This article takes a look at players from each of the positions in your starting lineup who have interesting matchups. Not all players covered are your classic sleepers who might outperform expectations. Some are nominal starters with tricky matchups or players who might be starters in larger leagues, but deep sleepers in smaller leagues. Realizing that leagues and roster sizes vary wildly; your mileage could vary, too.
Quarterbacks
Colin Kaepernick, SF at DAL
In most leagues, Kaepernick was valued near the bottom of the QB1s with an ADP ranging from QB10 to QB13. Those of you who drafted him, probably hedged your bet with a higher-than-normal pick for your QB2 thereby creating a potential Week 1 dilemma with your starting lineup. Don’t fret. Stick with your gut and Kaepernick against a Cowboy defense wrought by free agency and injuries. Meanwhile, Kaepernick has more weapons at his disposal than ever with a healthy Michael Crabtree and the addition of Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd this offseason. The 49er defense is without ILB Navorro Bowman, NT Glenn Dorsey and OLB Aldon Smith to start the season. Expect a full game out of Kaepernick with a strong matchup making him a mid-QB1 play at worst.
Carson Palmer, ARI vs. SD
Palmer is one of the favorite late round sleeper quarterbacks from the draft season. We’ve all heard about their improved offensive line, the expected emergence of Michael Floyd as a possible WR1 next to Larry Fitzgerald, the hype around Andre Ellington, not to mention the meteoric rise of rookie John Brown as their third receiver and Bruce Arians’ next T.Y. Hilton. Seemingly, the pieces are coming together for Palmer. He starts the season at home against a Charger defense that ranked 29th in passing yards allowed and in the bottom for points allowed to QBs. With an ADP around QB18, Palmer is well outside the starting parameters for most leagues, but he offers nice upside this week if you’re worried about your QB1’s matchup out of the gate. For 2-QB leagues, Palmer tops the list of QB2s with QB1 upside.
Geno Smith, NYJ vs. Oak
Somewhere, Chase Stuart (our staff’s unabashed Jets fan) is grinning, knowing that Geno Smith is making the list of Week 1 sleeper QBs. Entering the season with an ADP of QB28, Smith opens the season at home against a piecemeal Raiders defense put together with cheap veteran free agents and returning only four starters. This is a defense that finished 27th in pass defense and fourth in points allowed to QBs last year. Smith faced the Raiders in Week 14 last year and produced a healthy 219 yards, 1 TD (1 INT) and 50 yards rushing with another TD. Not quality QB1 numbers, mind you, but a quality start for 12- and 14-team league standards nonetheless. Smith makes for an excellent QB2 start for those in leagues starting two.
Shaun Hill, STL vs. Min
Undrafted in most leagues, Hill is among those priority waiver claims for those of you able to make them before Week 1. Hill takes over for the injured Sam Bradford, opens the season at home and faces a Vikings’ defense that finished last in the league last year in fantasy points allowed, passing TDs and second to last in yards allowed. They also lost their best pass rusher (Jared Allen) to free agency. The Rams added to their offensive line, brought in a now healthy Kenny Britt as their WR1 and have the pieces in place for Hill to start the season well.
Running Backs
Fred Jackson, Buf at CHI
Every year Fred Jackson is undervalued on draft day. Always overlooked for other younger backs with more upside, Jackson is pegged as that safe RB3/flex option you can grab later in the draft while you fill up on stud WRs and maybe even one of the elite tight ends. Yet every year Jackson is among the top 20 running backs a few weeks into the season. This year should be no exception with an opening day matchup against a Bears defense that was abysmal last season. Sure, they retooled and added some players during the offseason to shore up their holes, but until we’ve seen it on the field I’ll go on the side of the venerable Mr. Jackson, who remains the team’s choice at the goal line and on third down.
Chris Johnson, NYJ vs. Oak
Johnson gets a fresh start this year with a new team, but the sharks just aren’t biting on him with an ADP hanging at RB25, just outside the realm of players expected to start every week. Johnson is listed as the co-starter along with Chris Ivory, so there’s reason to be concerned that his upside is capped by the presence of the physical, hard running Ivory. Against the Raiders, both players could be productive, but given the choice, I’ll go with the guy with the most upside, even if he has more risk. Johnson can still reel off a 50 yard touchdown at any time and if you believe him, he’s pegged for a major role on his new team. The Jets defense is still pretty good and the Raiders are starting a rookie QB. I’ll go with Johnson as a decent RB2 value in this scenario expecting about 20 or so carries and a few opportunities in the passing game.
Steven Jackson, ATL vs. NO
Jackson wasn’t high on anyone’s list of players they just had to have on draft day. Buoyed by high expectations in his first season with the Falcons last year, Jackson started hot with 122 yards against this Saints in the opener before going down for multiples weeks. It’s a big reason why his ADP lingered around RB31 with yet another soft tissue injury that sidelined him the entire preseason. But he appears to be healthy and ready to go now and that’s all I need to know. When healthy, Jackson has been very productive throughout his career. He combined for 514 yards and 6 TDs in the second half of last season while adding 21 catches. In Week 12 last year, he produced 79 yards and a TD against the Saints. The motto I’ll use with Jackson is this – use him while you can, otherwise, why draft him in the first place.
Mark Ingram, NO at ATL
Normally, I’d slot Pierre Thomas in here as a low RB2/RB3/flex in PPR formats depending on league size in this favorable matchup. Thomas did roll up 130 yards (and 5 catches) against them in Week 12 although he only totaled 59 yards and four catches in last year’s opener. Darren Sproles is gone and Thomas expects to pick up some of those receiving numbers, and he should continue to play a featured role in the passing game. This space is for Ingram, though. Chalked up as a first round bust with an ADP of RB44, Ingram averaged 5.9 YPC in the second half of the season and he continued to look good during the preseason, running angry to the tune of 7.1 YPC on 22 attempts with 1 TD. The Falcons defense allowed the third most rushing yards to RBs last year and they’ve lost several key defensive players during the preseason to injuries that they were counting on to play significant roles. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” is how the saying goes. Fool me four times? I’ll bite. Ingram looks like a strong option as a RB3/flex or RB2 in deeper leagues in the opener.
Stevan Ridley, NE at MIA
Ridley is a polarizing figure in the RB ranks thanks to his much celebrated fumbling problems. There is no guarantee he’ll start for Bill Belichick or even play a heavy role in the opener. But he is without question the team’s best runner and he’s among the better backs in the league in the red zone. Shane Vereen may very well be featured in more packages and formations, but Ridley has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games against the Dolphins. Maybe it’s the season opener that has me feeling optimistic with Ridley (and Ingram), but I have to think Belichick will continue to give him every chance to right his wrongs because the Patriots are a better football team when Ridley is rolling.
Bernard Pierce, BAL vs. Cin
Pierce gets his much anticipated start with Ray Rice serving a 2-game suspension. Pierce is more than capable, but just like Rice, he also struggled badly last year while playing behind a poor offensive line with a shoulder injury. He looks healthy now, but the Bengals are a tough matchup for any running back. Lorenzo Taliaferro or Justin Forsett could get some touches as well, but Pierce projects as a featured back this week giving him solid RB2 potential in all scoring formats.
Wide Receivers
Eric Decker, NYJ vs. Oak
No longer a strong WR2 as a NY Jet, Decker’s ADP fell into the mid-30s this offseason allowing opportunistic owners to nab him as a WR4 in some cases. The Raiders were among the top five matchups for opposing receivers last year, although they retooled their secondary signing both corners away from their rivals across the bay. Installed as the Jets’ No. 1 receiver, Decker will have his hands full against the teams with top notch corners in his division, but probably not against the Raiders. Decker made a good first impression in his brief preseason appearance with 3-34-1 working with Geno Smith.
Anquan Boldin, SF at Dal
Boldin’s ADP fell way down into the 60s this offseason. Michael Crabtree looks healthy and ready for a big rebound. Steve Johnson adds an excellent presence in the slot and in the red zone. Vernon Davis isn’t going anywhere and Boldin is closing in on 34 years of age, but they’re playing the Cowboys – a defense that ranked 30th against the pass last year, lost Demarcus Ware to free agency, Sean Lee to injury and Orlando Scandrick to suspension, among others. Boldin has scored or finished with 100 yards or more in every season opener going back to 2009. I’ll take the old bully all day long.
Rueben Randle, NYG at Det
While the Giants offense has been a hot mess in the preseason, Randle does still look like their best red zone target and the Lions are an underwhelming bunch when it comes to their secondary. Reshean Mathis and Darrius Slay will need some help, but Randle looks like the best scoring threat in the Giants passing game and a nice WR3/WR4 upside play on Monday Night.
Justin Hunter, Ten at KC
The Chiefs secondary looks vulnerable to me. I like the Titans passing game in this matchup and Hunter has been on fire throughout the offseason. He might not be the most consistent player, but he gives you enormous play making ability. The Titans offense might be surprisingly productive as long as Jake Locker is healthy. Kendall Wright should lead the team in targets, but I’ll bet on Hunter to lead the team in yards and TDs.
Markus Wheaton, PIT vs. Cle
The Browns’ shutdown corner Joe Haden is expected to follow Antonio Brown around for much of this game leaving Wheaton paired off with a combination of rookie Justin Gilbert and Buster Skrine. Emmanuel Sanders produced 6-52-1 against the Browns in Week 12 last year, but he later came up small with 2-26-0 in Week 17. Wheaton’s speed and deep play ability make him a high upside play any given week, but Roethlisberger hasn’t put up big numbers in his last three games against the Browns making him a serious boom or bust pick.
Brandin Cooks, NO at ATL
Cooks is one of the preseason darlings and the subject of much hype heading into the season. He's lightning quick, compact and strong for his stature as well as mature, smart and articulate. The latter characteristics might not matter as much on the field, but they do endear him to Drew Brees and the coaching staff and his ability to pick up the playbook and handle a number of things thrown at him has made a big difference in his ability to hit the ground running in Week 1 with a fairly signficant role. Further clearing the path for Cooks to play significant steps is that Kenny Still (quadriceps) has been limited in practice this week. Cooks might very well produce from day 1, but like others on this list, we won't have the benefit of watching in regular season action before making that critical lineup decision. Based on his skills, the offense, Brees' confidence in him and Stills not being 100%, he's worth the risk.
Cody Latimer, DEN vs. Ind
With Wes Welker serving a four game suspension, both Emmanuel Sanders and Latimer will play increased roles. There's also Andre Caldwell, who filled in for Welker late last season when he missed a few games following a concussion. In our view, Latimer is the one with the most upside with Welker out. Sanders already has a significant role in the offense, while Latimer will likely see the biggest increase in playing time. The coaches were already planning to utilize him in the red zone and our own Cecil Lammey has provided numerous glowing reports of Latimer throughout the offseason. It will take a leap of faith to insert Latimer into your lineup this week, but the upside is undeniable given his increased role in a Peyton Manning-led offense. He's still a bit of a boom or bust play, but the risk is likely worth it.
Kenny Britt and/or Brian Quick, STL vs. Min
The Vikings had one of the worst secondaries in the league last year allowing 37 passing TDs and the second most points to opposing WRs. The Rams might have lost Sam Bradford, but Shaun Hill is a capable, if not underwhelming starting quarterback. The receiver combination of Britt and Quick is enough to make you want to pinch yourself in the mirror. Is it real or is it Memorex? Britt is healthy and poised for a rebound while Quick’s progress going into his third year is still somewhat hard to buy. If these guys are not facades, then we should see something out of them in the opener. The main issue I have with the Rams is they rotate their receivers frequently, utilize their tight ends and run the ball heavily. I’d give Britt or Quick a shot in deeper leagues or as a 2nd flex option in 12 or 14 team leagues, but not in standard 12 team leagues. For those, I want to see it to believe it.
Andrew Hawkins, Cle at PIT
I’m a fan of Hawkins in PPR leagues because Brian Hoyer will need a reliable set of hands in the short and intermediate passing game beyond Jordan Cameron. Hawkins has a lot of nice qualities for a possession receiver and I have no trust in Miles Austin at all. Give him a shot as a flex (WR4/WR5) in PPR leagues with 12 teams or larger.
Mohamed Sanu, Cin at Bal
With Marvin Jones on the shelf, Sanu is poised to play a larger role in the Bengals offense. The Ravens will leave Sanu in single coverage as they focus on stopping their running backs and A.J. Green. He’s also known to be involved in trick plays as a passer, runner or receiver. Sanu looked good in the preseason subbing for Jones and he had a nice offseason overall. He could be a reliable possession receiver opposite Green, only arriving a year or two later than originally hoped.
Rod Streator, Oak at NYJ
The Jets secondary is a mess. I like James Jones, but I think Rod Streator is the sneaky choice to be the top receiver on the team this year.
Marqise Lee / Allen Hurns, Jac at Phi
The Eagles allowed the most points to opposing receivers last year and the Jaguars added a trio of rookie receivers to pair with Cecil Shorts to boost their passing game. Chad Henne hasn’t played poorly during the preseason but the play of Blake Bortles has everyone anticipating his arrival. Cecil Shorts missed the preseason with a hamstring. Lee scored a pair of touchdowns but was inconsistent overall. He’ll start opposite Shorts, while Hurns was the team’s best receiver throughout. He is familiar with JeddFisch’s offense having played under him at Miami in college and he has consistently gotten open and made plays while playing with the 1s and 2s. Both players are serious sleepers for Week 1, but as Sigmund Bloom wisely tells us on The Audible – believe what your eyes are telling you. Hurns looks legit, but he’ll open as the No. 3 receiver this week. Lee is very talented and has big play potential. I’d give Lee a look as a flex in deep leagues or as a second flex (WR5) in 12-team leagues.
Tight Ends
Heath Miller, PIT vs. Cle
I’m sure you’ve heard the drum beats for Miller during the preseason as a good target on draft day if you wait on tight ends. Coming off a torn ACL late the 2012 season, Miller wasn’t himself last year. Jerricho Cotchery became Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target in the red zone. Now, Miller is healthy, Cotchery is gone and the Steelers plan to play even more no-huddle this year. That would also benefit Miller as he has developed a great rapport with Roethlisberger over the years. Miller has both PPR and TD appeal with Joe Haden likely shadowing Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton still developing consistency and his own rapport with Roethlisberger.
Zach Ertz, PHI vs. Jac
Consider me one of the buyers in this stock during draft season. When I couldn’t grab an elite tight end, I waited to grab Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz and/or Travis Kelcelike so many of you out there. With a year under his belt and a strong offseason, Ertz is a breakout candidate and one that Chip Kelly is expected to heavily feature not only in the red zone but all over the field. He could get off to a fast start against the a young and improving Jaguars defense that allowed the third most points to opposing tight ends last year while allowing the 7thmost passing yards. Beyond LeSean McCoy, Ertz projects to be the Eagles’ second most targeted player in the red zone with his size, great hands and ability to get open in small spaces.
Antonio Gates, SD vs. Ari
Gates fell off the ADP radar this year all the way to TE15 as he enters the season at the ripe age of 34, but are you really going to bet against this first ballot Hall of Famer? His lowest career finish was TE12 in 2012 and he rebounded to finish as TE9 last year. Did Tony Gonzalez fall off a cliff despite extending his career well beyond the norm? Gates might be old, but he has missed only 1 game in the last two years. No longer as agile or as fast as he was in his prime, count me among those who won’t buy into Ladarius Green until I see more consistency and/or Gates miss several weeks due to injury (or retire). Simply put, Gates is still a better player. He’s more reliable, consistent and he still has Philip River’s trust. Don’t forget the Cardinals also allowed far more points to TEs last year than any other defense (4 fantasy points per game more!) and that was with Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and Tyrann Mathieu on the field.
Garrett Graham, HOU vs. Was
The Ryan Fitzpatrick effect. Remember Delanie Walker peppering opponents with uncanny PPR numbers in the second half of last season? You can thank Ryan Fitzpatrick for that. Fitzpatrick loves the short passing game and Bill O’Brien loves his tight ends. Graham will be his featured move tight end and by extension one of Fitzpatrick’s favorite targets with teams focused on stopping Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, not to mention DeAndre Hopkins. In deeper leagues, or those with multiple flexes, Graham is a decent PPR play out of the gate against a Redskin defense that has struggled against the pass for years.
Defense/Special Teams
NY JETS vs. Oakland
The Raiders decided to go with Derek Carr as their starter in Week 1, making this his first NFL start on the opposite side of the country with a 1 pm EST start. The Raiders have question marks everywhere and especially along their offensive line. The circumstances are present for the Jets to possibly be the top scoring defense this week.
DETROIT vs. NY Giants
The Giants offense is a mess coming out of the preseason. Their line continues to struggle. Eli still looks awful and his receivers still don’t seem to be on the same page despite all of the offseason hype about quicker reads, getting rid of the ball and improving his completion percentage. Making matters worse, their top pick WR Odell Beckham Jr. will miss another week or two. It looks like a rocky start for the G-men. The Lions defensive line has a big mismatch here, but their secondary remains highly suspect. At home on Monday Night Football, the Lions could be another top scoring defense this week.
PITTSBURGH vs. Cleveland
This game should give us a good read on the Steelers’ run defense against a Browns team that has openly embraced wanting to run the ball more. Their offense looks pretty bad on the surface with Josh Gordon suspended and a sketchy group of receivers, but they have a good line with talent and depth in the backfield. Brian Hoyer is the wild card. I’ll go with the Steelers and the home field advantage, and take a leap of faith in Dick LeBeau because I think Ryan Shazier, Stephon Tuitt and Michael Mitchell are all upgrades at their positions.
HOUSTON vs. Washington
This will be a stiff test for Robert Griffin III and the Redskins’ offense on the road for their opener after a underwhelming preseason. An already solid Texans defense returns LB Brian Cushing from injury and added Jadeveon Clowney in the draft. Redskins have the makings of an explosive offense and the Texans have been burned by big plays all too frequently last year.
PHILADELPHIA vs. Jacksonville
The Jaguars young line is starting to come together, but they allowed the 2nd most sacks last year and the Eagles defense goes into year two of the Chip Kelly era with a home game against a young, Chad Henne-led offense. Advantage Philadelphia.
CHICAGO vs. Buffalo
EJ Manuel and the Bills have struggled throughout the preseason spurring the team to sign Kyle Orton to a $5 million contract as an insurance policy if the Manuel show doesn’t end well. The Bills can run the ball, though, and the Bears had an atrocious run defense last year. While they’ve invested wisely to shore things up, the Bills should be able to run the ball. That said, it’s a road game for E.J. Manuel and things could get mighty interesting with Jared Allen giving chase.
