In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is going to be held in Newport Beach, California. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $30,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,510. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,020 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACKs
Houston Texans – QB Brian Hoyer($5,700) and WR Deandre Hopkins ($6,200)
New Orleans has the worst defense in the NFL, and even though they have changed defensive coordinators coming off the bye week we don’t anticipate their defense improving as it will take time. Brian Hoyer this year has been more than respectable this season and most of that has to do with Hopkins and his development this season. Hopkins has had double digit targets in every game this season, and even though his recent production has fallen off a little bit outside of last week, he is in a great position to have a huge game that we saw earlier this year.
Arizona Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer 6,950) and WR Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600)
San Francisco secondary is one of the worst in football and there seems to be a fountain of youth in Arizona as the two veterans Palmer and Fitzgerald are having seasons that remind us of their prime seasons. Over the last three weeks Larry Fitzgerald has double digit targets, which is what you’re looking for in a receiver who is in the mid $5,000 range. The over under is projecting the Cardinals to score 28 points this week which is one of the highest on the slate.
VALUE STACKS
New York Jets – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,000) and WR Brandon Marshall ($5,250)
There may not be a more emotional player in the NFL than Brandon Marshall. This game is going to mean a lot to him as he is still talking about his tumultuous exit in Miami and the Jets need to win this game in order to stay above .500. Brandon Marshall torched the Dolphins earlier this year with seven receptions for 128 yards in week four and he has scored a touchdown in three straight games. This should be a great opportunity for Marshall and it is a stack that is going to be under-owned.
Cleveland Browns – QB Josh McCown ($5,400) and TE Gary Barnidge ($4,900)
Gary Barnidge is benefitting from Johnny Manziel’s mishaps as he gets his trusted friend back in Josh McCown. Every game this season Barnidge has had six or more targets in which McCown started and finished. He is the only tight end in the NFL to have that many targets as even Rob Gronkowski has had a few games under six targets. Baltimore has been tough against the tight ends, but Barnidge had a great game against them last time out and Cleveland will line him up out wide in order to create matchup problems.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Tom Brady New England Patriots ($7,350)
It is hard to recommend fading Brady as he is the best quarterback in th NFL right now. The issue is that Denver may have one of the best secondaries that we have seen in a long time. When Bradley Roby is your number three corner when he would be a number one on a lot of teams it just speaks to how great they are. The other issue is that New England isn’t going to need to score a significant amount of points to win this game as it should be a relatively low scoring game with a total of 43.5 which is one of the lowest on the slate.
Running Back – Javorious Allen Baltimore Ravens ($4,750)
Cleveland has the worst run defense in the NFL, which makes it so that every running back has to be in consideration on a weekly basis. Javorious Allen steps in for the injured Justin Forsett after he broke his arm last week. Javorious is not the most talented running back as he only averaged 5.4 yards per carry in college and is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry in the NFL. If Joe Flacco was starting this week it would provide a great sense of comfort in knowing that the Browns will have to respect the passing game and therefore it will open up opportunities for Allen, but the problem is that Flacco is also out for the season. The Ravens are going to be starting Matt Schaub who has not been an average quarterback in several years, which is going to allow the Browns to put an emphasis on stopping the run game this week. We are recommending avoiding Allen in both your cash games and your GPP’s this week.
Wide Receiver – Deandre Hopkins Houston Texans ($6,500)
There comes a point where the ownership percentage gets ridiculous and we are at that point with Hopkins. We fully expect him to be the highest owned player on this slate, and with the matchup it is very easy to understand why as the Saints can’t stop anyone. The problem is that you aren’t differentiating yourself if you start Hopkins. Going with a player who has the same upside such as Julio Jones or Odell Beckham is a much better GPP play as if they outperform Hopkins you will have a significant edge on the rest of the field.
Tight End – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600)
Most weeks, Travis Kelce is a great GPP play, as he has the upside to differentiate himself from other tight ends at his price range. The issue this week is that the Buffalo Bills are the 7th best at covering the tight end position which makes it a very difficult matchup for Kelce. With very few other options to throw to in this offense, the Bills are going to put an increased emphasis on stopping the run and if Charcandrick West is out that is one additional weapon that the Bills do not have to focus on as much this week. Kelce will have some ownership due to his price, but we suggest looking elsewhere this week.
Defense and Special Teams – Arizona Cardinals ($3,200)
Arizona will be one of the highest owned defenses this week due to the 49ers once again starting Blaine Gabbert. There is a perception that Blaine Gabbert is the worst quarterback in the NFL, but in the two games this season Gabbert looks like he has made significant improvements to his game since we saw him back in Jacksonville. He threw for 262 yards last week against a very good Seattle defense which allows the second least amount of passing yardages to quarterbacks. At $3,200 and with the ownership as high as it is going to be, we are recommending to look at cheaper options this week.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer Houston Texans ($5,700)
Eli Manning, New York Giants ($6,500)
Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals ($6,950)
Running Back
Thomas Rawls Seattle Seahawks ($4,650)
T.J. Yeldon Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,800)
Doug Martin Dallas Cowboys($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Deandre Hopkins Houston Texans ($6,500)
Odell Beckham Jr New York Giants ($6,200)
Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals ($5,600)
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns ($4,900)
Delanie WalkerTennessee Titans ($4,600)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,700)
Defense and Special Team
Arizona Cardinals ($3,200)
Cleveland Browns ($2,500)
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins Washington Redskins ($6,000)
Josh McCown Cleveland Browns ($5,400)
Drew Brees New Orleans Saints ($7,400)
Running Back
Spencer Ware Kansas City Chiefs ($4,350)
Shaun Draughn San Francisco 49ers ($3,900)
Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($6,150)
Wide Receiver
Demaryius Thomas Denver Broncos ($5,300)
Brandon Marshall New York Jets ($5,250)
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders ($4,900)
Tight End
Antonio Gates San Diego Chargers ($4,750)
Rob Gronkowski New England Patriots ($5,850)
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals ($5,100)
Defense and Special Teams
New England Patriots ($3,000)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers($2,650)
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,850)
