This week we discuss the following:
- Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford
- Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin
- C.J. Anderson
- Mike Wallace
- Older players: any gas in the tank?
- Baltimore handcuff
- Seattle handcuff
- Terrelle Pryor
Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford
We've got a couple former high draft picks who had impressive rookie seasons at quarterback trying to bounce back this season. Who has more upside potential: Robert Griffin III III or Sam Bradford? (Is the answer different depending on whether we're talking about just this season or their careers as a whole?)
Daniel Simpkins: Comparing them outside of their 2015 team structure and in a vacuum, I believe Robert Griffin III III has more upside than Sam Bradford at this point. While both have taken a physical beating, Griffin is much younger and basically has the bulk of his career in front of him. If Bradford sustains one more major injury, both his body and his psyche may not be able to handle the blow. Griffin has seemingly learned from experience that he will have to develop his game in the pocket if he has any hope of preserving his body. If 2015 goes poorly in Washington, it is almost a certainty that there will be another team out there intrigued enough to give Griffin a shot. When team dynamics are considered, I actually believe Bradford has the edge in 2015 due to operating out of the Chip Kelly system. If he can avoid injury (and that’s a huge if) he’ll outproduce the tepid Washington offense.
Stephen Holloway: I have lost faith in Robert Griffin III III. His rookie season was phenomenal, but he has just not been the same since his injury in the playoffs that year. Last season, he averaged fewer yards per attempt and had a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio than either Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy. His inability to use his legs seems to have eroded his confidence as a whole and particularly his decision-making. In his rookie year, he passed for 20 touchdowns, ran for seven touchdowns and only threw five interceptions. In two seasons since then, he has thrown for 20 touchdowns, ran for one TD and thrown 18 interceptions. There seems to still be some disconnect between Griffin and Washington's coaching staff, which further limits my expectations.
I am not a Bradford believer, primarily because he has been so unreliable. Since being drafted number one overall by the Rams in 201, Bradford has only played in 49 games, missing 29 including all of the 2014 season. Even when he has played, he has only completed 58.6% of his passes and has a career 6.29 yards per attempt. He does have a great opportunity this year if he can remain healthy as the Eagles starting quarterback. Even though Coach Kelly loves to run the ball, his quarterbacks have averaged about 4,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. I am still not counting on Bradford staying healthy, but if he does he should be more productive that Griffin and could sign a long-term contract to remain with Philadelphia.
Andy Hicks: If we are talking fantasy then both have upside and a very low floor for this year. I think Bradford has the better upside due to the explosive offense and volume of stats he could accumulate. Griffin will be trying to restore his reputation and not be responsible for the downfall of another coach. I doubt Griffin becomes what he could have been based on his rookie season. His ego and injury seems like it will prevent him getting anywhere near the upside he could have had. I do have him ranked higher than any other staff member, but that is due to all the pieces around him being in place for him to succeed. No more excuses. I would evaluate all information on his training camp and preseason progress though as this situation could go south very quickly.
My concerns around Bradford are purely on his knee holding up. Same injury two years in a row is bad sign for the future. If he plays and comes to grips with the offense quickly then the sky is the limit. He is an excellent investment as his price is unlikely to be lower. If he can stay on the field then he will produce and do it well. If he gets injured again, especially a knee injury then he may not play again. He has the smarts and ability to be an elite quarterback...if it weren't for that knee.
Jason Wood: As an Eagles fan, I'm sure you all expect me to say Sam Bradford, but that would be incorrect. As others have already articulated, Griffin has the higher upside. Bradford is in a great system, sure, but we have five seasons of ineptitude from Bradford. He's had two ACL tears, shoulder problems and when he has played? Not good. For all the strife Griffin received since a dastardly knee injury ended his Pro Bowl rookie season, he's still been the much better player career-to-date:
- Completion Rate—Griffin (63.9%) vs. Bradford (58.6%)
- TD rate—Griffin (3.8%) vs. Bradford (3.4%)
- Yards-per-Attempt—Griffin (7.4) vs. Bradford (6.3)
- Interception Rate—Griffin (2.2%) vs. Bradford (2.2%)
- Passer Rating—Griffin (90.6) vs. Bradford (79.3)
Both have serious injury concerns, and both have fallen on hard times. And Bradford is in the best system of his career. But I'm still placing my chips on the younger guy that we've seen be ELITE at the NFL level.
Chris Feery: I like Bradford for 2015, Griffin long-term. Obvious concerns about Bradford staying healthy aside, I'll take a Chip Kelly quarterback all day. For Kelly to take this much of a risk by giving the keys to Bradford, he obviously views Bradford as great fit for his system. I'll go with the mad scientist on this one; Bradford's football IQ will come to the forefront this season and he will thrive in Philly. Long-term, I would say Griffin but with the caveat that I don't think it will be in Washington. He is a poor game or two away from being thrown under the bus by Gruden again; this has all the makings of a bad relationship that doesn't know when to throw in the towel. A change of scenery after this season could benefit both. Put Griffin in the right system and he could transition into a solid mid-level QB, I think his days of elite potential may be over but he can still carve out a long-term role in the league.
Matt Waldman: Short-term, I'm sold on the team that has the best offensive line and the simplest system for a quarterback and receiving corps to execute. The answer is Bradford. I understand why Jason Wood's stats point to Griffin, but Bradford never played behind a quality line or a system patterned to one extreme end of his talents. Griffin was pampered to the point of disadvantage with the Washington-Shanahan system. Once he got hurt, that system didn't work as well. And once the Washington organization's expiration date on functional organizational dynamics expired, Mike Shanahan was up to his old tricks, thumbing his nose at his own team and players to make a statement.
Cecil Lammey talks all the time about Mike Shanahan never calling a roll out for Jake Plummer after the quarterback went to a Pro Bowl and led the Broncos to the AFC Championship on the strength of this play as a major part of the offense. Lammey cited Shanahan's desire to insert Jay Cutler into the offense at an accelerated pace as the reason. In Washington, Griffin played behind a ton of max protection sets where he only had 2-3 receivers running routes against defenses that still had the horses to pressure this max protect scheme with a minimal amount of linemen while dropping enough defenders into coverage that the receivers were well covered.
Injuries, dysfunction, and coaching changes were big reasons Griffin's future looks cloudy at best. If the team can improve its pass protection and remain patient with Griffin while demanding him to be a pocket passer, Griffin has the tools to succeed beyond any expectations for Bradford long-term. While Bradford throws a beautiful deep ball and has more experience as a traditional pocket passer, Griffin has the arm and there's a lot of tape of him at Baylor where he displays good pocket presence. His pocket skills never got the early development in the read option offense during his first two seasons in Washington and Griffin regressed.
In terms of current skills, Bradford is the better player and the safer long-term option if he continues to play in the superior system with a better offensive line. In terms of upside potential based on physical skills, development of technical skills, and smarts, Griffin has a slight edge even with a bum knee that may force him to reset his game as a pocket player.
John Mamula: I agree with Chris as I want Sam Bradford's upside potential playing in the Chip Kelly offense. I believe Philadelphia made the investment in Bradford due to his quarterback intelligence. Bradford scored a high rating of 36 on the NFL Wonderlic Test prior to entering the league. This is a comparable score to other elite quarterbacks such as Matt Stafford (38), Andrew Luck (37), and Aaron Rodgers (35). Sam Bradford never got a chance to prove himself in the NFL due to injuries and a lack of supporting cast in St. Louis. I believe the trade to Philadelphia will do wonders for his career. Kelly's up-tempo offense will focus on Bradford getting the ball out of his hands in a fast and efficient manner.
I don't see the upside for Robert Griffin III III in 2015. Griffin will try to adapt to Jay Gruden's offense rather than taking the team on his shoulders as he did his rookie season. Griffin will be asked to be more of a game manager and I suspect we will see very few designed quarterback runs. Thus, Griffin may turn out to be a better real life NFL quarterback in 2015 rather than a quarterback that I want to target on my fantasy team.
Mark Wimer: I'm with Steve on Robert Griffin III III—he seems to have lost his way in the NFL since the serious knee injury and I don't think he makes it back to quarterback number one status in fantasy circles. He does have a strong supporting cast surrounding him so we could see some "flashes" of fantasy production when matchups are good—I have him at #17 on my quarterbacks board as of August 11, one of the higher rankings among the Footballguys.com staff—but #17 is a long way from starting quarterback status in fantasy leagues.
Regarding Bradford, all news out of training camp has been positive, and I am receptive to the idea of moving him up my boards but only IF he looks comfortable in the Philadelphia offense. Right now he's at quarterback 25 on my boards, so Bradford has a lot of room to move up. The chemistry we see or don't see with youngsters Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor in the preseason will determine whether I boost Bradford or if he stays mired in quarterback number three territory.
Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin
Which effect will be larger: Jeremy Maclin will help Alex Smith's fantasy prospects, or Alex Smith will drag down Jeremy Maclin's fantasy prospects?
Daniel Simpkins: I think Maclin helps Smith’s fantasy prospects, but remember how low the bar is to begin with. Everyone was worried before the 2014 season about the Panthers’ receiving corps being the worst in the league, but in terms of production, it actually turned out that Kansas City’s was the worst. The receivers in this offense were so rotten last year that not a one of them scored a touchdown! While Maclin isn’t a revelation at the position, I do believe he’s much better than Dwayne Bowe at this point in his career. He’ll score four or five touchdowns this year to help boost Smith’s numbers, if only slightly.
Stephen Holloway: I definitely think that Maclin is an excellent fit for Coach Reid's offense and for Alex Smith's abilities. Maclin is good down the field, but he is also a great catch-and-run guy. Going to Kansas City is also a homecoming for him as he played collegiately at Missouri. As such, I am projecting a much better season for Maclin than most. I am the one of two staffers who rank him at WR20 or higher. Still since Maclin finished as WR9 last year in Philadelphia, even though I expect him to outperform his ADP and projections, Alex Smith will drag down Maclin's fantasy prospects more than Maclin will raise Smith's.
Andy Hicks: To reach his current ADP Jeremy Maclin needs to get about 130 fantasy points in a standard league or 200 in a PPR league. That would mean stats somewhere around 70-820-8, 70-1000-5, 70-1120-3 or 70-1300-0. The key figure is the touchdown one. The baseline is incredibly low for Maclin here and any touchdown will be an improvement on last year for the Chiefs. Maclin is an improvement on Bowe though. Reid and Bowe never clicked and Bowe may have been past his best anyway. All that said, I think it will be Smith who drags Maclin down ultimately though. Smith has a proven method for success, but it doesn't include a deep ball. Maybe Andy Reid tires of the limitations of Smith, but the backup options are unproven and if the move were unsuccessful it is likely to backfire heavily on Maclin owners. I would let someone else take the risk that it all works out for Maclin this year as the upside here is relatively close to his ADP. There are better options than Maclin in the same draft spot.
Jason Wood: Maclin will help Smith more than Smith will hurt Maclin. Maclin is a perfect fit for Andy Reid's system and Alex Smith had an abominable receiving situation last year. Everyone is fixated on the stat that Smith failed to complete a touchdown pass to a wide receiver last year, but let's not forget that he's completed plenty of touchdowns to receivers over his career, including several key throws in 49ers playoff games. To be clear, I think the overall conservative nature of the Chiefs offense assures Maclin can repeat last year's numbers, but he can still be a viable fantasy starter in 12-team leagues.
Chris Feery: Maclin helps Smith's fantasy prospects tremendously and I don't think Smith drags him down. Smith gets a bad rap as a game manager type and had horrific production from his receivers last season. Maclin provides an instant upgrade; I'm in the camp that believes he will really open up the Chiefs offense. Add in the familiarity with Andy Reid's offense from his days in Philly and he should be productive right out of the gate. A huge focus for the Chiefs in camp thus far has been looking to improve the downfield passing game. Maclin is the man to help Smith make that happen, I think he finishes the year in the top 20 for receivers but can be had later than that in drafts.
Matt Waldman: Maclin will elevate Smith—not enough to consider Smith more than a safe fantasy QB2 with a low fantasy ceiling, but Maclin's presence is a benefit. I have Maclin No.18 among fantasy receivers, which I believe is the highest among the staff. I've always viewed Maclin as an all-around competent starter, but I've never been a huge fan. Although Maclin can win versus contact and he has the speed to win in the open field, he's not a bully like Dez Bryant and he's not a formula one racer like Isaac Bruce back in the day. What he does well is get to the spot where he's supposed to be and make the play.
Alex Smith has not had this kind of player in Kansas City. Dwayne Bowe has been known for his lack of discipline and consistency. Bowe was always at his best as a screen receiver or a 50-50 catcher. Ask him to run precise routes and he isn't the technician that Smith needs. The rest of the receiving corps consists of castoffs, late-round picks, and size-speed misfits best for the slot. Smith is a competent NFL passer, but neither an athletic mismatch with his arm or legs nor a creative player outside the structure of the play. There's nothing special about Smith.
Maclin's consistency should gel well enough with Smith and bring out the best in the quarterback. Considering what Maclin did with Michael Vick and Nick Foles/Mark Sanchez, three guys with a wide spectrum of skills reading coverage, I think it's reasonable to consider Maclin in the 18-25 range among receivers. The Chiefs have a potentially great threat to complement him in Travis Kelce and two players in De'Anthony Thomas and Jamaal Charles who also have the skill to take a short pass a long distance. Maclin runs the routes Smith needs to have confidence in the receiver as a primary option. I think the route skills benefit Smith.
John Mamula: This one isn't even close. Alex Smith will drag down Jeremy Maclin's fantasy prospects in 2015. Since entering the league in 2005, Alex Smith's best season saw him throw for 3,313 and 23 touchdowns. Smith's typical output per game is 150-250 passing yards with 1-2 touchdowns. Smith has made comments in the past that he could absolutely care less about passing yards per game. He said that it is an overblown stat because if you're losing games in the second half your offense needs to go no-huddle to try to come back. Smith is the true definition of a game manager and not exactly the type of quarterback that I am excited to slot into my starting roster. Andy Reid's formula for success in Kansas City is defense and a steady dose of Jamaal Charles. This will continue in 2015.
C.J. Anderson
C.J. Anderson is sneaking into the late first round of a lot of recent 12-team drafts. How comfortable are you that he'll be the featured back all season, rather than giving way to some kind of committee? Is his track record (about half a season as a starter) sufficient to warrant selecting around the 1/2 turn, or despite his admittedly high upside, do you perceive his floor to be too low for that kind of investment?
Bob Henry: The primary concern I have with Anderson is the same I have for any elite-level, first round running back—injury. If you play running back in the NFL (or any level for that matter), you're going to get hurt. It's when, not if. Anderson projects as a top five back in all scoring formats, although the loss of Ryan Clady is concerning. It seems like the general public has swept that nugget under the carpet while his ADP has consistently risen throughout the summer. Montee Ball is worth a late round hand cuff either way.
Daniel Simpkins: I’m extremely comfortable taking him in the late first. Anderson is competent, and backs that fit this description in a Peyton Manning offense always seem to thrive. I’m always disappointed when owners try to use whether a guy has a “good track record” or if he’s a “proven player” as their standard for selecting their draft picks. With that kind of thinking, how will you ever hit on incoming rookie talent? How will you find the hidden gems that emerge when they finally get a shot? More importantly, how will you ever win your league without taking risks? As Bob pointed out, if you are concerned about Anderson’s health, Ball is one of the cheaper handcuff options this year.
Stephen Holloway: I am hesitant to take Anderson that early, particularly if we are talking about PPR-scoring leagues. In those leagues, I tend to rank the top tier wide receivers similarly to running backs. Even though Anderson is my RB8, I would likely not draft him till toward the end of the second round. HIs lack of a track record is an issue, because the majority of his carries and production came in weeks 12-17, when Montee Ball was out. Over the first nine weeks of the season, Anderson had only 17 carries for 82 yards, four catches for 34 yards and no touchdowns. The remainder of the year, he had 162 carries for 767 yards, 30 catches for 290 yards and 10 touchdowns. The lack of a capable back-up during his productive stretch allows me to wonder whether Anderson's number of carries will be reduced by Ball's availability. Ball had success as a rookie, averaging 4.7 yards per reception on 120 carries before missing most of last year with injuries.
Andy Hicks: I would love C.J. Anderson if John Fox and Adam Gase were still around. The change to Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison is a boon for the running game so there is that going for it, but which running back do they like best? After trying and failing with Ron Dayne at the beginning of their Texans tenure they had moderate success with the lowly rated Steve Slaton and then incredible success with the undrafted Arian Foster. Add in an implausible resurrection of Justin Forsett in Baltimore last year and they have a proven track record of backs that other teams shy away from. C.J. Anderson will be given first shot, but are there backs they like better? Maybe Montee Ball is fully fit and becomes what he was expected to be last year? Maybe Ronnie Hillman suits this team? Juwan Thompson, Jeremy Stewart or whoever else is on the roster all have a chance to impress. We don't know who this staff is going to like best or who will make the final roster. Even if Anderson is first on the ground, does he suit their scheme as much as another guy that makes the roster and they want to see eventually running the ball. The price of a first round pick is too much to bear for me and as we saw in Montee Ball last year it doesn't always work out the way people expect. If Anderson is the guy they like and all other things are equal then he is likely to finish as an RB1...easily. He is a good risk, but a risk nonetheless.
Jason Wood: I'm absolutely comfortable with Anderson. Anderson was dominant once he got on the field, and the new coaches have done nothing to suggest Anderson isn't their guy. We know Kubiak's system is ideally suited to Anderson's style, and most importantly, Kubiak believes in using one workhorse on three downs. He's got the talent and the opportunity to thrive. What's not to love?
Chris Feery: Jason nailed my thoughts. I'm 100% comfortable with Anderson in the first round. Perfect fit for Kubiak's system, Broncos will be looking for more balance on offense to reduce the strain on Manning and he has the talent to succeed as a three down back. Ball is the handcuff for injury concerns and will see some change of pace snaps, but Anderson is the man in Denver. Draft him.
Matt Waldman: I fear placing too much importance on one pick and yes, I believe a half a season as a starter is enough to see what a player can do if you're watching for the correct factors. Corey Dillon started six games as a rookie in 1997 and his output was the first of six consecutive seasons with at least 1100 yards rushing. Steve Slaton had nearly 1300 yards rushing as a rookie in 15 starts and it was the beginning of the end.
Dillon, and running backs like him with limited starts early who thrive long-term, display smart decision-making, skill after contact, and the requisite physical skills commensurate with a starter. Whether you're a big, strong back or a smaller, agile runner, these three basic factors matter.
Slaton, a promising scat back with excellent receiving skills, proved to be a determined runner in the sense that he'd keep his legs moving after contact. But he didn't display great decision-making between the tackles. It seems odd to say this about a back that rushed for 1282 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, but it happens. Look at Nick Foles' 2013 season and all of the games where he benefited from defenses not making the quarterback pay for errant throws under pressure—including a few near-interceptions that the defense tipped into Philadelphia touchdowns. Foles returned to earth in 2014 and displayed the same issues he had in 2013, only with defenses capitalizing. Derek Anderson and Scott Mitchell also had one great season only to fail over the course of their careers as starters. Slaton had several runs in 2008 where he should have been tackled in the pile, but blindly spun out of the mass for large gains because defenses failed to keep their collective eyes up and wrap up. Defenses did a better job exposing Slaton's weaknesses in 2009 than they did in 2008. Slaton's decision-making and skill after contact proved to be lacking.
Anderson has shown enough well before he earned his starting opportunity that he has the burst, lateral agility, decision-making, and power to start in the league. He's also paired in an offense and with a quarterback that has turned journeymen into reliable fantasy starters (Kubiak, Justin Forsett and Slaton for one year; Manning, Dominic Rhodes and arguably Knowshon Moreno). I want Anderson as one of my first two backs.
Justin Howe: At the moment, here's the split I have projected for Denver's rushes (I only project 97.5% and leave the rest to fullbacks, wideouts, and deep reserves):
- Anderson 61% (278 rushes)
- Ball 23.5% (100 rushes)
- Hillman 8% (34 rushes)
- Manning 5% (23 rushes)
Last year as the starter, Anderson saw 71% of team rushes. So this projection would be a pretty sizeable drop-off, as though the team was firmly committed to cutting Anderson's workload (why?) and/or getting more Ball and Hillman onto the field (why?). And ultimately, even my "pessimistic" projections make Anderson the number three per-game running back—behind only LeVeon Bell and Arian Foster, both of whom are missing chunks of the year.
I can't imagine Anderson turning in anything less than a fantasy RB1 workload. Kubiak doesn't split the ball among his backs as some kind of rule; the only time he's done that recently is when managing the fragile Arian Foster. Aside from two very banged-up seasons, Foster posted 21.2 rushes a game as Kubiak's starter. Prior to that, we saw him give RB1 workloads to the likes of Steve Slaton and Ron Dayne. In Anderson, he has a Peyton-approved dual threat for a high-octane, high-volume offense. Nothing within 260-300 carries would surprise me.
John Mamula: I am confident that C.J. Anderson will be the featured back all season or until injury gives way to Montee Ball. Anderson floor should be high enough to warrant a first round pick but I am not sure about his ceiling. Other first round running backs, LeVeon Bell, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles, all have significantly higher ceilings as compared to Anderson. I would only draft Anderson in the late first round in standard, non-PPR leagues. In PPR leagues, It is imperative to target elite wide receivers, such as Odell Beckham Jr, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones, in the late first round. If you draft Anderson at the end of the first round, you are starting your core roster off with a fantasy running back that is graded below the other top running backs (Bell, Pederson, Charles), that are being drafted earlier in the same round. By targeting an elite wide receiver in the end of the first round, your team has access to a higher overall ceiling from a different position as compared to the teams slotted at the top of the draft. I have found that this is a better recipe for success in winning your PPR league as long as you can hit on your running backs in rounds 2-5.
Mike Wallace
Will Mike Wallace be a better fit in Minnesota than he was in Miami?
Daniel Simpkins: I think so. Wallace and Tannehill did ok together (better than public perception if you actually look at the numbers), but they seemed to be out-of-sync a majority of the time when it came to connecting on the long pass. By all accounts, Wallace and Teddy seem to have the rapport flowing in camp. Observers also recount that Teddy’s deep ball looks better. He attributes that improvement to the muscle that he’s put on during the offseason. I’m advocating picking Wallace in the seventh round of drafts or later.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Daniel. I think that Wallace comes into a situation that is a much better fit for his skills than the Miami offense. Daniel is also correct in that Wallace's production in Miami was better than most realize. He caught 140 passes for 1,792 yards and scored 15 touchdowns in his two seasons there, even though he managed only 12.8 yards per reception against his career 15.6 yards per reception. In non-PPR scoring, Wallace finished as WR25 and WR18 in his two seasons in Miami. He public perception was more about failing to live up to the high contract that he signed and the poor attitude that he displayed, possibly somewhat a result of the media and fan disappointment. I think that he is an excellent choice to outperform his current ADP of WR31 and his average staff ranking of WR28.
Andy Hicks: I am optimistic about Mike Wallace. Like Daniel and Stephen, I think his performance in Miami is considerably underrated. He finished as a WR2 in both years there and never really connected with Ryan Tannehill. Obviously he needs to build a rapport with Teddy Bridgewater, but most observers seem to think Bridgewater has a much better deep ball than Tannehill and Wallace should find a new lease on life in Minnesota. I currently have the highest rating of all staff on the guy, but am well aware that he has an element of risk. The situation, however, is perfectly set up for him to even finish as a WR1 this season. Incredible upside for a guy currently going as the 31st wide receiver on draft boards. Adrian Peterson has to be respected by most defenses, while the combination of Kyle Rudolph, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson are going to keep the middle of the field honest. If Wallace is motivated and on the same page as the rest of the offense, look out. All things considered, his draft price is well worth the risk.
Jason Wood: Absolutely. Wallace is a talent, and his inability to synch up with Tannehill is just one of those oddities of NFL life. Norv Turner's offense is built around a ground attack and an effective play-action that draws in the defense and then goes over the top. Wallace's best trait (but not his only one) remains his ability to make plays vertically. It's a perfect match.
Chris Feery: Definitely a better fit in Minnesota. As Jason said, Wallace is a perfect fit for the Norv Turner offense. Minnesota's offense as a whole should be much improved this year with an expected leap forward from Bridgewater and Peterson on a mission to run through everything. As others have mentioned, Wallace's production in Miami was not horrible but his attitude was. I expect him to be sufficiently motivated to prove that his time in Miami was simply a bad fit and that he has plenty left to offer. Wallace could end up being a steal at his current draft position.
Matt Waldman: Wallace should have a better year in Minnesota if for no other reason than he admitted that he became part of the problem in Miami and he knows that he needs to rebound if he wants to rehab his reputation and still have a future in the NFL. As for on-field reasons, Teddy Bridgewater still has some development ahead of him in the NFL, but he's ahead of Ryan Tannehill as a passer when judging them based on their first seasons in the league. Bridgewater has better feel for the pocket, better touch, smarter with the play breaks down, and more overall intelligence for the position than what I saw from the Miami QB—and I have always liked Tannehill.
I also think Minnesota has a better offense. Wallace and Johnson are better now as a 1-2 punch of starters than whatever 1-2 punch the Dolphins piece together with its top four options. Miami has more depth and DeVante Parker will eventually go a long way towards evening the playing field, but today Wallace-Johnson-Rudolph are smarter and more versatile. The ground game in Minnesota also outclasses the Dolphins' unit and sets up more play action opportunities. I won't be surprised if one of the Dolphins receivers out-plays Wallace and Johnson this year statistically, but I think Wallace should improve his YPC average in this system while approaching 8-10 touchdowns.
John Mamula: Most definitely. I agree with Jason Wood's comments regarding Norv Turner's offensively system. Mike Wallace is a great fit for this offense as defenses will be keying on Adrian Peterson. The play action passing game sets up perfectly for Wallace in this system. Wallace was never a good fit in Miami due to Ryan Tannehill's lack of a long ball. In an earlier roundtable on the Dolphins passing game, Justin Howe mentioned some numbers that shocked me. In 2014, Tannehill only had three TD passes of 20+ yards or more. In Norv Turner's system, Wallace has a good chance to best those numbers before the quarter mark of the season. In daily fantasy leagues, Wallace makes a great GPP play as he will have the potential to always unleash an 80-yard touchdown.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Jason that the fit in Minnesota is better for his skill set, and I think Wallace is in the mix for finishing among the top-20 fantasy wide receivers this season. He's not a top tier prospect, but he should be a respectable fantasy WR2.
Older players: any gas in the tank?
There's a saying that it's better to give up on a player a year too early than a year too late. The following players are all being drafted as fantasy starters (in 1/2/3/1/1/1 leagues). Which ones are most likely to leave their fantasy owners regretting that they hadn't jumped off the bandwagon sooner?
Bob Henry: The only one I'm leaning towards is Peyton Manning although my reservation there has more to do with an increased focus on running the ball and less about his physical decline or waning arm strength. By emphasizing the running game more, Gary Kubiak might actually help Peyton play at a higher level longer into the season. I still expect him to reach 30 touchdowns and 4,000+ yards, but in today's NFL that won't be enough to crack the top five. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes closer to the bottom end of the QB1 rung either, but not because he has run out of gas.
As for Gore and Johnson, I'm fully onboard for their renaissance with the Colts, arguably the league's most potent offense. If anything, I expect an uptick in production for both. The Colts should fully use Gore as a receiver, unlike his past few years in San Francisco, and Johnson will benefit from working with an elite quarterback for the first time along with a loaded group of skill players surrounding him and a healthy amount of targets to boot.
Witten is like clockwork. Any gradual decline in his physical abilities could be offset by a Cowboys offense that might need to pass more often than last year. The running game could continue to fire on all cylinders without DeMarco Murray, but there's a non-zero chance it doesn't, and even a slight decline in the run-pass ratio will be enough to keep Witten firmly among the top five to ten PPR tight ends.
Daniel Simpkins: I’m going to pick Jason Witten. I’m a Volunteers fan, so I saw plenty of Witten as a college prospect. He was so much fun to watch in college and then as he made a splash in the pro game. There’s no question he’s had a hall-of-fame-worthy career. When I watch 2014 Cowboys games, I can see clearly that he’s slowing down. Though I am predicting the Cowboys to have a need to pass more this year without Murray in the running game, I think the extra targets will go primarily to Bryant, Lance Dunbar, and Cole Beasley. Witten is one of those picks people make because he’s “safe.” At 33 years old and with no real upside, I would argue he is anything but “safe” for fantasy owners. By taking him so early, you are likely missing out on guys drafted well after him that will likely match his production and have so much more upside. Dwayne Allen, Tyler Eifert, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins come to mind.
Stephen Holloway: Frank Gore is my pick. Even though Gore has been extremely productive running for over 1,100 yards in each of the previous four seasons and not missing a single game, he enters training camp at the age of 32 and has 2,443 NFL rushing attempts. Since 2000 there have been only three running backs at age of 32 or greater that topped 1,000 rushing yards, with Ricky Williams being the last six years ago in 2009. Since Andrew Luck has been with the Colts, their rushing attack has been pathetic, with running back rushing attempts dropping each year to 337 last year and all three years averaging under 4.0 ypc. The strength of the Colts is Andrew Luck and their amazing group of receivers. The Colts return T.Y. Hilton (82 rec), Coby Fleener (51), Dwayne Allen (29) and Donte Moncrief (32) and replace Reggie Wayne (64) with Andre Johnson (85 with Houston). They also added their first round pick, Phillip Dorsett who has speed and can take the top off defenses. The team might run a little more this year and Gore should be more efficient than the Colts recent running backs, but even with 1,103 rushing yards last year Gore finished as RB16 in standard scoring and RB21 in PPR scoring. He is a year older, on a new team and currently going at RB15 and has a staff ranking of RB13. I doubt he produces this year to his expectations and next year his opportunities may be gone.
Andy Hicks: I think the risk is directly associated to their current average draft positions.
Jason Witten is an eighth round draft pick this year that has been gradually declining since his number one ranking of 2010. At age 33 it would be a surprise to see a resurrection, but it happened with Antonio Gates last year and Tony Gonzalez before that. His current draft price is acceptable for a probable decline and the small chance of upside.
Andre Johnson is an early fifth round pick. At age 34 and on a new team he still has possibilities for improvement with a quarterback of the quality of Andrew Luck. It is also theoretical that with the depth the Colts have at receiver he gets squeezed out and is in his last year. Out of all the elite and former elite wide receivers of recent years, his touchdown numbers are among the poorest. This is a reflection of the run dominated Texans and poor quarterback play. He is an acceptable risk and has considerable upside if these touchdown numbers improve.
As we move up the draft board the risk and price becomes less tolerable. Peyton Manning is an early fourth round pick right now and 39 year old quarterbacks with fantasy pedigree are scarce. Add in a new head coach, a likely domination of the running game and two departing receivers in Wes Welker and Julius Thomas and the odds of Manning getting anywhere near his ADP are slim. Manning was almost unstartable in his last five games with only five touchdowns and six interceptions. I hope I'm wrong about the great man, but he has the potential to ruin many drafts this year.
Ultimately onto the guy I want to talk about in Frank Gore. Like Stephen, I am concentrating on the historical side to point me in the right direction. People have been writing off Frank Gore for years and he has proven them wrong. That was when he was on the team that drafted him. The history of guys with 2000+ carries, moving to a new team after the age of 30 is horrific.
Here's how they have done in the last 20-25 years, with their age and fantasy ranking in their first year at a new club:
- Emmitt Smith 34—62nd
- Edgerrin James 31—98th
- Eric Dickerson 32—33rd
- Eric Dickerson 33—49th
- Franco Harris 34—103rd
- Tony Dorsett 34—30th
- Thurman Thomas 34—69th
- Eddie George 31—41st
- Steven Jackson 30—32nd
- Warrick Dunn 31—33rd
- Fred Taylor 33—83rd
- Shaun Alexander 31—141st
- O.J. Simpson 31—52nd
- Ricky Williams 34—51st
- LaDainian Tomlinson 31—16th
- Thomas Jones 32—24th
- Marcus Allen 33—5th
These guys aren't schlubs, these are hall of famers or thereabouts in almost all cases. Only one guy exceeded Frank Gore's current ADP in Marcus Allen. I repeat the only one was 22 years ago.
Of course everyone thinks Frank Gore will be different, but hindsight is a wonderful tool. I'll take foresight with historical perspective as my guide on this one.
Jason Wood: None of them. I'll never peg Manning as a bust without another injury. He's pretty much a football cyborg. Gore is a PERFECT fit in Indianapolis. Let's remember Ahmad Bradshaw was a top 10 fantasy running back before getting hurt last year; and Gore is better than Bradshaw in every way. Andre Johnson worries me a LITTLE bit, but I can't bet on a total flop this year. As for Witten? He was TE10 last year in what was considered a down year. To predict a falloff, I need to see a decline in his underlying metrics and that hasn't happened. Witten averaged 11.0 yards per catch last year—right in line with his career mark, and his catch rate (71%) remains elite.
Ari Ingel: The only one of these guys I'm staying away from is Peyton Manning.
Manning is quite possibly the greatest quarterback in NFL history, but at age 39 and with a gimpy arm, he absolutely scares me. He only had four touchdown passes in the last four weeks of the season last year. That is not someone you spend a fourth round pick on. While I have no doubt he will start the season strong and will put up some monster numbers, one good hit and it could all unravel. The team is also moving towards a more run-heavy offense and Emanuel Sanders has come out openly to state that his numbers are going to decline. Unless he falls into the ninth round, I'm rather grabbing guys like Stafford, Tannehill, Eli Manning, Romo and Bradford.
One note on Witten, while he has certainly slowed down, Romo still looks his way often. Dallas also has a monster offensive line so he is not needed as a blocker like some teams need their tight ends. As long as you don't reach for him, I'm fine with Witten at his current ADP of 9.07.
Chris Feery: Gore. I don't think he can elude father time much longer. Andy did a phenomenal job breaking it down, a back with his career workload and switching teams after the age of 30 has not been a good bet historically. I also have to go by the eye test, there were several instances last year where I watched Gore handle the ball and thought to myself that I was watching a back with declining skills. Could that have been a product of Kaepernick and the 49ers struggles on offense? Perhaps, but i can't shake what I saw. Short story is i think Gore can still be productive, but I'm not salivating over his upside as the Colts featured back.
Manning would be second for the obvious injury concerns and the expected reduction in attempts, but still see him finishing as a top five quarterback for 2015. Johnson and Witten should be fine, I have no concerns on either.
Matt Waldman: Zero. Zilch. Zippo. Bupkis.
Gore is healthy, savvy, and played in an offense where he was he engine of the 49ers scheme. I can't wait to see teams throw eight in the box against Gore with Luck and that offense in front of runner. Gore faced more defenders in the box in San Francisco last year than any runner in the league and he still compiled 255-1103-4 on a team where Anquan Boldin (at three-quarters the speed of his prime) was the best option in the passing game.
Using history with age is a nice idea and it appears compelling, but there are too many variables involved with each player for me use it as a guide. One of those variables in Andy's list is that many of these players didn't come to their new teams where the expectation for the team was for them to start.
LaDainian Tomlinson finished 16th on Hicks' list and it was Shonn Green who was the starter to begin the year. Granted, Rex Ryan Benched Greene late in the half, but many of these players listed weren't considered full-time starters. Even Allen didn't start his career in Kansas City as the lead back. It means that using that list as a guide when the expectation for most of these backs wasn't starter production isn't a fair comparison to Gore's situation:
Dunn had two 1100 yards seasons and a third 700-yard season in his thirties for the Falcons before returning to Tampa as an insurance policy for Cadillac Williams' recovery.
Eddie George was the insurance policy for early pick Julius Jones and George only started because Jones fractured his shoulder early in Week 2 and didn't return until Week 10.
Thurman Thomas had a combined 129 carries for 533 yards during his final two seasons in Buffalo before going to Miami where Lamar Smith was acquired as the starter and earned 300 carries and 1100 yards. Does this sound comparable to Gore's situation?
Using Eric Dickerson twice doesn't really make sense to me, but here we go: The first time, we've learned very clearly that Al Davis brought in Dickerson and Roger Craig to mess with Marcus Allen. By that time Dickerson had already declined in production for two straight years in Indianapolis. Those two seasons with the Colts, Dickerson tallied fewer yards on the ground (90-91) than he did in 1989 alone. Gore has had no notable decline in production. The second season mentioned, if you're going to go there, involved a 6-10 Atlanta team with Jerry Glanville as the head coach. The team was 6-10 the year before and looking to make a splash. Its' the same regime that only used Brett Favre as a circus oddity for making bets pre-game with other coaches about whether Favre could throw the ball into a certain section of the stands.
Thomas Jones was insurance for Jamaal Charles who had an 1100-yard season before Jones arrived and followed up with a 1400-yard season when Jones was there. And Jones still had over 800 yards and six touchdowns on that squad while splitting touches with Charles. I don't see where the Colts drafted a future Jamaal Charles—all apologies to Josh, "the little engine that could" Robinson.
Franco Harris was essentially an emergency signing by the Seahawks in 1984 after 1983 Pro Bowl running back Curt Warner, who ripped up the league with a 377-1774-14 rookie year from scrimmage, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 of 1984. Granted, Harris did have a 279-1007-5 rushing season the year before, but his 3.6 ypc average was the worst mark he had in five years and the second-worst during his career with the Steelers. Gore's ypc the past two seasons has been 4.4 and 4.3, respectively.
Edgerrin James was already in steep decline after moving on from the Colts to the Cardinals. James had 360-1506-13 with the Colts in 2005; 337-1159-6 with the Cards in 2006; and 324-1222-7 in 2007. But in 2008, James had 133-514-3 in 13 games with the Cards before moving onto Seattle. That's a pretty steep drop that Gore didn't have.
Steven Jackson stands out as the one player on this list comparable to Gore stats-wise. The only difference in context is that Jackson wound up on a team decimated with injuries during both seasons.
Fred Taylor started 13 games in Jacksonville and only managed 556 yards and a score before leaving for New England in 2009, where he looked good in five games (63-269-4) before sidelined with an ankle injury.
Tony Dorsett had 1204 yards and six touchdowns during his final two 25 games in Dallas (only starting 18 of those games) before posting 181-703-5 in Denver. I'd think that exceeded expectations.
O.J. Simpson was damaged goods in San Francisco and the 49ers admitted that they didn't realize it until they got him.
Shaun Alexander's decline, like several of the players on this list came two years before he arrived in Washington. After a 370-1880-27 campaign in 2005, Alexander has 459-1612-11 in 2006-2007 in 23 games and his average per carry those two seasons was 3.6 and 3.5 compared to the 5.1 average he had in 2005. By the way, Alexander never dropped before 4.0 ypc before that 2006 seasons.
When I look at this list, only Jackson's stats-age-new team scenario remotely makes sense to compare to Gore. So I beg to differ with this road map. If Gore fails, using this list won't be the right reason.
Justin Howe: I don't own a single Andre Johnson share through thirtyish MFL10 drafts. And I doubt I'll pick up any this August. His average draft position is unsightly; I wouldn't roll the dice on Johnson before the eighth or ninth round.
Because it is absolutely a dice roll. Johnson is upgrading majorly at QB, but that's far from the only circumstance changing drastically in 2015.
For years, Johnson has dominated his team's target count like no other. But is he going to see anything close to that while contending with this many weapons? Give him a fair 18.5% of a projected 628 Luck targets, and you're looking at 116 targets. There are certainly number two wideouts who can maximize that count into big numbers, but a 34-year-old Johnson isn't one of them.
Johnson has been a studly WR1 for years on the heels of catching everything thrown his way and posting gaudy reception totals. His career catch rate is great, though it's dropped off noticeably post-Matt Schaub. We're hearing about how Luck is so good that he'll make Johnson even better. But how?! Is Johnson really going to recapture the days of catching 65% of his looks this year? At 34? (He'd better, because his volume will be dropping markedly.)
Also note also that Luck's career completion rate (58.6%) is below average; feeding gobs of targets to possession types isn't really his thing.
Is he at least going to score touchdowns steadily? Well, he never really has, so I doubt that will change here. Johnson's TD failures have gone far beyond his quarterbacks—he simply hasn't been thrown to much there. From 2010-13, he drew just 0.82 red zone looks per game, well below the average for his high-volume peers. Yes, last year Johnson was targeted an obscene 26 times in the red zone and seven times inside the five. But he did little with that opportunity: those 26 red zone throws resulted in just three touchdowns, one of the league's worst ratios.
Investing heavily in Johnson means investing heavily in a high-mileage 34-year-old switching teams—becoming the number two on a very crowded offensive roster—and surviving a massive drop in volume to again post WR2 numbers. A guy who's never been a touchdown scorer and has two athletic marvels breathing down his neck. I say there's no chance; he's not even a lock to finish a top-40 wideout to me. I have him projected at 69-864-3. He should be great for the Colts, disappointing for fantasy owners.
John Mamula: I agree with Justin and I doubt that I will roster Andre Johnson on any of my re-draft teams in 2015. A fifth round ADP is ridiculous for the amount of mouths that Indianapolis has to feed. Many are expecting Johnson to produce Reggie Wayne 2012 type numbers (106 receptions, 1,355 yards, five touchdowns) this season. Andrew Luck has improved to an elite level quarterback over the past two seasons. He has done this by using all the offensive weapons on the team. In 2012, Luck would often lock onto Reggie Wayne when in trouble. Similar to what we have seen in the past with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.
Houston releasing Andre Johnson is a statement to where he is at in his career. Houston is looking to go in another direction with Cecil Shorts or Keshawn Martin as a starting wide receiver over their franchise WR, Andre Johnson. Think about this for a minute. Johnson had only one game last season with more than seven receptions or 100 yards. That is a horrible ceiling for a fifth round draft pick. I am targeting a wide receiver in the fifth round, I prefer higher upside receivers such as Jordan Matthews, Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson, or Amari Cooper.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Andy that Manning's decline in December and January of last season was precipitous and very unwelcome for his fantasy owners. However, I've been drafting him much later than the early fourth round this season and I think if you land Manning in the mid rounds and pair with another high-upside starter (like his brother Eli Manning) then Peyton Manning is a reasonable risk to take. The connection with Photos provided by Imagn Images
