Things are looking bright again - time to mortgage the house on these. Merry Christmas everyone!
Let's get to the picks!
WEEK 16 PICKS
Oakland (-5-5) vs. San Diego
I don't want to get ahead of myself here because let's face it, these Chargers very much stink. But the Raiders have proven to be only slightly better than the "same old Raiders" we've seen year-in and year-out. This feels like a couple of points too many, especially in what looks to be bad weather. Looks like a field goal game to me.
Pick: Chargers
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Washington
Interesting line here, in that we're supposed to believe that the Eagles are a slightly better team than Washington on a neutral field. I'm not sure I believe that, but this NFC East bloodbath needs to come down to one final stupid week to crown the "winner".
Pick: Eagles
Houston (-2.5) at Tennessee
No Mariota? Yeah, this line should be about a touchdown higher.
Pick: Texans
Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Baltimore
Steelers / Ravens is rarely a blowout, and Baltimore has already beaten Pittsburgh once this season. These teams tend to split their games, so predicting a Steelers victory if the smart play. But this feels a little high for such a huge rivalry game.
Pick: Ravens
New England (-3.5) at New York Jets
Pats up 3, late in the game, Jets driving downfield for the game-tying field goal or game-winning touchdown, and the turnover/touchdown combo rears its ugly head to essentially end the season. Tell me you didn't already see that vision if you're a Jets fan, and I'll call you a liar.
Pick: Patritots
Carolina (-7.5) at Atlanta
Did Carolina have their close call hiccup last week, or is it that they got exposed a little bit? I recall back to when New England went on their undefeated run back in 2007 and they blew everyone out of the water early on. But as the season went along, teams started playing them a bit closer. Nobody has come closer to beating this Panther team than the Giants did, and the Giants aren't really all that good. Makes you wonder about whether the Panthers peaked too soon heading into the playoffs. Combine that with being on the road against an Atlanta team fighting for its life, and can't you see this one staying within a touchdown? Yeah, me either.
Pick: Panthers
Miami (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis
A sound strategy I've used pretty frequently this season, THE DOLPHINS SHOULD NOT BE FAVORED AGAINST ANYBODY.
Pick: Colts
Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Dallas
If the Bills had shown ANY kind of killer instinct in the second half of the season, this would be an easy one. But while Dallas continues to fight despite losing, the Bills appear to have packed it up for the winter.
Pick: Cowboys
Kansas City (-12.5) vs. Cleveland
The Chiefs are rolling, and quickly leaving behind the notion of not blowing teams out. Ball control offense is out the window, all bets are off in KC! Doesn't hurt that the Browns are being Browns again.
Pick: Chiefs
Detroit (-8.5) vs. San Francisco
I realize the Niners are just awful in every way, but I can't shake the thought that laying more than a touchdown with Detroit is a horrid idea.
Pick: Niners
Tampa Bay (-3.5) vs. Chicago
Not going to lie - I wanted to flip a coin. Instead, I guessed.
Pick: Bears
New Orleans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
If you're watching this one, you had better be a parent of someone playing in the game.
Pick: Saints
Seattle (-13.5) vs. Saint Louis
The Seahawks are absolutely rolling (duh), but the Rams aren't a team that often gets their doors blown off. Todd Gurley alone is able to keep this one within two scores. And when Seattle wins by exactly 14, I will punch myself in the brain.
Pick: Rams
Arizona (-4.5) vs. Green Bay
Until we see how the Mathieu injury affects the Arizona defense, I'm a little hesitant to assume they won't lose a lot going forward. Green Bay hasn't wowed anyone for quite some time, but I'm a little bit concerned with the Cardinals all of a sudden.
Pick: Packers
Minnesota (-5.5) vs. New York Giants
The Giants are obviously going to be up by 4, and give up a late touchdown on the final play of the game to lose by 3. It's like a rule or something.
Pick: Giants
Denver (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Dalton-less Bengals still don't scare anyone (wait, now we're going with Andy Dalton is the difference between a good team and a championship contender? Ok got it), and the Broncos were embarrassed last week in giving up that big lead to Pittsburgh. I expect a near-perfect performance by the Denver defense this week to get them back on track. By the way, what do they do when Peyton Manning comes back and isn't as good as Osweiler...?
Pick: Broncos
BEST BETS: Texans, Ravens, Niners, Broncos
LOCK: Houston Texans
LAST WEEK
Overall: 9-6 (missed one game)
Best Bets: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 105-118 (47%)
Best Bets: 25-35 (41%)
Lock of the Week: 7-8 (46%)
POWER RANKINGS
1. Panthers 14-0 (1)
2. Cardinals 12-2 (2)
3. Patriots 12-2 (4)
4. Bengals 11-3 (5)
5. Packers 10-4 (6)
6. Seahawks 9-5 (7)
7. Steelers 9-5 (8)
8. Broncos 10-4 (3)
9. Chiefs 9-5 (9)
10. Vikings 9-5 (10)
11. Jets 9-5 (11)
12. Rams 6-8 (12)
13. Redskins 7-7 (14)
14. Texans 7-7 (18)
15. Raiders 6-8 (13)
16. Eagles 6-8 (15)
17. Bills 6-8 (16)
18. Bears 5-9 (17)
19. Giants 6-8 (19)
20. Falcons 7-7 (24)
21. Jaguars 5-9 (20)
22. Colts 6-8 (21)
23. Bucs 6-8 (23)
24. Lions 5-9 (28)
25. Saints 5-9 (22)
26. Ravens 4-10 (26)
27. Chargers 4-10 (31)
28. Dolphins 5-9 (25)
29. Cowboys 4-10 (27)
30. Browns 3-11 (29)
31. 49ers 4-10 (30)
32. Titans 3-11 (32)
