Name a player in the Top 100 you still wouldn't draft if he were available a couple rounds after his normal ADP. Why are you avoiding him?
Jeff Pasquino: I would avoid Steven Jackson.
There's no way that I believe that Jackson will be a feature tailback any longer in Atlanta. Even if he is labeled as such to start the season, Jacquizz Rodgers and rookie Devonta Freeman are going to be pushing him from Day 1 of training camp. Jackson was such a poor feature back last year that the ground game for the Falcons was one of the weakest in the league (averaging 77.9 yards per game last year, last in the NFL). Atlanta only ran 31.3% of the time, also the worst rate of any team last year. Jackson is now 31 years old and missed four games last year with a hamstring injury. Even when he was "healthy", he ran for just 542 yards and six touchdowns in 12 games, adding just 191 yards and one score on 33 receptions. His 189 touches amounted to less than four yards per carry and less than six per catch, while Rodgers pushed him for playing time on passing downs even when Jackson was the starter. I believe that Freeman has starter talent, both as a rusher and a receiver, and he will push Jackson to be the top running back in August. Freeman will spark the offense this year and take over as the primary tailback before November, making Jackson irrelevant by mid-season. There's no way I would spend a 6th or 7th round pick on Jackson who offers nothing but downside risk this year.
Andy Hicks: I'll choose one running back and one wide receiver.
First, running back Rashad Jennings. His draft position is a very high price to pay for a guy with a half year career at the age of 29 at a position with high turnover. Until Week 9 of the 2013 season when he recorded 15 carries for 102 yards with a touchdown and 7 receptions for 74 yards, Jennings was a career underachiever who managed to avoid success in the NFL by getting injured or underwhelming whenever he was put in a position to start. He finally hit in the last half of 2013 with the Oakland Raiders. What did he do then? Moved to his 3rd team in 3 years where they have a wildcard in David Wilson still around and they promptly drafted Andre Williams with the 112th overall pick of the 2014 draft. Will Jennings continue on where he left with the Raiders or will he do what he's done for the first 5 1/2 years of his career? At the price of a 3rd or early 4th round pick I'd rather look anywhere else. What is a realistic upside for Jennings? Can he realistic record the 200+ carries he needs to achieve his ADP? At best Jennings gets close to his ADP and gets a high RB2 slot, the downside is much worse and more likely.
And next, wide receiver Roddy White. Like Jeff I'm picking an aging Falcon. Roddy White had been one of the most reliable fantasy receivers in a long while. 6 consecutive top 14 finishes, with 5 top 10 finishes between 2008 to 2012. Until last year. Julio Jones and Steven Jackson got injured and the Atlanta Falcons missed their current Super Bowl window. Tony Gonzalez has retired, Jones will be back and somehow Roddy White will be back as well? He played injured last year and recorded only 53 receptions for 711 yards. Harry Douglas posted 85 receptions and topped 1000 yards for the first time in his career and is now supposed to be an after thought? The presence of Douglas and Jones alone is enough to re-evaluate the 33 year old White and with a likely emphasis on running the ball more than their 32nd ranked 2013 season and White is nowhere near worth the 4th round pick people are going to pay. Avoid White and if you really like the Falcons take Douglas around the same time people are taking kickers and defenses.
Jeff Pasquino: Great picks, Andy - and I like the Harry Douglas target late as well. I too think ATL will be going 3-wide most of the time.
Stephen Holloway: I will be avoiding tight end Vernon Davis of the 49ers. Davis is an extraordinary athlete and he scored 14 TDs a year ago, but has a career high 129 targets, way back in 09 and has averaged only 87 targets per year over the past three season, while Jim Harbaugh was coaching the team. The 49ers simply don't pass the ball often enough for Davis to be a reliable producer. Crabtree only played in five games last target season and a review of those final five games of the season revealed that Anquan Boldin led the team with 47 targets, Michael Crabtree had 33 and Davis only had 23, less than 5 targets per game. The 49ers will have Crabtree available at the beginning of 2014 and also added Steve Johnson in the off-season. They have actually passed less as a team each season under Harbaugh, falling from 451 pass attempts in 2011 to 417 last year. Even if they pass more often this year, there are more quality receivers for Kaepernick to throw to.
Sigmund Bloom: Ben Tate is very overrated anywhere in the first 5-6 rounds. He is injury prone and the Browns brought in two talented running backs on draft weekend. It's difficult to picture him being a good investment as anything more than a top bench RB in the 7th/8th.
Mark Wimer: This one is easy: Rob Gronkowski. The guy had a very significant, late-season knee injury (torn MCL and ACL during Week 14 of the 2013 season, and he had corrective surgery on January 9, 2014). Gronkowski is steadfastly refusing to put a time-table on his return to the field, and though some notable fast-healers have been highly productive only eight-to-nine-months removed from reconstructive knee surgery (Adrian Peterson, anyone?), Gronkowski has a history of being extremely thorough in his previous injury rehabs, staying off the field until the END of a reasonable time window for recovering from an injury, rather than being back on the field at the beginning of the reasonable time window. And many players have stated they don't really feel fully recovered from reconstructive knee surgery until after a year has passed.
Remember last season's agonizing six-week wait for him to finally strap on his pads and helmet and play during Week 7, and imagine that stretching into December of 2014 this time around. Yuck - no thanks.
It wouldn't shock me to see Gronkowski on PUP to start the season this year, and it wouldn't shock me to see him eventually wind up on I.R. if he suffers a set-back in the rehab of his knee. There is no way I am touching him as the second tight end selected in a redraft league. That is extremely, vastly over-optimistic regarding Gronkowski's probable fantasy production during 2014.
James Brimacombe: A player I will be avoided this year and especially in PPR will be Wes Welker. When you hear Welker's name you always assume that he is a PPR king and will give you 6+ catches a game. Well that wasn't true in year one in Denver as he took a bit of a dip in his reception only averaging about 5.5 per game. The one nice thing he did have going for him last year was that he was playing on a team with Peyton Manning who happened to break the passing touchdown record with 55 and Welker happened to grab 10 of those scores. It is hard to envision Manning throwing for close to that many touchdowns again this year and with Welker getting banged up a little last year, you wonder if this is the year he takes a step back. Denver also has a running game that is looking to get going with Montee Ball coming into year two, and with both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas demanding targets it is going to be hard for Welker to continue his success in the PPR world. Add in both Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer at the wide receiver position and the production that Welker once saw earlier in his career just doesn't seem to make sense in 2014. I am anticipating a major drop in production for Welker this year and will not overspend to have him on any of my teams.
