I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Saint Louis (-3.5) vs. Arizona
Next year, the Rams are going to go 11-5 and make a nice playoff run, and everyone is going to wonder where it came from. Well, judging from this line, it won’t be a surprise to Vegas. See, if you assume that the Rams are getting the 3-point benefit by virtue of being the home team, that means Vegas still sees the 6-7 Rams as a half point better than the 10-3 Cardinals in a neutral setting. And THAT’S the kind of math that you won’t get from those other sites.
Pick: Rams
Kansas City (-10.5) vs. Oakland
Like Darryl Strawberry in the 90’s, this is just way too high.
Pick: Raiders
New England (-7.5) vs. Miami
Unfortunately, it’s time to come around on the Patriots. I fought it. I really did. It took everything I had to finally admit this, but they’re going to win the Super Bowl. For years, people looked at the dominant offense and got blinded by all of the points, not realizing that this was not a great team in playoff terms due to the D. But here we are. And nobody else has a chance. Is it still a legitimate reverse jinx attempt if it’s really obvious?
Pick: Patriots
Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Atlanta
Pittsburgh coming off a huge divisional victory in a possible must-win game? Yep, just about that time to fall flat.
Pick: Falcons
Indianapolis (-6.5) vs. Houston
Things are getting slightly interesting in the AFC South, so it’s time to end this little charade. No reason the Colts should win this game by less than a touchdown.
Pick: Colts
New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Washington
My company (yes, a lot of us staffers have “real life” jobs besides this one) owns a suite for Giants home games that we give out to partners, clients, etc. The entire suite has been filled and pretty much booked solid since August. A note was sent out internally this morning that 25% of the suite is still open for this week’s game. And that tells you all you need to know about this one. Puke.
Pick: Redskins
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Cleveland
Cleveland remains Taylor Swift at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show. Not bad on its own, but simply dwarfed by too much other talent all around to really take them seriously. With the line being so close, you’re likely picking the winner of the game and not worrying about a spread so much. Cincy won’t lose to divisional opponents back to back.
Pick: Bengals
Baltimore (-13.5) vs. Jacksonville
I’m in a 900+ person survivor pool which is now down to 23 teams, giving me and a friend a decent shot at splitting around $29,000. Since we’re going with Baltimore, and loh yeah the fates want us to die from heart attacks before we can win the money, I’m sure this one will go to OT at the very least. It’s also about 3.5 points too high.
Pick: Jaguars
Carolina (-5.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Really expected this line to be higher after the performance Carolina put on a week ago against the Saints. I was fully prepared to back the Bucs here, but to be honest this is a reasonable number and Carolina should win this by a touchdown.
Pick: Panthers
Green Bay (-6.5) at Buffalo
I know it’s been beaten to death all week, but this Green Bay offense really is something to behold. It’s like seeing the Beatles in their prime or when Chazz Reinhold was revealed or the first time you saw Abigail Ratchford (hint, hint, go Lougle her right now if you haven’t done so already). Point is, I realize they didn’t even cover last week but that was their scare. This group is just about unstoppable.
Pick: Packers
New York Jets (-1.5) at Tennessee
I don’t care how bad Tennessee looked last week or how close the Jets played Minnesota. I’m not laying points on the road with this Jets team. No chance.
Pick: Titans
Denver (-4.5) at San Diego
Peyton Manning kind of slept through fantasy playoff Week 1 against Buffalo last Sunday, so he should be on target for around 7 or 8 touchdowns this week. And while one might expect Denver to just roll in this one, I see this as his annual “struggle for no reason against San Diego’s putrid defense” game. The Chargers may not win (they won’t), but it’ll be a field goal game. Most likely kicked by Connor Barth on the last play of the game when our defense had a chance to get off the field in 3rd and long but failed miserably. It is written.
Pick: Chargers
Seattle (-9.5) vs. San Francisco
After each team’s performances over the last few weeks, this one seems trending towards a blowout in Seattle’s favor. But that’s still a proud team over there in San Francisco, and more importantly it’s still a fairly solid group of talent going up against a division rival. I just don’t think these teams are typically separated by double digit points. Not a popular opinion perhaps, but we rarely win bets by trusting the betting public.
Pick: Niners
Detroit (-7.5) vs. Minnesota
Boy, that Matt Stafford sure is playing well for all his owners that drafted him and were eliminated from their league playoffs by Week 9! In any case, I’ve been a bit slow to give credit to Detroit lately. After being high on them early in the season, I jumped off the bandwagon. I think I got spooked by the logo, but this is a very different Lions team, one that nobody wants any part of in the postseason. The Vikings needed overtime to beat the Jets. I think we know which way I’m leaning here.
Pick: Lions
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Dallas
Fool me once, and all that stuff.
Pick: Eagles
New Orleans (-3.5) at Chicago
Go ahead and jump off that Saints bandwagon after their performance a week ago. We’ve seen it time and again that the best medicine for a struggling offense is a date with the Bears. I expect no less than 40 points, 400 yards of total offense, and for Drew Brees to get himself back into everyone’s good graces. Meanwhile, things couldn’t get any worse in Chicago. Matt Forte has nowhere to run, Brandon Marshall is out for the season, our pets’ HEADS ARE FALLING OFF! Just a nightmare.
Pick: Saints
BEST BETS: Rams, Falcons, Bengals, Packers
LOCK: Cincinnati Bengals
LAST WEEK
Overall:7-9
Best Bets: 3-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 116-96 (54%)
Best Bets: 31-26 (54%)
Lock of the Week: 7-7 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Packers 10-3 (1)
2. Patriots 10-3 (2)
3. Broncos 10-3 (3)
4. Seahawks 9-4 (5)
5. Cardinals 10-3 (6)
6. Eagles 9-4 (4)
7. Cowboys 9-4 (7)
8. Colts 9-4 (8)
9. Lions 9-4 (9)
10. Ravens 8-5 (15)
11. Dolphins 7-6 (11)
12. Steelers 8-5 (16)
13. Chiefs 7-6 (12)
14. Chargers 8-5 (13)
15. Bengals 8-4-1 (14)
16. 49ers 7-6 (10)
17. Bills 7-6 (17)
18. Texans 7-6 (18)
19. Rams 6-7 (19)
20. Browns 7-6 (20)
21. Panthers 4-8-1 (25)
22. Falcons 5-8 (22)
23. Vikings 6-7 (23)
24. Saints 5-8 (21)
25. Bears 5-8 (24)
26. Giants 4-9 (26)
27. Bucs 2-11 (27)
28. Jets 2-11 (28)
29. Redskins 3-10 (29)
30. Raiders 2-11 (32)
31. Titans 2-11 (30)
32. Jaguars 2-11 (31)
