I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Dallas (-3.5) at Chicago
Ever since throwing my full support behind Tony Romo and his ability to perform well in primetime (aka, “big games”), I’ve shied away from supporting him every chance I get. That ends this week. After witnessing the Chicago defense that is currently comprised of sticks and some glue, I have full faith in the Cowboys rolling here.
Pick: Cowboys
Tennessee (-0.5) vs. New York Giants
Ugh. Are they really going to make people watch this game?
Pick: Titans
Saint Louis (-2.5) at Washington
The Redskins have proven to be putrid, but I’m still not nearly comfortable enough with the Rams to lay points with them on the road.
Pick: Redskins
Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Every time each of these teams seems to hit its stride, they hit a brick wall. Now that the Bengals are coming off three straight road wins, it feels like it’s about that time for the Steelers to blow them out of the building.
Pick: Steelers
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Cleveland
The Browns are a team in turmoil, can’t decide on a QB, there’s about a 99.5% chance that they change quarterbacks at some point in this game, and they’re only going up against maybe the best signal-caller in the league. If this isn’t a blowout, I’ll eat a donut.
Pick: Colts
New Orleans (-9.5) vs. Carolina
As bad as Carolina has been and as much as the Saints have found themselves lately, I still think this is the type of line that gets reserved for the elite teams of the league. The Saints have proven a lot of things lately, one of which is a completely inability to stop anyone at all.
Pick: Panthers
Houston (-4.5) at Jacksonville
You know what interests me the most about this game? Hey look, a squirrel!
Pick: Jaguars
Detroit (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Much like the Saints giving 9.5, I feel like Detroit is a full notch below the elite teams of the league. Based on talent level, sure they SHOULD win this game going away. But when is the last time the Lions did what they were SUPPOSED to do in consecutive games?
Pick: Bucs
Minnesota (-5.5) vs. New York Jets
New York played the equivalent of Rex Ryan’s offensive wet dream on Monday night against Miami, at home, with his job on the line, and STILL lost. The job is still on the line this week, and Minnesota is kind of a pushover. If the Jets don’t cover this one, it’s safe to go against them from Weeks 15-17 automatically.
Pick: Jets
Miami (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
This feels like a field goal game to me.
Pick: Ravens
Denver (-10.5) vs. Buffalo
Buffalo’s defense is a bit underrated, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them keep this one close throughout 3.5 quarters. The final score won’t look as close as the game was, because Denver will probably be up 21-14 and then Manning will connect with any number of receivers for 4-6 more touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game. It’s just what they do.
Pick: Broncos
Arizona (-1.5) vs. Kansas City
The Arizona slide continues, as we’re finally seeing just how big of a difference there is between Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton.
Pick: Chiefs
Philadelphia (-1.5) vs. Seattle
Maybe Seattle isn’t that Jekyll and Hyde team that can only win at home anymore. Philly has looked outstanding, but this is a perfect situation for the Seahawks to get back into position to lay claim on that second bye week.
Pick: Seahawks
San Francisco (-7.5) at Oakland
It shouldn’t be, but this is a tough game to call. The Raiders seemed to be finding a little something and then all of a sudden the Rams of all teams hung fifty points on them. So it’s obviously difficult to trust them to even lose by a reasonable amount. Likewise, the Niners have been extremely unreliable and they don’t tend to blow teams out. I’ll just go on record as saying the Niners win this one with ease, but playing the percentages, I’d guess if this game got played ten times, the Raiders would cover 6-7 of them.
Pick: Raiders
New England (-3.5) at San Diego
Unfortunately, the Pats lost last week. And since they’re the world’s greatest everythings, there’s no way they lose two in a row.
Pick: Patriots
Green Bay (-11.5) vs. Atlanta
The Packers seem to be borrowing a page from the 2013 Broncos and just bludgeoning the crap out of everyone. Hey, we’re up by 35 points late in the fourth quarter? I have an idea, you go deep Jordy and we’ll go up by 42 instead. Ya know, for fun!
Pick: Packers
BEST BETS: Colts, Ravens, Seahawks, Patriots, Packers (Bonus best bet!)
LOCK: Indianapolis Colts
LAST WEEK
Overall:7-9
Best Bets: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 109-87 (55%)
Best Bets: 28-24 (53%)
Lock of the Week: 7-6 (53%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Packers 9-3 (2)
2. Patriots 9-3 (1)
3. Broncos 9-3 (3)
4. Eagles 9-3 (5)
5. Seahawks 8-4 (7)
6. Cardinals 9-3 (4)
7. Cowboys 8-4 (6)
8. Colts 8-4 (8)
9. Lions 8-4 (12)
10. 49ers 7-5 (9)
11. Dolphins 7-5 (13)
12. Chiefs 7-5 (11)
13. Chargers 8-4 (14)
14. Bengals 8-3-1 (16)
15. Ravens 7-5 (10)
16. Steelers 7-5 (15)
17. Bills 7-5 (20)
18. Texans 6-6 (18)
19. Rams 5-7 (19)
20. Browns 7-5 (17)
21. Saints 5-7 (21)
22. Falcons 5-7 (25)
23. Vikings 5-7 (24)
24. Bears 5-7 (22)
25. Panthers 3-8-1 (23)
26. Giants 3-9 (26)
27. Bucs 2-10 (27)
28. Jets 2-10 (28)
29. Redskins 3-9 (29)
30. Titans 2-10 (30)
31. Jaguars 2-10 (32)
32. Raiders 1-11 (31)
