I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Miami (-5.5) vs. Buffalo
This is probably the toughest game of the week to pick right here. Contrary to everyone else, I’m not in love with Tannehill. But we all know I’ve got no love lost for the artist formerly known as neck beard either. The line feels like it’s a couple of points too high to me, but it IS a Thursday game.Which means nobody knows what the hell is going to happen anyway.
Pick: Dolphins
New Orleans (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati
Saints at home, or Bengals in a bounce-back. Neither has proven very fruitful recently, but I like this one to become a track meet. I rarely recommend overs and unders, but I do like a lot of points in this one. With neither team able to stop each other, that feels like a one-score affair.
Pick: Bengals
Cleveland (-3.5) vs. Houston
This reminds me a lot of last week’s Jets/Steelers line. The Browns are home in this game, yet they’re only giving 3.5? Typically, a home team gets three points in the line by virtue of being home. So that means we’re to believe that the Browns are only a half point better than the Texans on a neutral field? Seems outrageous. And since it’s so outrageous, I’ll once again assume Vegas knows something we don’t, and stay far far away from this one.
Pick: Texans
Chicago (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
Nope. I don’t care if the Bears win this one by 42 points, there is nothing in my mind right now that says they have any business being favored against anyone. They simply look THAT putrid.
Pick: Vikings
Washington (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay
It’s been a running theme all season long that I’m staying away from laying big points with crummy teams, even when those crummy teams are playing sub-crummy teams. No reason to stop now.
Pick: Bucs
San Francisco (-4.5) at New York Giants
The Niners live to see another week thanks to a miracle fourth down conversion, but doesn’t it feel like this team is a powder keg ready to just explode at any moment (and not in the good way)? That being said, the G-men may provide the perfect antidote to the San Francisco woes. We’ve got a struggling Seattle team, an Arizona team that just lost its starting QB, and the Giants who are worse at stopping the run than (insert diarrhea joke here). It’ll be a sloppy game on all sides of the ball, but I think the Niners add a late FG to pull out the 27-20 win.
Pick: Niners
Kansas City (-1.5) vs. Seattle
This is one of those games that will go a long way towards whether Seattle will still be considered elite. I know I don’t like to take the road team in Buffalo or Kansas City beyond the midpoint of the season, but you don’t have a lot of chances to take the points with the Super Bowl champ either.
Pick: Seahawks
Carolina (-2.5) vs. Atlanta
We’ve seen it a million times. Team gets counted out, QB gets embarrassed on national TV, everyone leaves them for dead…and then they play a perfect game.
Pick: Panthers
Denver (-9.5) at Saint Louis
At this point, the Broncos just blow out everyone. No reason to get cute.
Pick: Broncos
San Diego (-10.5) vs. Oakland
They’re the popular pick in survivor pools, those Chargers. After all, this is a good team that has happened to hit a rough spot. Three straight losses, no running game to speak of, culminating with a dreadful effort against Miami two weeks ago…now they’ve got some rest, getting their workhorse back, and taking on their winless rivals, at home…it’s a recipe for a dominant win. But that’s why the Chargers are historically so terrifying. Just when you think Jekyll is here, along comes Mr. Hyde.
Pick: Raiders
Arizona (-1.5) vs. Detroit
Good story to see if Drew Stanton can become the new Jeff Hostetler, but the Lions are a force and now with Calvin back, they’re clicking on all cylinders. The Cards still have a shot to make noise down the stretch, but I think Detroit brings them back to earth a bit this week.
Pick: Lions
Green Bay (-5.5) vs. Philadelphia
In what may very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, I can’t in good conscience take Mark Sanchez in Lambeau Field no matter how effective he was last week. I’m laying less than a touchdown at home with Aaron Rodgers against Buttfumble, I’m taking that every time.
Pick: Packers
Indianapolis (-2.5) vs. New England
Borderline shocked by this line. I thought it was pretty common knowledge that the Pats are the best team in the league right now and that the Colts had tons of holes. It’s a big reason why I’m staying away from it, but should be the most intriguing game of the week nonetheless.
Pick: Patriots
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Tennessee
The combo is strong here. The Steelers on Monday night is typically a pretty sure thing. Add in the embarrassment of last week’s loss to the Jets, coupled with Tennessee just being kinda bad…you see where this one is going.
Pick: Steelers
BEST BETS:Seahawks, Panthers, Broncos, Lions
LOCK: Denver Broncos
LAST WEEK
Overall:6-7
Best Bets: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 83-68 (54%)
Best Bets: 22-18 (55%)
Lock of the Week: 5-5 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Patriots 7-2 (1)
2. Cardinals 8-1 (2)
3. Broncos 7-2 (3)
4. Eagles 7-2 (4)
5. Seahawks 6-3 (5)
6. Cowboys 7-3 (6)
7. Lions 7-2 (7)
8. Packers 6-3 (8)
9. Colts 6-3 (9)
10. Chiefs 6-3 (11)
11. 49ers 5-4 (12)
12. Ravens 6-4 (16)
13. Dolphins 5-4 (13)
14. Browns 6-3 (18)
15. Chargers 5-4 (15)
16. Steelers 6-4 (14)
17. Bengals 5-3-1 (10)
18. Bills 5-4 (17)
19. Saints 4-5 (19)
20. Panthers 3-6-1 (20)
21. Vikings 4-5 (23)
22. Bears 3-6 (21)
23. Rams 3-6 (22)
24. Texans 4-5 (24)
25. Redskins 3-6 (25)
26. Giants 3-6 (26)
27. Falcons 3-6 (27)
28. Jets 2-8 (28)
29. Titans 2-7 (29)
30. Bucs 1-8 (30)
31. Jaguars 1-9 (31)
32. Raiders 0-9 (32)
