In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces is offering a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $27.50 price point with maximum entrants of 410. They also have a $4,000 guaranteed tournament at the $55 price point with a maximum of 80 entries. At the $11 price point they have a $4,000 guaranteed tournament with a maximum of 410 entries.
TOP STACK
Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,400)
Don’t be scared away from the previous game where Roethlisberger had the worst game of the season against Cincinnati. That was largely game script driven as both Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert both were injured in the first half which allowed the Steelers to be able to run the ball for most of the game. It also didn’t help that Antonio Brown was tackled at the one yard line which would have salvaged his day. With Deangelo Williams being injured for this game, the Steelers are going to have to win this game through the air as Cincinnati has one of the top run defenses in the NFL.
VALUE STACKS
Kansas City Chiefs – QB Alex Smith ($5,850) and WR Jeremy Maclin ($4,900)
The Kansas City duo has been underpriced all season, and they’re going up against a Houston defense that is allowing less than 100 yards per game. Maclin over the last six games has scored six touchdowns and had five or more receptions in each of those games. He has become the focal point of the offense, and provides some nice salary relief this week. Alex Smith’s value is entirely dependent on his running ability so while he is not a recommended play this week for cash games, he has run for 50+ yards in each of his last two games.
Cincinnati Benagls – QB A.J. McCarron ($5,750) and WR A.J. Green ($5,650)
Pittsburgh is allowing 279 yards passing yards per game, which is the third most in the NFL this season. This game is scheduled to be the highest game of the day, and while McCarron does not have a lot of NFL experience, he did come against Pittsburgh when Andy Dalton went down with injury and threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns. A.J. Green had no drop-off in production when the McCarron took over as he had six receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers’ defense. While the two have since cooled off their price has also decreased which presents a tremendous opportunity to save some salary and potentially double stack this with Roethlisberger/Brown in the hope that this game turns into a shootout.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 17.
Quarterback – Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks ($7,150)
Russell Wilson is likely going to be one of the highest owned quarterback and for good reason. Over the second half of the season he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL week in and week out. However, with Marshawn Lynch scheduled to return from injury this week, the offense is likely to shift back to the traditional Darrell Bevell Seattle offense that we have been accustomed to seeing where Wilson is a great real-life quarterback but doesn’t throw for enough volume in order to be a top end fantasy option. Complicating matters is that the wind chill is expected to get as cold as -10 degrees in Minnesota this week and don’t be fooled when you hear that Russell Wilson went to Wisconsin so he should be used to the cold. Russell Wilson spent six months in the state of Wisconsin, and has not played a December or January cold game in his career.
Running Back – Fitzgerald Toussaint Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,100)
Fitzgerald Toussaint is going to be one of the highest owned players on this slates due to the offense that he is in and with the injury to Deangelo Williams this week. Be careful here as Toussaint is not a talented running back averaging 2.2 yards per carry in his career. The risk here is that if Toussaint struggles early against a very good Cincinnati run defense, Pittsburgh will have no problem going with Jordan Todman in an attempt to get the running game going.
Wide Receiver – Martavis Bryant Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,750)
When a quarterback publically calls you out as a wide receiver, typically it is not a good situation and the stats for Bryant are showing that he has completely lost Ben Roethlisberger’s trust as he has just six targets over the last two weeks. There will be people who will gravitate towards starting Bryant as he can be had at a severe discount this week after two poor performances, but we think that whatever happened is going to take longer than just the two weeks to correct. This is another situation where the player is going to be owned more because of the name rather than the recent production which has us avoiding him this week.
Tight End – Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals ($5,100)
Tyler Eifert is another guy who is going to be owned solely because of the name and people not looking at recent production. Last week in his first full game with A.J. McCarron he had only four targets and while he did score a touchdown, if he is only going to get four targets at $5,100 there are better options to get. We don’t’ believe he is 100% healthy since he returned from injury combined with still getting acclimated with a new quarterback we recommending going with another option such as Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert.
Defense and Special Teams – Any Defense besides Seattle or Kansas City
It seems like every week we are recommending either Seattle or Kansas City defense, as the price difference between the top options and the punt options are minimal on a weekly basis. Seattle and Kansas City are by far the two best defenses on this slate and are projected to allow the least amount of points. While we prefer Seattle over Kansas City as Teddy Bridgewater may have a difficult time holding onto the ball due to having some of the smallest hands in the league in the cold weather.
HIGHEST OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks ($7,150)
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,000)
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers ($6,550)
Running Back
Fitzgerald Toussaint, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,100)
Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks ($5,100)
Eddy Lacy Green Bay Packers ($4,600)
Wide Receiver
Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks ($5,500)
Jeremy Maclin Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900)
Antonio Brown Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,400)
Tight End
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers ($4,900)
Zach Ertz Philadelphia Eagles ($4,550)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($5,200)
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,100)
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300)
Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,850)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins Washington Redskins ($6,950)
Running Back
Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks ($5,100)
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green Cincinnati Bengals ($5,650)
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings ($4,300)
Defense and Special Team
Green Bay Packers ($2,600)
