We're through the first five weeks of the season. Sam Bradford hasn't gotten injured yet. The Bengals haven't lost. Andrew Luck has more interceptions than touchdowns. And I'm under .500 for the season on my picks. What a crazy year this has been!
One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...
Let's get to the picks!
WEEK 6 PICKS
Atlanta (-3.5) at New Orleans
No real basis for this one, other than the assumption that the Saints have to show up at home one of these weeks. Atlanta is riding high, and now see themselves as favorites in a divisional road game with their star player somewhat hobbled. So I guess my first sentence is sort of a lie, because I do have a basis for this after all.
Pick: Saints
Arizona (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
Way too many points for the Steelers to be getting at home, I don't care how bad Michael Vick is (or that we only have a picture of him with the Jets) or how much Pittsburgh struggled to beat the horrible disgusting terrible dumb Chargers. But no, I'm over that loss. Really.
Pick: Steelers
New York Jets (-5.5) vs. Washington
First things first, there's about a NO percent chance the Jets lose this game. But this is a weird number. Five and a half points? It's like Vegas doesn't have any idea what to do here either. The Jets don't really blow teams out, and the Redskins don't really get blown out. So let's split the difference and say we have no clue. Sounds like my article every week!
Pick: Redskins
Detroit (-3.5) vs. Chicago
I'm pretty close to the "Lions shouldn't be favored against anybody" stage of the season. They aren't getting regularly blown out of the building, but there are zero signs of life coming from these guys.
Pick: Bears
Cincinnati (-2.5) at Buffalo
So do I get back on-board the Bengals express just in time for the derailment, or do I double down on my unhealthy belief that the Bills are thisclose to being an elite team? Despite the order you're reading this in, this is actually the last game I'm doing a write-up for since it's the toughest one to pick this week. When it's 2am and the bar is closing, you take home the one you'll kick yourself over less when you get up in the morning. Ok let's be honest, I was never the one doing the choosing. But still, I think I can sleep more soundly having beer goggles for Andy Dalton than E.J. Manuel.
Pick: Bengals
Houston (-1.5) at Jacksonville
Obviously no one is a big believer in the Jags, but I also don't really see a valid reason for why the Texans are favored on the road against anybody. Arian Foster could (and obviously/hopefully WILL!) score three touchdowns Sunday, and they'd find a way to blow this one.
Pick: Jaguars
Denver (-4.5) at Cleveland
This isn't a time to get cute. Sure, the Denver offense has struggled. Badly. But the Broncos aren't just an offense. They've got one of the more dynamic defenses in the league, and that's how they're getting it done nowadays. Nobody saw this team contending in this way, to be honest. Nobody saw Angelina Jolie as a global diplomat back when she was running around wearing vials of blood and hooking up with her brother, yet here we are. Just get the job done. The Browns are not the team to try and get cute with. Just lay the points, and count your money.
Pick: Broncos
Minnesota (-3.5) vs. Kansas City
The Chiefs aren't as bad as their record indicates, and they're now going to be seen as a dog crap team without their franchise running back. Don't believe the hype. This screams "field goal game", and I'll gladly take that extra half point to push them over the top.
Pick: Chiefs
Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Miami
The Titans aren't really better than anyone, the Dolphins are well-rested coming off the bye week, and there is a new head coach to try and turn things around. I loved Miami coming into the season, but they haven't gotten out of their own way. Against the woeful Titans, I like the offense to finally get going and put one in the W column for a change.
Pick: Dolphins
Seattle (-7.5) vs. Carolina
So wait, the under-.500 team is favored by over a touchdown against the undefeated team? Yeah I know I can get a giant bag of Reese's peanut butter cups for Halloween, but I think I'll just sit here and enjoy these Werther's Originals, thank you very much. Makes no sense right? Kinda scares me. Makes me think the Reese's may be poisoned or something...
Pick: Panthers
Green Bay (-9.5) vs. San Diego
Like I said, until further notice let's go with the assumption that the Chargers really stink. They have now lost three games, one in which they allowed Michael Vick to engineer a game-winning touchdown drive, and they barely beat the hapless Lions and Browns. 2015 is quickly turning into a dud.
Pick: Packers
Baltimore (-2.5) at San Francisco
Try as they might, the Niners just can't get out of their own way. I hesitated to go with Baltimore here due to the fact that THEY CAN'T BEAT THE BROWNS AT HOME, but Harbaugh and Flacco aren't going away that quietly this season. A loss here would all but end their season, and part of me unfortunately thinks they still have some fight in them. A 3-point victory seems about right.
Pick: Ravens
New England (-7.5) at Indianapolis
So you know those ugly duckling girls who don't attract any attention in high school even though you can kinda tell they have some potential, but then they hit their stride in college? They lose 15 pounds, they find their fashion sense and ditch the plaid, find a hairdresser who can really work with them, and just become absolute smokeshows? Then they go to their high school reunion and buy the push-up-iest push-up bra they can find and pair it with the skin-tight dress so they can just rub it in everyone's faces? Just an all-out assault on the senses just to show everyone they're the boss? Well...the Patriots were never exactly an ugly duckling. But they were made to feel like one all offseason. They are about to hit up the hairdresser and the nail salon, and this game is their 10-year reunion.
Pick: Patriots
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
These NFC East divisional games always come down to a play here or a play there. Personally, I'm still unimpressed by the sudden resurgence by the Eagles, and they absolutely appear to lack any kind of killer instinct. The Giants are at LEAST as talented, and getting the points. Take it to the bank.
Pick: Giants
BEST BETS: Broncos, Dolphins, Packers, Patriots
LOCK: New England Patriots
LAST WEEK
Overall: 7-7
Best Bets: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 36-41 (46%)
Best Bets: 9-11 (45%)
Lock of the Week: 2-3 (40%)
POWER RANKINGS
1. Patriots 4-0 (1)
2. Packers 5-0 (2)
3. Bengals 5-0 (3)
4. Cardinals 4-1 (5)
5. Broncos 5-0 (6)
6. Panthers 4-0 (7)
7. Falcons 5-0 (8)
8. Seahawks 2-3 (4)
9. Jets 3-1 (9)
10. Steelers 3-2 (10)
11. Colts 3-2 (12)
12. Cowboys 2-3 (11)
13. Giants 3-2 (14)
14. Bills 3-2 (15)
15. Rams 2-3 (13)
16. Vikings 2-2 (16)
17. Eagles 2-3 (20)
18. Chargers 2-3 (17)
19. Saints 1-4 (19)
20. Dolphins 1-3 (21)
21. Bears 2-3 (26)
22. Browns 2-3 (30)
23. Ravens 1-4 (18)
24. Chiefs 1-4 (22)
25. Raiders 2-3 (23)
26. 49ers 1-4 (24)
27. Redskins 2-3 (25)
28. Lions 0-5 (27)
29. Titans 1-3 (28)
30. Texans 1-4 (29)
31. Bucs 2-3 (31)
32. Jaguars 1-4 (32)
