Assuming Jamaal Charles is taken first, who is your selection at the 1.02 spot?
Adam Harstad: This one's an easy one for me, as I don't think Charles is the no-brainer #1 overall pick this year. I think LeSean McCoy has just as strong of a case, and I'd be equally happy to walk out of the draft with either.
James Brimacombe: I will take it one step further and say that it is a toss up between Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy in any sort of PPR league, and the 1.03 could also be in discussion with Adrian Peterson there as well. To me those three RBs are a tier ahead of every other player and position on the board. Drafting Charles or McCoy that high you are also going to have to think about some insurance late in the draft with the likes of a Knile Davis or a Chris Polk to make sure you get the best return on your 1.02 investment.
Chad Parsons: Good points by Adam and James already. I typically do not like having the 1.01 spot after a running back comes off a huge season like Jamaal Charles in 2013. Charles was four points-per-game better than any other running back last season. I am with Adam that LeSean McCoy would be my top overall selection and thus far an easy pick at number two. McCoy is younger, in a better offense, Bryce Brown was traded to Buffalo (not a huge factor, but cannot hurt), and Darren Sproles will rarely take carries away from McCoy.
Matt Waldman: Debating the merits of taking one RB over another within this range of the draft is really important, but when looking at the rankings turnover from one year to the next I get the sneaking suspicion that we're talking about doing microsurgery while wearing mittens. Half of the RBs in 2013 that were considered fantasy RB1s via ADP weren't fantasy RB1s to end the year. Between 2007-2013, the turnover at fantasy RB1 (top 12 from one year to the next) is 63%, Further, the turnover rate for the top-three and top-six during that span is 78 and 75 percent, respectively.
The smart person who is self possessed enough to ignore the heavy culture pressure in fantasy football to draft an RB would consider Calvin Johnson and take running backs later. However, if you feel that you're going to be in that 22-25 percentile and make the right choice (or to be real...get lucky) then I'd suggest you lower expectations and aim to hit the target (the top-12) rather than go for the bull's eye (the No.2 overall RB).
Jamaal Charles is a terrific back. Talent-wise it's hard to argue that he's worth consideration as the 1.01. LeSean McCoy is also in that conversation because of the combination of the offensive system, the offensive line play, and his use. Both are young enough that neither player is a major injury concern due to age. However, Charles' size, running style, and previous injuries might be a concern for some. The addition of Darren Sproles and McCoy's size and workload during two of the past three years might be a minor concern.
A valid argument could be made that Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson are even safer bets than Charles and McCoy as RB1s and top-five RBs. All three earn consistent touch counts, possess good--if not very good--offensive lines, and they see a lot of use in the red zone. Charles and McCoy are more entertaining to watch in their offenses and certainly capable of topping the trio of Lynch, Forte, and Peterson, but in a re-draft league where the turnover margins are as high as they are? If I'm bent on taking a back, I'd have a tough time arguing against any of these five as the 1.02.
I still have to circle back to Johnson--a top-3 WR the past three years and a top-6 WR for all but two years of his career--whose production rivals the top RBs. If you examine the average VBD totals from 2011-2013, WR1-WR4 is is one of the top 12 positions overall. Although WR1 is ranked between RB4 and RB5 on this average VBD ranking, there's only one player the past three years that has been a more consistent first-round option than Calvin Johnson.
That player is Lynch, who was No.5 in 2011 and No.4 in 2012 and 2013. If you're going to for a "safe stud", Lynch and Johnson might be the best two players to take in that order. Neither are considered conventional picks at 1.02, but both have better offenses surrounding them, they're the centerpieces with high touch counts, they score touchdowns, and they play hurt.
There's a decent argument to be made that these two are more substance than flash and complement my argument that a good first round pick might just be a "safe" pick rather than a flashy one.
Hard to say if I completely buy what I selling here, but it's worth thinking about.
Andy Hicks: As much as I see where Matt is going with the Calvin Johnson argument, you have to be pretty brave to pass up on true RB1 fantasy backs in the early first round.
Yes they may get injured, but the true fantasy stud running back is the often the difference between a dominant fantasy side and a fringe playoff side.
While there will be some who take Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning or even Jimmy Graham early with the right scoring systems, you can narrow the first 5 picks to the guys in Matt's discussion.
Jamaal Charles isn't a consensus number 1 and as Adam, James and Chad have mentioned LeSean McCoy deserves serious consideration to be rated closely to Charles. Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch round out a top 5 that will dominate most draft boards.
Jeff Pasquino: For me, if I have a top 2-4 pick, I'm taking a feature tailback with that selection, even in a PPR league or with a TE-bonus league. As dominant as Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham are, there are just so few true feature tailbacks nowadays that the value of the few that are left are really elevated. That means Charles, McCoy, Peterson and either Forte or Lynch have to be right at the top of the list to draft if you get an early pick. I would start to consider Johnson at the fourth pick and beyond (as I think Forte and Lynch may face some challenge for lead back at some point this season). I love Calvin Johnson, but wide receiver is so ridiculously deep and feature RB is so shallow that I would take Charles then McCoy then Peterson in that order with the Top 3 picks.
As for those who are saying that McCoy may not finish in the Top 3 - I highly doubt that. As long as he stays healthy, the Eagles' offense will run through McCoy even more this year. Philadelphia wants to go even faster on offense this year, which means more plays and snaps overall. Even if Chip Kelly gives McCoy a break by using Darren Sproles or even Chris Polk for a series, McCoy will push 2,000 total yards again this year even with just 300-350 touches. If Charles goes #1 in my draft and I get the chance to take McCoy at 1.02, that's my pick.
Matt Waldman: I'll make the counter that in most leagues that allow you the flexibility to start 3RBs or 5WRs or some combination of WRs and TEs, the difference is overstated from days where everyone started 2 RBs and 2-3 WRs without flex options. Plus, the past decade of data shows that the likelihood of picking a RB in the first round who actually turns out to be that stud or even a startable option is less than you'd imagine.
Looking at the data, it actually requires a bit of bravery--it not downright hubris--to presume you're going to be the skilled one who picks that stud RB. That said, if you have 1.01 or 1.02, it's worth a shot to do so. However, at 1.03-1.05 it's a pretty good idea to consider a safer play when at least half of the RBs with RB1 or RB2 production will half preseason ADPs of round five or later. This is especially true if you can pick Johnson, Manning, Graham, or a combo of two of the three with another quality WR.
So while I agree with 1.02 is probably still optimal to take a chance on the RB, the old thinking that it would be a wasteful pick to go with a WR1 is no longer a strong argument based on the data.
Sigmund Bloom: LeSean McCoy. Even if they cut back on his carries/receptions, he's still one of the most explosive backs in the league, in one of the best running games in the league, behind one of the best lines in the league. He'll still get 20+ touches a game and be set up for a ton of touchdown opportunities. He is the perfect back for the Chip Kelly system and hitting his prime at a young age 26 on the opening day of the season.
Mark Wimer: To me, the pick at 1.02 is clear - Calvin Johnson. In fact, he's #1 on my overall board and that is because he is among the handful of NFL players that plays hurt (as Matt Waldman pointed out), but he is ALSO a guy who is tough enough, explosive enough and talented enough to be extremely productive even when fighting through a nagging injury.
He's been the top fantasy wide receiver in two of the last three seasons, and finished third last year despite missing two games. The addition of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron during free agency and the draft (respectively) will give Matthew Stafford even more quality targets to throw at - teams can't simply double- and triple-cover Johnson this year assuming that Tate, Ebron, and the other surrounding talent in Detroit make it through preseason relatively healthy. Given what Johnson has done with an inordinate amount of defensive attention over the past three years, I think he's in for another MONSTER season this year.
Johnson is, in my mind, the most likely "elite" fantasy player to repeat an elite season.
I know that many are in love with LeSean McCoy and his role in the Philadelphia offense, but I truly believe that Darren Sproles was brought in to carry a significant part of the burden at RB for McCoy - the Eagles want to make a deep run into the playoffs, and to do so they need McCoy reasonably fresh in January - after fantasy season is over. The Eagles didn't pay Sproles $10.5 million over three years to have him stand around on the sidelines and watch McCoy - Bryce Brown would have filled that sort of "holding the clipboard" backup role admirably. And I don't think they paid $10.5 million to Sproles for 6-8 touches per game as some in the Philadelphia press have suggested in recent months.
Jamaal Charles had a season for the ages last year, but it's very hard to repeat a career-best performance in back-to-back years - Charles had 25 more receptions last year than his previous career-best, and 225 more receiving yards - 70/693/7 receiving is clearly a statistical outlier for Charles (he had one TD reception in four of the previous five seasons, with three TD receptions as his previous best, set during 2010), while Johnson's 156 targets and 84 receptions for 1,492 yards were the WORST he's done in those categories over the past three years, indicating there is PLENTY of room for Johnson to bounce back significantly during 2014 - it would not surprise me in the least to see Johnson well over 100 receptions once again this year.
In short, Johnson is one (perhaps THE one) elite fantasy option who actually has room to significantly exceed last seasons' performance, whereas Charles and McCoy have plenty of reasons why they may well fall short of their lofty numbers from 2013, and exceeding their 2013 performance seems unlikely, at best. Calvin Johnson is the guy I'd target at 1.02.
