenty of opportunities. Miami has major issues producing in all fantasy relevant categories making the selection of their players impractical, but Chicago has so far not shown to have much prowess defending any position apart from the point guard. The Bulls do give up between 3-5% more fantasy points than league average to all positions apart from the point which is intriguing, but they are also far better rebounders than Miami, so the Heat might not have the chance to capitalize upon the Bulls poor defense in a fantasy sense.
Top Plays – Justice Winslow on FanDuel – Winslow would not be a choice in this matchup on a larger slate, but he might be a little sneaky here because he is getting an enormous amount of minutes. His shooting percentages are quite poor, but he does get about 15 shots per game to go along with some peripheral stats. The Bulls rebounding might hold down Winslow’s peripherals, but Chicago is also weakest at guarding the small forward position, so he might not need many peripherals if his shot is falling. He is probably a bit too expensive on DraftKings, but a $4,800 price tag on FanDuel seems exploitable.
Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside – Whiteside gets second billing here because the Bulls are such better rebounders than the Heat, and the game total is expected to be low, so real scoring might also take a hit. This game will likely not be a block party either since Chicago does not generate much offense from the paint meaning scoring, and peripherals will be down across the board. Whiteside is still the highest usage player on the team and is counted upon to drive the offense down low in a game that is projected to be close, so he is still a fine choice for cash games, but likely does not have much GPP upside.
Pelicans at Bucks
Vegas Line: MIL -5.5
Total- 206.5
New Orleans Pelicans
PG- Tim Frazier
SG-E’Twaun Moore
SF-Solomon Hill
PF-Anthony Davis
C-Omer Asik
The New Orleans Pelicans are in a bad way to start the season. They are sitting at 0-8 without many bright spots statistically. They do take the 7th most shots in the league per game, but they are also converting only 43.3% of those attempts which ranks at 24th. They are in the middle of the league at 3-point attempts but are 29th place with just 27.7% when shooting from beyond the arc. The Pelicans generate plenty of scoring chances, but they are not simply getting enough of those shots to fall which is partly poor shot selection, but also bad luck. Thankfully for the Pelicans, they get to take on a Milwaukee Bucks team that is average in most defensive categories including rebounding, and real points allowed. The game will have a small downtick in pace for the Pelicans, but they should still see plenty of opportunity to create scoring and peripheral chances. Another bonus for the Pelicans is that the Bucks have been giving up worse than league average fantasy production to opposing players all around the court apart from the point guard position. The Bucks have been very good against opposing point guards in a fantasy sense as they are giving up 10% less fantasy points than league average, but that should not scare you off Tim Frazier because he is more of a facilitator than a scorer, so he has fantasy upside even on nights when he does not score real points.
Top Plays – Anthony Davis, Tim Frazier – Anthony Davis is going to be a top play almost any time he is playing because might be the most talented player in the league, and the Pelicans count on him to do pretty much everything, so his upside is massive for any price under $12,000 if you can stomach his floor.
Tim Frazier is the man who gets the ball to Davis and contributes in all statistical columns, so he should have no fantasy problems against a tough Milwaukee backcourt. He is well suited for cash, and GPP play tonight, but he is probably a better GPP play on FanDuel because he is a few hundred dollars cheaper than he is on DraftKings.
Secondary Plays –
E’Twaun Moore, Buddy Hield – Moore has been getting workhorse minutes for the Pelicans but has only translated that to fantasy relevance a couple of times this year. He should get the minutes to go along with 19% usage in a game that should remain close. He has a low floor with a decently high ceiling making him a better GPP play.
Buddy Hield has been given some more responsibilities over the last week, but he is absolutely scoring dependent. The Pelicans need this rookie to find his shooting touch if they expect to start winning games, and his ceiling is unknown because he has yet to be tested even though his floor is in the single digits. He has been getting 27% usage when he is on the floor to go along with over 10 shots per game, so he could make value at his price with scoring alone if he can figure out a way to get his shot to fall.
Milwaukee Bucks
PG- Giannis Antetekounmpo
SG- Matthew Dellavadova
SF- Tony Snell
PF- Jabari Parker
C- Miles Plumlee
The Bucks have been gifted a matchup in a paced up game against a Pelicans team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in both 2-point, and 3-point attempts as well as points allowed. The Bucks are right in the middle of the league in these three categories, so they should get a bit of a bump in scoring chances, and real points tonight. Milwaukee is also a better rebounding team than the Pelicans, so they should get a bump in peripheral stats as well. The major issue with selecting players from Milwaukee is Head Coach Jason Kidd. He has become somewhat more consistent with his rotations this year, but any player is still subject to be pulled at any time on nothing more than a whim, so be mindful when selecting anyone not named Giannis Antetokounmpo.
As for the matchup, the Pelicans are not as bad defensively as most would believe considering they are 14th in the league when it comes to defensive efficiency. In fantasy, they are quite strong against opposing point guards, and only marginally worse than league average in giving up production to shooting guards. The place to attack the Pelicans is at the Forward, and Center positions. They are giving up over 12% more fantasy points to small forwards, and a whopping 20% more fantasy points than league average to power forwards. This is great for Milwaukee because the largest part of their real, and fantasy production comes from the forward positions. Antetokounmpo might be playing point guard, but he is a shooting guard historically with the body, and play style of a forward, so the real defense vs. position statistics are somewhat misleading when considering him for your lineups.
Top Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker – Antentokounmpo under $10,500 in this matchup is underpriced, and he has as good of a chance at being the top fantasy producer on the slate as any of the other superstars.
Jabari Parker is priced just a little too high until he shows some more consistency, but he does have a reliable floor with a 35-40 fantasy point ceiling making him good for both cash, and GPP play.
Secondary Plays – Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic – Dellavedova is listed as a point guard, but plays more of a shooting guard with Antetokounmpo manning the point. The Pelicans are weak against shooting guards, and Dellavedova contributes across the board, so a 10/5/5 line would make value with a 30+ fantasy point upside.
Teletovic is one of the more interesting plays on the slate. He has been the victim of Jason Kidd’s rotations, so his minutes are questionable, but he does have serious upside if he is given floor time. The volatility in his minutes make him a GPP only candidate, but he could sniff 8x-9x value in this matchup if he receives good run.
Warriors at Nuggets
Vegas Line: GS -6
Total- 220
Golden State Warriors
PG- Steph Curry
SG- Klay Thompson
SF- Kevin Durant
PF- Draymond Green
C- Zaza Pachulia
The Golden State Warriors travel to Denver tonight to take on a Nuggets team that has gutted out some very close wins, and losses. At first glance, this game appears that it should be a blowout because Denver is generally so poor defensively, but Las Vegas oddsmakers are only giving the Warriors a -6 advantage in a game projected for a 220 overall total, so it might not be quite as far gone as you might initially think. Most of the thought that this game will remain close is likely due to Stephen Curry possibly dealing with an ankle injury, but also Golden State’s inability to keep both shots attempted and overall points given up to a manageable level could be factors as well. If Curry sits, it should be obvious that Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson will get the largest bumps, but Ian Clark has also been getting about 24% usage when Curry is off the court opposed to his normal 18% at all other times. If Curry is in the game, he might be limited in some ways, so be cautious.
The matchup could not be much better for the Warriors. The Denver Nuggets are extremely poor defensively anywhere other than the wings. They are giving up over 13% more fantasy points than league average to point guards, and forwards meaning that Durant has the opportunity to be the play of the night with possibly a larger workload to go along with a premium matchup.
Top Plays – Kevin Durant – Durant will serve as the go-to guy if Curry is limited in any fashion. He is affordable on both Fanduel as well as DraftKings and has a 60+ fantasy point upside
Secondary Plays – Draymond Green, Ian Clark – Green’s price is dwindling down to a point where the hit he has taken in production from the addition of Durant is finally making him playable again. He is not counted on to score very much, but his number would be called a couple more times if Curry were to be limited. He is also playing against a porous Denver defense that should allow for plenty of peripheral stats. Green is waiting for his first triple-double of the year, and tonight’s game will be one of the best chances he has had so far.
Ian Clark is a GPP only play, and then is only a play if Curry sits. He gets a large bump in usage when Curry is off the court, and his minimum price on both sites allows for plenty of upside against the Nuggets.
Denver Nuggets
PG- Emmanuel Mudiay
SG- Gary Harris
SF- Danilo Gallinari
PF- Nikola Jokic
C- Jusuf Nurkic
The Denver Nuggets face off against the Warriors at home tonight and might not need the fabled mile-high air effect to contribute to their ability to keep this game close considering Stephen Curry might be out or at least limited with an ankle injury. The good news for the Nuggets is that the Warriors allow opponents to score the most real points in the league off a 5th most 87.7 shot attempts per game. However, the bad news for the Nuggets is that they are only shooting a 26th 43.3% from 2-point range so far this year. They will get a significant bump in shot attempts, but they will need to find a way to get those shots to fall if they have any hopes of keeping the game close. As expected, the Warriors are tough on opposing wing positions because of Klay Thompson’s defense, but they are exploitable everywhere else on the court generally giving up the most fantasy production to front courts. This is bad news for fantasy players because Denver’s front court rotation has been anything but consistent. The players in the backcourt and the wings have been mostly stable, but it is not at all clear how the Nuggets will choose to run the Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried, and Jusuf Nurkic rotation on any given night, so these players are only GPP viable until Denver employs some front court consistency.
Top Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay – Mudiay should take over 15 shots tonight, and will also contribute to all peripheral categories meaning he should have a high floor, and large upside on both sites to make him cash, and GPP viable.
Secondary Plays – Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic – All of these players are in the same predicament. Any of their minutes can be cut at any time if Denver decides to go small which they should against Golden State. It would make the most sense to run Kenneth Faried more than Jokic tonight, but there is no guarantee any of them will see 25+ minutes.
Lakers at Kings
Vegas Line: SAC -5.5
Total- 209.5
Los Angeles Lakers
PG- D’Angelo Russell
SG- Nick Young
SF- Luol Deng
PF- Julius Randle
C- Timofey Mozgov
The Lakers are coming up a bit in the world from where they were after last season. They are sitting at 8th place in the Western Conference with a 4-4 record, and have dug themselves out of the offensive, and defensive efficiency basements to the 14th, and 21st places respectively. Sure, 21st place defensively might not seem like much, but they have bottomed out the league the past few years, so being near the middle third of the league is an exponential improvement. They also have gone from 27th in overall rebound rating last year to 8th in the just first few weeks of the season. That is a huge turnaround and needs to be noted because one of the places to attack the Lakers historically has been with good rebounders which might not be the case any longer.
Los Angeles takes on a much different Sacramento Kings team than daily fantasy players have previously known, and everyone is still getting used to their new look. This will be a pace way down for the Lakers against a Kings team that has only been allowing a 6th best 80.6 shot attempts per game leading to a 101.9 opponent scoring average which is in the bottom half of the league. The Kings still have quite a poor defensive efficiency rating at 106.7 which is good for 23rd in the league, so they are still bad defensively, but they now play at the 2nd slowest pace in the league therefore effectively limiting scoring chances from opposing offenses. The Kings are exploitable all over the court but have been hard on opposing point guards. Lakers are still in play here because the Kings are a very bad defensive team, but you are going to want to focus on players with high scoring attempts because the overall shot attempts will be severely limited.
Top Plays – Lou Williams, Nick Young – The minutes should be there for both of these players, and they do not do much else than shoot the ball, so their attempts might combine for over 1/3rd of all of the Lakers shots tonight.
Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson – The minutes and the shot attempts have been there every game for Clarkson, but he has had trouble being fantasy relevant because he has dealt with a few very poor shooting games, and has not been able to contribute in multiple categories. He should have a relatively safe floor and does have quite a bit of upside at his currently depressed price tag on nights when his shot is falling.
Sacramento Kings
PG- Darren Collison
SG- Arron Afflalo
SF- Rudy Gay
PF- DeMarcus Cousins
C- Kosta Koufos
The Sacramento Kings are desperately attempting to change their scheme this year. They have gone from one of the fastest-paced teams in the league to the 2nd slowest. To go along with their new style, they have the 2nd lowest shots attempted per game, and 8th lowest average point total per game as well. The Kings’ shooting percentages are hovering around the middle of the league which is reflected in their 4-5 record, so they do not take very many shots, and they do not make enough of the shots they do take to shower most of their players with fantasy relevance. Tonight is a great time to give some King’s players a chance though.
Sacramento will be playing a game way up in pace considering Los Angeles plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the entire league. Surprisingly, the Lakers do not give up many shots. Even considering their fast past, they only allow 85.5 shots per game which is 13th in the league. However, they also allow a 3rd worst 2-point percentage against at 47.2% which translates into a 7th highest average points allowed at 108.5, so the Lakers do not contest opposing team’s shots quite hard enough. The Kings might not get a huge bump in shot attempts, but the shots they do take should be largely open, or uncontested looks, so any Kings player who takes around 10 attempts is worth a look. As should be expected, the Lakers’ very poor shooting percentage against translates best to fantasy in the way that they give up 10% more points to point guards, and shooting guards than the league average because those positions generally take the majority of a team’s shots. The Kings are built a bit differently in that Rudy Gay, and DeMarcus Cousins combine for about half of the team’s total shot attempts, so the offense is generated from the forward positions. The rest of the shots are distributed mostly evenly, but Darren Collison will likely take his place as the #3 option once he is fully acclimated to the team now that he has served his suspension.
Top Plays – DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay – DeMarcus Cousins is far too cheap on FanDuel for this matchup, and is still too cheap on DraftKings even at $800 more. He should have no challenge scoring at will, and might see a small uptick in assists considering the Lakers allowed shooting percentage.
Rudy Gay is getting to be almost too expensive to roster in a GPP, but tonight is a short slate, so he is still in play. He will likely be one of the highest owned cash game plays of the night because he has a very high floor, so you might want to find elsewhere to differentiate your cash lineups.
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison – Collison is another cash game type play because of his price. He is too expensive to roster in a GPP considering his level of fantasy production, but he has no minutes restrictions, and should account for the largest part of the Kings’ shot attempts after what Gay, and Cousins leave the team.
