Like a presidential candidate with awful hair, I just won't go away.
We're back for another year of a little analysis, a little nonsense, and a lot of fun. For those new to the feature, this is where you come to make boatloads of money following my picks ATS. For those of you who have read this piece in past years, well...why in the world would you come back?!?
The first piece of the year is mostly just a season preview, with a little bit of analysis on what to expect from the 2015 season from a very high level perspective. We'll see picks against the spread, with four best bets and one "lock" each week. I'll track these throughout the season to keep myself honest. Last year, I was right around 54% on all types of picks. In other words, if you simply bet a million bucks on every game throughout the season, you'd make around a million dollars profit following me. Good luck all!
* = playoff team
AFC East
1. Patriots *
2. Dolphins *
3. Jets
4. Bills
The Pats will attempt to defend their title after an obviously tumultuous offseason. All the talk about Tom Brady and his role in the deflation of footballs ignores the fact that it probably helped the running backs more than anyone. If the Pats suddenly start fumbling all over the place, then and only then will the story become interesting. Until further notice though, they are the class of the division. The Dolphins are very close to being an excellent team, with just slight upticks in each area of play the difference between a playoff contender and a Super Bowl contender. Fantasy-wise, Lamar Miller in particular is going to be the key to winning multiple fantasy titles this year for people who did the smart thing and waited on running backs in their drafts. Buffalo and New York both find themselves in the position of having just about everything you possibly need to be a Super Bowl contender as well - except the most important piece of quarterback. I still like them both, though, and this is by far the best division in football from top-to-bottom. The Jets will be in a dog fight for a playoff spot; don't listen to the pundits who call them a bad team. If Geno Smith can return early enough, there may be time to challenge for a spot. This is not the humorous part of the article, I swear.
AFC North
1. Steelers *
2. Bengals
3. Ravens
4. Browns
Pittsburgh is almost a default division winner here, because Cincinnati can't seem to get out of its own way at times and Baltimore is much more flawed than anyone wants to admit. That's not to say the Steelers are without faults, but they can mask those with a dominant offense. Art Rooney is rolling over in his grave. Markus Wheaton is going to be the key to a lot of fantasy teams this year, by the way. The Browns are barely worth a mention.
AFC South
1. Colts *
2. Texans
3. Titans
4. Jaguars
The only question here is whether there's a bigger gap between 1 and 2, or 2 and 3. Indy added three significant weapons (Gore, Johnson, Dorsett) to an already-outstanding offense. Andrew Luck is another year more experienced, and will end the year as the biggest difference-maker there is in fantasy football. Get him at all costs. Do NOT wait on QB if you can land him. As for Houston, they've got the anti-Colts situation going on, with a tremendous defense but perhaps the worst quarterback situation in the league. Oh, and no hope for much more help. Tennessee and Jacksonville hope to have their franchise guys under center, although I'm skeptical about Bortles. Regardless, they are both more than a QB away from contention.
AFC West
1. Chargers *
2. Broncos *
3. Chiefs
4. Raiders
Ok, time for the homer in me to believe in the Chargers more than I have a right to. And technically I'm not even a homer, because while I root for the Chargers, I live in New Jersey. But no, this isn't even the humorous part of the article. This is still being serious. The Chargers have a ton of offensive firepower that is being criminally underrated. They added Melvin Gordon, get Danny Woodhead back, added Stevie Johnson, get healthy Keenan Allen back, and get the younger version of Antonio Gates now with the promotion of Ladarius Green to the starting lineup (at least for the first four games). The offensive line is improved, the secondary is very good for the first time in forever, and the only question is up front on defense. On top of that, Peyton Manning lost Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, and will be installing a new offensive scheme. The time is ripe for the Chargers to make a move. The Chiefs will be in the same boat as Cincinnati, New York, and Buffalo, in challenging for a playoff spot but ultimately coming up short. Jeremy Maclin is not a difference-maker here. The Raiders, while much-improved, are still not quite ready for primetime.
NFC East
1. Cowboys *
2. Eagles *
3. Giants
4. Redskins
This is gonna be a dogfight right til the end of the season. At the end of the day, the Cowboys are just a more stable pick to me. They lost DeMarco Murray, but I am of the belief that there is more than enough talent in that backfield to offset the loss. On top of that, they were already better than the Eagles last year and will get a few more defensive pieces this time around in a healthy Sean Lee, the addition of Greg Hardy, and a new secondary. And let's not forget that they were thisclose to beating Green Bay a year ago and setting up an NFC title matchup with Seattle. The Eagles are interesting, and fun, and exciting. But I'm just not ready to vault them up to the elite just yet. Eli Manning will helm as many of my fantasy teams as I can get him on, with the Giants adding two offensive weapons they didn't have last year in Victor Cruz and Shane Vereen, not to mention a god-awful defense that is going to allow him to throw the ball a career-high number of times. The Redskins are in Cleveland Browns territory as just a complete disaster.
NFC North
1. Packers *
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears
The Packers lost Jordy Nelson, which will hurt Jordy Nelson fantasy owners but otherwise they shouldn't miss a beat. Nelson is very good, but also made better by Aaron Rodgers being his quarterback. Let's see how well the replacements step in and magically become superstars this season too. The Vikings offense should be leaps and bounds better than it was a year ago, and Teddy Bridgewater is the long-term answer there for sure. They've also got a stable of excellent receivers, a tremendous running game, and unfortunately play in a tough conference for the playoff bubble teams. They'll probably be the best team NOT in the postseason this year. Detroit is not a great team in my book, and Matt Stafford doesn't look like he'll ever fulfill my expectations of becoming the "best-fantasy-worst-real-quarterback" in football history (congrats Michael Vick, your status is safe). The Bears are in danger of being the worst unit in the history of the franchise, and John Fox doesn't make things better.
NFC South
1. Bucs *
2. Panthers
3. Saints
4. Falcons
Ugh. If the AFC East is football's best divsion from top to bottom, then this one is clearly the worst. The fact that I have Tampa atop the division speaks volumes about how bad this group is. I don't actually think the Bucs are any good. They're pretty low in my power rankings listed below. I just have a tough time keeping the status quo here and assuming nobody will miss a beat from a year ago. Carolina will win a few 4-2 games. The Saints lost Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and Pierre Thomas from a passing game that was already beginning to show signs of decline. The Falcons have the worst offensive line in the history of the NFL. So yeah, I'm taking the Bucs just on the tiny chance that they actually pull this off so I can brag about it at the end of the year. If it doesn't work out, well nobody will remember anyway. At least I'm being honest.
NFC West
1. Seahawks *
2. Cardinals *
3. Rams
4. Niners
The top two teams in this division are as good a top two as you'll find around the league. It's a couple of dynamite defenses led by smart veteran quarterbacks. It's that Seattle running game that pushes it over the top. Well, that and the fact that they were an eyelash away from being champs last season and THEN added one of the most prolific receivers in the league today. They are the clear team to beat. Arizona will probably be the best second-place team in the entire league, so long as Carson Palmer remains upright. If he goes down, all bets are off. The Rams are as good defensively as they are bad offensively - not a bad thing for a playoff team, but over the course of 16 weeks, it just means they are destined for 8-8. The Niners join the Redskins and Bears as some of the worst collection of talent in the entire league. The 1980s is rolling over in its grave.
PLAYOFFS
AFC Championship
Indianapolis over New England
NFC Championship
Seattle over Dallas
Super Bowl
Seattle over Indianapolis
Now let's get to the picks...!
WEEK 1 PICKS
New England (-7.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Patriots
Green Bay (-6.5) at Chicago
Pick: Packers
Seattle (-4.5) at Saint Louis
Pick: Rams
New York Jets (-3.5) vs. Cleveland
Pick: Jets
Carolina (-3.5) at Jacksonville
Pick: Jaguars
Houston (-1.5) vs. Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs
Miami (-3.5) at Washington
Pick: Dolphins
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Buffalo
Pick: Colts
Arizona (-2.5) vs. New Orleans
Pick: Cardinals
San Diego (-3.5) vs. Detroit
Pick: Lions
Denver (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Pick: Ravens
Tampa Bay (-3.5) vs. Tennessee
Pick: Titans
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Oakland
Pick: Raiders
Dallas (-5.5) vs. New York Giants
Pick: Giants
Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta
Pick: Eagles
Minnesota (-2.5) at San Francisco
Pick: Vikings
BEST BETS: Chiefs, Dolphins, Colts, Eagles
LOCK: Indianapolis Colts
LAST WEEK
Overall: 0-0
Best Bets: 0-0
Lock of the Week: 0-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 0-0 (-%)
Best Bets: 0-0 (-%)
Lock of the Week: 0-0 (-%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Patriots 0-0
2. Seahawks 0-0
3. Cowboys 0-0
4. Packers 0-0
5. Colts 0-0
6. Cardinals 0-0
7. Eagles 0-0
8. Broncos 0-0
9. Dolphins 0-0
10. Chargers 0-0
11. Bengals 0-0
12. Bills 0-0
13. Steelers 0-0
14. Panthers 0-0
15. Ravens 0-0
16. Lions 0-0
17. Vikings 0-0
18. Chiefs 0-0
19. Saints 0-0
20. Jets 0-0
21. Rams 0-0
22. Texans 0-0
23. Giants 0-0
24. Raiders 0-0
25. Falcons 0-0
26. 49ers 0-0
27. Bears 0-0
28. Bucs 0-0
29. Browns 0-0
30. Titans 0-0
31. Jaguars 0-0
32. Redskins 0-0
