This week we discuss the following:
- Some running back situations: Texans, Bengals, Vikings
- Saints without Cooks
- Josh Gordon
- RBs on the rise
- Patriots re-sign Blount
- WR-CB matchups
Some running back situations: Texans, Bengals, Vikings
Arian Foster and Giovani Bernard are on track to return this week after a bit of time off. In their absence, their younger teammates may have earned more of a regular role in the rotation than they were getting at the beginning of the season.
Will Alfred Blue continue to get touches that cut into Arian Foster's workload?
Jeff Pasquino: Foster needs a break, and Houston is nearly eliminated from the postseason contention anyway. The Texans would be wise to work Blue in with Foster to both give Foster some plays off and also see what Blue offers for 2015. Blue is a sixth-round rookie while Foster is a six-million-dollar running back with an injury history who turns 29 next August. Is it possible that the Texans look towards a committee or diminishing Foster's role next year, or even try and save the $6 million and spend it elsewhere next year? Who knows right now, but that could become more of a possibility if Blue can show that he can handle a lead back workload. I think Houston splits time between Blue and Foster the rest of the way in a preview of how their 2015 backfield might be handled.
Matt Waldman: I differ with Jeff on Foster. Houston is 5-5 and I don't think they brought in Mallett as a starter because they're giving up on the season. Houston gave Mallett enough time to absorb the offense, get a feel for the team, and get some work in. He's also a better big-play threat than Ryan Fitzgerald could ever provide under center.
Mallett's arm and deep accuracy versus Fitzgerald's is almost as wide of a comparison as Foster's second-level vision and agility versus Alfred Blue's. Nothing wrong with Blue; he's an average NFL runner with a starter body, and has enough athleticism to do the job behind this Texans offensive line that opens good creases. But Foster is a big-time weapon in the second level. Foster excels at the big play despite lacking burner speed because he's so good at making that second and third cut to create an open field situation that some of the faster backs in the league lacking his vision cannot. Foster is also one of those runners who wears teams out.
Blue has four games with double-digit carries so I don't think Houston has any budding curiosity to determine what they've got in Blue. By this time, they know what they have in the rookie. He's a competent runner with strength and patience. I can see Blue taking 15-20 percent off the top of Foster's remaining production while Houston is still mathematically in contention for a playoff spot, but not much more. Not enough to worry about Foster unless Houston loses the next three games.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Matt that Arian Foster's skill set provides the Texans with explosive plays that Blue probably dreams about. If Foster is healthy, he will dominate the carries and targets for the Texans down the stretch. I think Matt's 15 to 20% is right on and it would not surprise me for it to be on the low end of that range. The Texans are still in the playoff hunt and still have games at home against Jacksonville and Tennessee, as well as another at Jacksonville. If they could sweep those and win one of the three others at home against the Bengals and Ravens or on the road at Indianapolis, they could be in it till the end of the season.
Jeff Haseley: I am a little concerned about this, but I'm not alarmed. Blue's success last week gave the Texans a cushion to not rush Arian Foster back too soon. They are inching up in the playoff race and they want to be sure Foster is healthy for the stretch run. I see this as a slight negative in two ways—one, Foster could miss another week to give him more time to heal. Two, when he does return, he could potentially be spelled more often by Blue to keep him from overdoing it. Either way you look at it, it's not great news for Foster, but it's not a doom and gloom situation either. Foster should still see the money carries, i.e. goal line and short yardage. Instead of 28 carries, he might finish a game with 23, but the touchdowns and yardage should still be strong. I don't see much difference there.
John Lee: Surprisingly, the Texans are only a game out of first place in the AFC South and, obviously, need every win they can muster to keep pace with the Colts. In his first NFL start last week against the Browns, head coach Bill O'Brien fed the ball to Blue 36 times and Blue managed to accumulate 156 yards (no touchdowns) in the effort. That said, Blue did not display any special talents that would otherwise cut into Arian Foster's workload when he returns. Foster is, by far, the superior running back and he will be used in any meaningful situations (i.e., red zone, passing, etc.). The only time you will see Blue cut into Foster's carries is when the Texans are running out the clock with a lead, as they were a few weeks ago against the Titans, when Blue got 14 carries (10 of which were late in the game).
Jason Wood: Blue acquitted himself well in Foster's absence, but O'Brien has given no indication he's anything other than a one-RB coach this season. I would think the Texans are better off resting Foster another week and letting Blue shoulder the entire workload than mixing him back in in a time share. If Foster is cleared to play (as expected), I would think the Texans are confident he'll be able to be the centerpiece immediately. Blue is a must own for any Foster owner but I wouldn't hesitate to play Foster if he's active, and would be surprised if Blue is even flex-worthy.
Will Jeremy Hill continue to be a substantial part of the offense when Giovani Bernard is healthy?
Jeff Pasquino: Absolutely. Hill was already splitting time with Bernard (not equally, of course) and they had about the same number of touchdowns up to the point when Bernard was sidelined (Bernard five, Hill three after Week 8). Hill has shown that he can be a feature back and he has the talent, and Cincinnati would be wise to split time between the two and get the ball in the hands of two of their best offensive players. Running the ball 40+ times a game in November and December as the weather turns bad in a tough AFC North division sounds like a great way to plan a playoff push.
Stephen Holloway: Jeremy Hill has been outstanding for the Bengals the last three weeks, with two games over 150 yards and averaging 21 carries for 120 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and scoring two touchdowns. However, he has only three receptions in those three games. I expect that Hill will maintain double-digit rushes, possibly equal to the number that Bernard gets, only Bernard will get all of the targets in the passing game.
Jeff Haseley: I fully expect Jeremy Hill to see carries when Giovani Bernard returns. He's not going to see the sheer number of carries that he saw over the last few weeks, but he will still be a part of the offensive game plan. In my opinion, Hill's value takes a dip with Bernard's return. He's not a true RB2 option in my opinion, but more of a stretch-flex.
John Lee: I agree with the other guys that Hill will retain a major role in the Bengals' offense when Giovani Bernard returns. Hill has looked great as the feature back in this offense, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and two touchdowns in those three starts. I would look for the Bengals to feature both backs and emphasize their strengths when both are available; Bernard's ability to catch the ball should afford the Bengals the ability to open up the playbook and give him more of a "Pierre Thomas" role, where he gets 12+ carries and 6-10 passing targets per game, while allowing Hill to take the more traditional rushing running back role. How Hue Jackson uses them may be a question, but there is little doubt that both will be used frequently moving forward.
Jason Wood: Many thought Hill and Bernard would be a committee entering the season, and unlike the Alfred Blue situation, Hill has a pedigree and a baseline level of talent that argues for continued use. I don't see why the Bengals would suddenly disregard Hill particularly since his skill set is complementary with Bernard. In PPR leagues I think a healthy Bernard will remain a top 15-20 play every week. In standard leagues I suspect Hill will get enough work that Bernard becomes no better than a fantasy RB2.
There was some possibility early in the week that Adrian Peterson would return to the Vikings this week, but instead Peterson remains suspended and the Vikings have picked up Ben Tate instead. What does that mean for fantasy owners of Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata?
Jeff Haseley: Now that Ben Tate has been picked up, I do think there is reason to be concerned if you're relying on McKinnon or Asiata down the stretch. Tate has the ability to steal away some of their carries, especially if he picks up the offense quickly. I don't see a lot of involvement from Tate in the beginning, but as it gets closer to the fantasy playoffs, he could carve out a role that would likely reduce the value of the other two.
John Lee: There is no part of the Vikings' backfield that I want, unless Peterson were to somehow win his suspension appeal. First, the Vikings are just not an offense that intrigues me (18.1 points per game; 28th in the league). Next, Jerick McKinnon has not seen more than 2/3 of the Vikings' offensive snaps this year and he is now trending downward. Likewise, Matt Asiata sees even fewer snaps (~1/3) and now finds himself under concussion protocol surveillance, which further limits expectations for him. Lastly, the fact that the Vikings picked up Ben Tate off of waivers indicates that they are not pleased with either McKinnon or Asiata as a feature back; this entire backfield is a mess and I am avoiding it altogether.
Jason Wood: Although we know Peterson won't be on the field, the fact the Vikings claimed Ben Tate off waivers complicates this situation. I would do everything within my power to avoid this triumvirate; you just don't know what you're going to get. McKinnon has the best overall skill set but has been inconsistent and can't find the end zone. Asiata is a maddeningly effective short-yardage back but how often can we expect the Vikings to be in the red zone going forward? Tate was just let go by the Browns in favor of two rookies, so I view his signing as emergency depth until proven otherwise.
Saints without Cooks
How will the Saints' offense adjust to the loss of Brandin Cooks?
Jeff Pasquino: New Orleans is going to be fine without Cooks, but it is a loss for Drew Brees for sure. Cooks was the short-to-intermediate target for him in the passing game and he was a solid and explosive possession receiver. I think the targets he was getting will be spread around Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, with a little love for Travaris Cadet. Kenny Stills may see a very small uptick, but he's much more of a deep threat and those targets won't change much.
Matt Waldman: Pierre Thomas will be back next week. I expect the Saints to use him more in the passing game in Cooks' absence. Kenny Stills should see the field more, but I wonder how healthy he really is this year. He averaged 20 yards per catch as a rookie and while I didn't expect Still to follow up with anything more than 15-16 yards per catch, he's just a hair under 14 yards and has been more of a short and intermediate threat on back shoulder and perimeter routes. He has a puncher's chance of WR1 production each week with Cooks out, but he's more of a mid-range flex play in start 3-5 wide receiver lineup.
Stephen Holloway: In my opinion, Kenny Stills will be the primary beneficiary of the loss of Brandin Cooks. The Saints will definitely feel the loss of Cooks speed and athleticism, but Stills has seen his targets gradually increase over the season and I expect that increase to be accelerated with the loss of Cooks. Over the last four weeks, the targets for the Saints have been Graham 29, Cooks 25, Stills 22, Colston 20, Cadet 20, and Ingram 18. Colston's opportunities may also see a slight uptick as well. If Pierre Thomas is healthy, Cadet could lose snaps and targets to Thomas. Graham will continue to be the target leader, but Stills should see enough targets to approach Cooks' recent production.
Jeff Haseley: I honestly don't see any one player being the primary beneficiary of Brandin Cooks targets. Instead, I think we'll see more opportunities across the board to Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Kenny Stills and Travaris Cadet. If I had to point out one player who could rise more than his current value, it's Stills. Over the last five games, Stills has been right there with the others in targets and receptions. He was earning more touches even before the Cooks injury. Now we'll see what he can do in an increased role. Stills is the guy I am most intrigued by, because we don't know his ceiling yet. That alone has me paying closer attention.
John Lee: It would appear that Kenny Stills stands to gain the most from the loss of Cooks. Stills has only played about 50% of the Saints' offensive snaps this year due to the emergence of Cooks, but he averaged a respectable 6.1 fantasy points per game (non-PPR scoring) in those limited opportunities. With Cooks out, Stills could feasibly almost double his output simply by being on the field for twice the amount of time. Some might argue that Marques Colston benefits, but Colston looks to be a shell of his former self; sadly, the 31-year old looks like a 31-year old receiver on the field...he is a shell of his former self and his statistics this year are more of a reflection of his dwindling ability than his opportunity in this offense.
Jason Wood: The Saints haven't been their usually potent selves this season, and the loss of Cooks isn't going to help matters. But, as some of my colleagues have noted, Cooks wasn't impactful enough to think he can't be replaced. If Marques Colston didn't look completely broken down I would give him the lion's share of Cooks' targets. However, since we've seen no hints that Colston is an upper echelon receiver anymore, I think Cooks' targets will be spread around based on game script. The only player that MIGHT see a meaningful change in their fantasy value is Kenny Stills, but I wouldn't proactively make that bet.
Josh Gordon
Where do you rank Josh Gordon among fantasy wide receivers from here on out? How will his return affect Brian Hoyer's and Andrew Hawkins's fantasy prospects?
Jeff Pasquino: I usually want to see a player returning to action in at least one game before relying on him, but Gordon's a different situation. He wasn't hurt, just suspended. Hoyer is going to certainly look towards him more, but Hoyer has not been putting up great numbers and Cleveland is a run first team. I think defenses will have to respect Gordon and his ability to take over a game as a receiver, but I don't know if that translates to immediate value right away. I do think that Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins will both see fewer targets, and my gut tells me that Hawkins is the WR2 and Gabriel the WR3—although when both are on the field, Hawkins should be in the slot. Hawkins will see about the same number of targets and may have more room to run with a legit WR1 on the other side of the field. If and when Jordan Cameron returns, then all of the wide receivers will see more space and be better able to get open for Hoyer. To bring this full circle, I have Gordon as a WR2 until he shows that he is in game shape and on the same page with Hoyer—then I might consider him a Top 10 wideout again.
Matt Waldman: I wrote about Gordon and what to expect a couple weeks ago. Based on the target charting I did for the piece (you can see it there) and what I've seen on tape, Gordon should be no worse than a WR3 in PPR leagues and likely WR1 based on his target distribution in 2013 compared to his teammates' looks thus far. Will Gordon be the man on fire he was down the stretch last year? I'd caution you not to expect production that hot, but the fact he has been training at the Browns facility during his suspension is a good sign that Cleveland has a known commodity in terms of conditioning. I believe the impact of Gordon's return will remove a percentage of looks from Hawkins, Austin, and Gabriel, and it will probably be more apparent for Austin and Gabriel than Hawkins.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Matt that Gordon's training in Cleveland's facility could be an indicator that he will be productive right away. Cleveland's offense this year has been more balanced and productive than expected. Brian Hoyer is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and even with the dearth of receiving options has completed 56% of his passes. Gordon's explosive production a year ago was with a quarterback combination of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden and Hoyer, who cumulatively averaged 6.4 yards per attempt with about the same completion percentage. Gordon was among the league leaders a year ago in targets and he did the most with the targets he got, leading the league with 1,646 receiving yards and averaging 18.9 yards per reception and scoring nine touchdowns in only 14 games played. Cleveland's overall offense is much better than a year ago, ranking 15th in rushing compared to 27th and ranking 18th in scoring compared to 27th. They don't need Gordon as much as they did a year ago, but look for him to be far and away the target leader for the rest of the season and if he and Hoyer can get on the same page quickly, he should produce at least in the top twelve wide receivers, particularly in the fantasy playoffs. The Browns face some of the NFL's poorest pass defense teams the rest of the year, including games against Atlanta (32nd), Indianapolis (27th), Cincinnati (20th) and Carolina (23rd).
Jeff Haseley: I see Cleveland as a run-first offense right now. If Josh Gordon comes in and is force-fed the ball, I think we'll see results similar to last year. If he eases into the offense and plays a secondary role to the strong run game, then we may be a little disappointed in what could be an inconsistent outlook. If I had to guess, I think Cleveland is going to use him early and often. I would not be surprised to see him have 10-12 targets in his first game back against Atlanta.
John Lee: Despite picking up Josh Gordon in a few of my season-long leagues, I am still not sold on his fantasy prospects for this season for a number of reasons: 1) Bobby Hoyer does not possess the arm strength to consistently find Gordon on the deep passes that Brandon Weeden did last year, 2) Kyle Shanahan is not Norv Turner...the former is a run-heavy guy, while the latter is pass-happy; Shanahan will certainly try to use Gordon, but we still do not know in what capacity, 3) I am a firm believer that quarterbacks and their receivers must have synchrony to excel in the NFL. Bobby Hoyer has played exactly two games with Josh Gordon and they were over a year ago...until this week, they have not practiced together since last year. I expect that they will need some time to gel and get their timing patterns together. All of this said, Gordon's upside is too immense to leave him on your waiver wire—if he is available, you should pick him up immediately because he is a special talent who could be a difference-maker, if all things fall into place over the next month.
Regarding Gordon's effect on Hoyer and Hawkins, there is little doubt that both players will become better fantasy options. Hoyer gets a bona fide WR1 in Gordon and a redzone target that he has not had for most of the season. Meanwhile, Hawkins has been solid as a possession receiver for the Browns, but has struggled at times when opposing teams can focus more on him due to a lack of other receiving options; with the return of Gordon, Hawkins will be covered by a single cornerback in nearly every instance, which should help open him up for additional opportunities in the passing game.
Jason Wood: Gordon should be a top 10 receiver the rest of the way. If you didn't expect that level of play, I would ask why you bothered holding onto him for three months taking up a valuable roster spot. Some have expressed concern that Gordon won't be in 'game shape.' Yet, he's by all accounts kept himself in tip top physical condition. Why should Gordon in Week 12 be any different than starting your other studs in Week 1 of a season? As to Hoyer, Gordon will obviously help both in terms of his per-attempt productivity AND his overall counting stats. I'm not sure I see Hoyer becoming a fringe QB1 but I can see him being a viable streaming option from here on out. Hawkins will continue to get looks, but I think his fringe PPR value takes just enough of a hit to be a subpar starting option the rest of the way.
RBs on the rise
Which running back will score the most points the rest of this season: Jonas Gray, C.J. Anderson, or Isaiah Crowell?
Jeff Pasquino: I'm going with Mr. Anderson. With Montee Ball hurt again, Ronnie Hillman out for weeks and only Juwan Thompson as a backup, taking Peyton Manning's every down running back makes the most sense for me. Crowell would be second choice, but I think Cleveland is still playing musical tailbacks and Terrance West is going to get plenty of chances, and even Ben Tate as well. Jonas Gray has the feel of a one week wonder to me where the matchup was just perfect for him to hammer the ball between the tackles against Indianapolis.
Matt Waldman: Crowell (shocker, I know . . . ). Tate has been cut, Mike Pettine offered the same rationale for three of Crowell's four fumbles that I had a few weeks ago, and West is not as decisive or agile a runner as Crowell. The agility part may be a surprise to some of you, but West runs flat-footed at times and it forces him to take more circuitous and dramatic paths to avoid pursuit. Crowell has always been an economical runner with the agility to make a dramatic move as necessary, but he maintains a downhill mentality more often.
The fact that Pettine kept Crowell in the ball game to begin the second half of the Texans game after Crowell's red zone fumble late in the first half says a lot about how he has come to regard the young runner. I believe the "match up/rotation by game plan rationale" isn't much different than the Rams saying they'd go with the hot hand and pretty much stuck with Tre Mason. West will get meaningful touches, but Crowell will get another strong shot to be the highest volume guy moving forward.
Cleveland's schedule is most favorable compared to Denver and New England. I like Anderson and he's probably the "safer" fantasy choice for the more risk-averse, but the Broncos will have no qualms about using Juwan Thompson as a blocker, receiver, and red zone runner. Combine that dynamic with a bit of a tougher schedule than Cleveland and I have the outlooks almost even between Anderson and Crowell. Therefore, I'm going with talent, which is where Crowell wins.
Gray is a decent running back. He had good feet, burst, and vision at Notre Dame. Injuries held back his transition to the league. He's worth the risk if you can't get Crowell or Anderson, but the Patriots have a week-to-week feel with its game plan when it comes to "who will be the 2-3 guys that perform well," so I'm more cautious about endorsing him.
Stephen Holloway: Anderson is the preferred option for me primarily because although each of three have clear opportunity to be their team's leading rusher down the stretch, Anderson has proven himself to be an excellent receiving back. In only the past three games, he has been targeted 21 times and made 15 catches for 192 yards and a TD. Despite playing in ten games this year, Crowell has only managed eight targets and made five catches for 46 yards. Meanwhile, Gray has no receptions on only one target.
All three will see the field a lot and would be welcome additions, particularly with the plethora of injuries and suspensions this season. But in addition to the lack of use in the passing game, Gray has the toughest schedule of the three with games against the Lions, Dolphins and Jets, all ranked in the top ten against the rush and yards given up per carry.
Jeff Haseley: I'll go with C.J. Anderson here. He has shown the ability to be a versatile weapon for the Broncos, which goes a long way in my opinion. The injuries that surround him on the depth chart also lead me to believe that he will see the majority of the team's carries by a large margin. Anderson could easily be the one player that puts teams over the top in the playoff race, but also beyond.
John Lee: I know Matt loves Isaiah Crowell, but there are still too many questions surrounding Crowell to make me feel comfortable naming him at the best running back of these three moving forward. First, the Browns offensive line has been dreadful since losing All-Pro Center Alex Mack back in Week #6. Before Mack was injured, the Browns were averaging nearly five yards per carry on the ground; since he left, they are averaging a league-worst 2.6 yards per carry. Perhaps the return of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon will stretch the field a bit, but we still do not know that Hoyer will be able to connect with Gordon on those deep routes, just yet. Also, let's not forget that Crowell has a tendency to fumble; he has three fumbles on 78 carries, which makes his a candidate to get pulled at any given point...particularly given the fact that Terrence West has not fumbled all season, despite carrying the ball an additional 40 times. In fairness, Crowell has looked better than West, averaging a full yard per carry more than West, but let's not forget that West had 26 carries just two weeks ago, which means that the Browns' coaching staff has not committed to any of these guys for the long-term.
With LeGarrette Blount signing with the Patriots on Thursday morning, Gray is probably the lowest of this bunch, simply because he will lose opportunities to Blount, who just left this team in the off-season and is, therefore, already familiar with the system. Gray's performance last Sunday night was impressive, but if the Patriots were convinced that he was the guy for the remainder of the season, they would not have signed Blount. Gray should still be the lead back in Foxborough, but the addition of Blount tempers my enthusiasm for him this season.
Jason Wood: I'm going with Crowell. Matt Waldman turned me onto Crowell in the preseason after he ranked him as his top running back prospect in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I own a lot of shares of Crowell and, needless to say, was thrilled to see Ben Tate's release. At a minimum we know Crowell will be sharing the load now with Terrance West, but based on what we've seen of each rookie, I expect Crowell will emerge from the committee and be an every down starter in the key fantasy playoff weeks. I actually like both Gray and Anderson, too, for what it's worth.
Patriots re-sign Blount
Nobody picked Jonas Gray in answer to the last question. How much does Jonas Gray's upside drop as a result of the Blount signing?
John Lee: Gray's fantasy prospects are significantly affected. Blount should be able to plug into the system quickly (having just left) and should vulture a good portion of those redzone opportunities. Vereen should be largely unaffected, as his role in the offense is quite different from Gray or Blount, in my opinion.
Sigmund Bloom: Gray isn't going to have any 37 carry games again this season and it does cap his weekly upside, but I don't think it's a crippling blow to his value and on the whole I am seeing an overreaction in the fantasy football community. The Patriots were exposed to lacking a power running element if Gray were to go down—I think this was about depth more any misgivings about Gray. Ridley was healthy and getting double-digit carries when Blount was going off last year, including his four-touchdown game in the playoffs. Gray still has as much value as, say, Tre Mason. When the Patriots are likely to control a game, he's going to be worth at least a flex play.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Sigmund. The 150-yard upside is likely gone, but it doesn't mean he's not good for 80-120 and a score in any given week.
Ari Ingel: Any running back on New England is so hard to trust from week to week because it's New England and Belichick. Blount makes it even more difficult.
WR-CB matchups
This might have more relevance for daily fantasy games than for traditional leagues, but let's talk a bit about individual matchups between receivers and defensive backs. Are there any matchups we should be particularly aware of?
Jeff Pasquino: My first thought after watching last Sunday's action was how good Cleveland was in coverage last week against Houston, with Joe Haden all over DeAndre Hopkins and the deep passes. His interception was just phenomenal. I think Haden is arguably the best cover corner in the league, and he's certainly the most underrated in my book. He goes up against Atlanta this week, and I think that is going to be a problem for Julio Jones.
That's definitely a matchup to be aware of. Another is that the Falcons may shadow Josh Gordon with Desmond Trufant this week. Matt, what's your take on that battle?
Matt Waldman: Trufant is feisty, but Markus Wheaton made mincemeat of Trufant at the Senior Bowl a couple of years go. He'll compete well with Gordon on some routes, but if Gordon can physically dominate the likes of Aqib Talib, Gordon has the skills that Benjamin lacks to destroy the Falcons' corner—and it's not like Benjamin's 9-109-01 effort last week as poor fantasy production.
Gordon actually knows how to run a slant route. He always displayed a level of care and detail with patterns that Benjamin is still learning. It was Benjamin who failed to finish breaks on slant routes that resulted in interceptions during the past two games.
Gordon is less likely to display this behavior. Further, Gordon is a vastly better receiver after the catch than Benjamin and what fantasy owners should expect is a decent dosage of slants, hooks, and hitches that give Gordon a one-on-one situation where he has a chance to tear through Trufant like a herd of mommas at the entrance of a Wal-Mart on Black Friday.
Look at the team logs and you'll notice a one of two things that stand out with the wide receivers that produced against Atlanta—skill after the catch and/or height. Atlanta has played 10 games and there have been 12 receivers with at least 70 yards and seven receivers with over 100 yards. Even teams with "one-man shows" like Golden Tate (sans Calvin Johnson) and Kelvin Benjamin had 100-plus-yard days against the Falcons.
There's reason for optimism that Gordon gets the better of Trufant in a big way at least once this weekend.
Good stuff. How would you handicap the matchup between the Lions' wide receivers and the Patriots cornerbacks this weekend?
New England's secondary has given up 70 yards or more to eight receivers and 100 yards or more to only a pair of wideouts in 10 weeks. One of those 100-yard weeks came in garbage time of the blowout of Denver. The receivers that performed as quality fantasy starters have speed: Mike Wallace, A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders. While Green, Sanu, and Thomas have the ability to win plays on 50-50 balls, it's their size/speed/route skills that give them the best opportunity to beat Revis, and Calvin Johnson offers this ability.
I wrote about the Revis-Johnson matchup last year when the corner was coming off his ACL tear and playing for the Buccaneers, and despite being a year healthier, some of the same principles apply. For starters, Revis wins as a physical player capable of bumping and prodding receivers on vertical routes, but he's not always going to press Johnson. We'll see enough off coverage because he'll have to respect Johnson's speed. This will allow Johnson to break under Revis, shield the defender from the ball, and break a tackle for extra yards or move the chains with comebacks at the sideline.
I also expect Revis to have safety help on the deep routes so he can play trail and break underneath routes to attack the ball as part of an over-under bracket. The Patriots will hope it can have one defensive back play physical with Johnson while the other plays the ball by either stripping it form Johnson's grip or grabbing a rebound. The Buccaneers did this last year on a long pass to the Tampa five that the defense intercepted to seal the game with 0:54 left.
Johnson had a 7-115-0 box score against Tampa last year. I think this is his upside against the Patriots.
Is there a chance that the Patriots will put Revis on Golden Tate a fair amount of the time, using Brandon Browner plus safety help on Calvin Johnson?
Dan Hindery: Yes, I could see that happening. On the one, hand it makes sense for New England to put their top guy on Calvin Johnson all game and hope Revis shuts him down. That leaves Tate with a matchup he can potentially exploit on the other side though as he has a huge quickness advantage on Browner. From a size-speed matchup perspective, to avoid letting Tate exploit Browner, putting Browner on Calvin and Revis on Tate makes a lot of sense.
I’m at the point where I’m avoiding Revis every week because he has been shutting almost everybody down.
So Tate might be a guy to avoid this week based on his potential matchup with Revis. Are there any receivers who might become sneaky starts this week based on individual matchups?
John Lee: Yes. A guy that I have my eye on for daily fantasy purposes this weekend is Riley Cooper. Yes...that Riley Cooper.
Cooper has not generated any meaningful game starts this season and he is off most daily radars at this point due to the emergence of rookie wide receiver Jordan Matthews over the past few weeks. That said, if you examine Cooper's matchup against the Titans, he could be a sneaky tournament play at a very, very low salary. According to ProFootballFocus, Cooper is one of few NFL wide receivers who actually stays on the same side of the field for the majority of the game; in fact, he leads the league in the percentage of snaps taken from the left side of the field (84%). Because of that trend, he should see a steady dose of Titans' CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, who covers the LWR on about 2/3 of the opposing team's offensive snaps. Some quick math tells me that Cooper will have Wreh-Wilson shadowing him on about 50% of his routes, which is enticing because Wreh-Wilson is ranked 58th out of 70 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage on the season; furthermore, he has allowed five touchdowns in coverage, which is bad enough for 57th (out of 67) in the entire league. When Wreh-Wilson is not covering Cooper, he should see Jason McCourty who, in fairness, has only allowed one touchdown on the season, but has allowed more receptions (55 receptions from 79 attempts, a 69.7% completion rate) than any other cornerback in the league.
For his part, Cooper is still playing the vast majority of the Eagles' offensive snaps and he is averaging 6.2 targets per game, despite Jordan Matthews taking on a more pronounced role. With the coverage that Cooper will see this weekend, his floor is four catches and 40 yards, but his upside is significant on a team projected to score nearly 30 points, particularly in daily games where his salary will be near to or at the site minimum. I like him for large-field tournaments where player ownership is important for success.
With Allen Robinson out for the Jaguars, Cecil Shorts and Allen Hurns are attractive values on many of the daily fantasy sites. Do we know which one Vontae Davis will primarily cover?
John Lee: I love Cecil Shorts this week...he has been heavily targeted lately and should match up against Greg Toler, who has been pretty terrible in coverage this year.
Chase Stuart: John—how do you know he will be lined up against Toler instead of Davis?
John Lee: Vontae Davis usually sticks to the right cornerback position, with Toler on the left, so it will be up to the Jaguars to decide which receiver lines up across from corner. Shorts has lined up mostly on the right this season, so if that pattern continues, he'll get Toler most of the time. Of course, that could change because of the injury to Allen Robinson, and Shorts did line up on the left side more than the right last week, so it's hard to know for sure what will happen this week.
Phil Alexander: Side note on Toller—he's in the concussion protocol, and questionable to play. Not sure his backup can be any worse, but it might make things even better for Shorts.
Cian Fahey does the Jaguars game summaries for us, so let's get his take. Cian, does Robinson's injury mean that Shorts will move over to the left wide receiver spot permanently?
Cian Fahey: Nah, they move around. He and Hurns will both get snaps on either side of the field.
Ryan Hester: Because their roles as number one and number two are pretty clear and because I expect garbage-time points in this game, I'm doing some daily lineups with Shorts and a few with Hurns—mainly using Hurns in the ones where I need the cheaper guy.
Dan Hindery: I liked the Jaguars wide receiver play early in the week, but after some more research I’m less enthusiastic. The team seems super focused on limiting interceptions, which maybe means more Denard Robinson and less slinging the ball around (even if they are behind). Second, they are talking up getting Marqise Lee more involved which, is another potential issue for Shorts and Hurns.
In the same game, what do we expect on the other side of the ball, when the Colts are on offense?
John Lee: T.Y. Hilton looks to be in a great spot this week lining up across from Dwayne Gratz, who is allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 130.6 on the year...with Ahmad Bradshaw out and Hilton being on Revis Island last week, I look for him to get heavily involved this week.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.
