The Profit: Week 14

It's Week 14. That means there are four weeks left to get back to a respectable record for the season. There's a scene towards the middle of the classic movie Rounders, where Worm and Mikey are almost out of money and it seems bleak beyond bleak that they have enough time to make up the gap in such a short window of time. "No", Mikey says. "I've gone on runs like that before".

This won't be like that.

Let's get to the picks!

WEEK 14 PICKS

Arizona (-7.5) vs. Minnesota
Coming off an embarrassing loss last week, coupled with the short week (meaning nobody really shows up and plays well) means I think the Vikings can keep this one within a touchdown. Now I know what you're thinking: But Mike, you're like 1-75 on Thursday night games so far this year! And while that may be true, I have a first round fantasy grudge match in my office league featuring my Cardinals defense against his Adrian Peterson. And this league never allows me to fully enjoy the holiday season. So there ya go.
Pick: Vikings

Saint Louis (-1.5) vs. Detroit
How will the Lions respond to one of the most heartbreaking losses in league history (yes, I'm serious)? Well, they're the Lions. Soo...
Pick: Rams

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh
In what looks to be a high-scoring affair, the Steelers are peaking at the right time and should be able to keep this one within a field goal. I actually expect them to win the game outright.
Pick: Steelers

Tampa Bay (-3.5) vs. New Orleans
The Bucs are making some serious strides towards becoming the team in 2016 where everyone wonders where they came from. They aren't beating up on also-rans and marginal teams. They're beating legit teams, and Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are well on their way towards establishing this year's QB class. The Saints were already reeling, and now could be down Brandin Cooks? I'm out.
Pick: Bucs

Jacksonville (-0.5) vs. Indianapolis
I flipped a coin. It came out on tails.
Pick: Jaguars

Kansas City (-10.5) vs. San Diego
Maybe it's the fan in me (it is), or maybe the Chargers really ARE a bit underrated (they're not). Whatever the reason, I don't think this game gets more than a touchdown apart (it will).
Pick: Chargers

Chicago (-3.5) vs. Washington
So what would be the weirdest, wackiest thing to happen to the NFC East this week. How about, all four teams losing in spectacular fashion against teams that aren't exactly the cream of the crop? I'm telling you, this is the year of the 6-10 division winner!
Pick: Bears

Cleveland (-1.5) vs. San Francisco
Johnny didn't get named the starter just to poop the bed in a juicy matchup against one of the league's doormats. Time to prove em all wrong.
Pick: Browns

New York Jets (-7.5) vs. Tennessee
This one is a few points too many, considering the show Marcus Mariota is able to put on in any given week.
Pick: Titans

Carolina (-7.5) vs. Atlanta
The Panthers got out of last week by the skin of their butts (which doesn't make sense, since butts have kind of a lot of skin compared to the rest of your body), and if they keep playing with fire like that, eventually they'll be burned. A touchdown victory here wouldn't even cover this one, and I'm not expecting a blowout against a team fighting for its playoff life.
Pick: Falcons

Seattle (-7.5) at Baltimore
Guess what, NFL. The Seahawks found it. Clearly, all they needed to do was remove their two most dynamic offensive players, and the rest is history.
Pick: Seahawks

Philadelphia (-0.5) vs. Buffalo
So what would be the weirdest, wackiest thing to happen to the NFC East this week. How about, all four teams losing in spectacular fashion against teams that aren't exactly the cream of the crop? I'm telling you, this is the year of the 6-10 division winner!
Pick: Bills

Denver (-7.5) vs. Oakland
Weird things happen when these two get together. The Osweiler-led offense doesn't look to be the type that will just dominate teams into submission with a high-powered offense, choosing instead to win with defense and ball control. That sounds like a recipe for a 21-14 victory.
Pick: Raiders

Green Bay (-7.5) vs. Dallas
So what would be the weirdest, wackiest thing to happen to the NFC East this week. How about, all four teams losing in spectacular fashion against teams that aren't exactly the cream of the crop? I'm telling you, this is the year of the 6-10 division winner!
Pick: Packers

New England (-3.5) at Houston
Let's face it, the Patriots are simply mediocre without Gronk. Relax Pats fans, I'm KIDDING! In truth, they're well below average without him. OH MAN KIDDING AGAIN. The reality is, I always said Jason Witten was the most complete tight end of all-time. But Gronk has clearly passed him by and is THE guy. So of course it hurts without him. But this is amazing to see just how different things are without him. And they're taking on a defense that had been coming around until last week's clunker. I don't know that the Pats drop their third straight, but I'm not banking on a win by more than a field goal.
Pick: Texans

Miami (-0.5) vs. New York Giants
So what would be the weirdest, wackiest thing to happen to the NFC East this week. How about, all four teams losing in spectacular fashion against teams that aren't exactly the cream of the crop? I'm telling you, this is the year of the 6-10 division winner!
Pick: Dolphins

BEST BETS: Steelers, Bucs, Chargers, Seahawks
LOCK: Pittsburgh Steelers

LAST WEEK

Overall: 6-10
Best Bets: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1

YEAR TO DATE

Overall: 87-105 (45%)
Best Bets: 19-33 (36%)
Lock of the Week: 5-8 (38%)

POWER RANKINGS

1. Panthers 12-0 (1)
2. Cardinals 10-2 (3)
3. Broncos 10-2 (4)
4. Bengals 10-2 (5)
5. Patriots 10-2 (2)
6. Packers 8-4 (6)
7. Seahawks 7-5 (8)
8. Steelers 7-5 (9)
9. Vikings 8-4 (7)
10. Chiefs 7-5 (12)
11. Bills 6-6 (13)
12. Colts 6-6 (10)
13. Bears 5-7 (11)
14. Jets 7-5 (16)
15. Texans 6-6 (15)
16. Bucs 6-6 (21)
17. Falcons 6-6 (14)
18. Rams 4-8 (17)
19. Redskins 5-7 (18)
20. Giants 5-7 (19)
21. Raiders 5-7 (20)
22. Eagles 5-7 (29)
23. Jaguars 4-8 (22)
24. Dolphins 5-7 (28)
25. Ravens 4-8 (23)
26. Saints 4-8 (24)
27. Cowboys 4-8 (27)
28. Lions 4-8 (25)
29. 49ers 4-8 (31)
30. Chargers 3-9 (26)
31. Browns 2-10 (30)
32. Titans 3-9 (32)