I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Cincinnati (-6.5) vs. Cleveland
I can’t shake the feeling that Cleveland isn’t a “real” five win team. I realize they have a couple of wins in there that could be considered impressive, but the defense is scaring no one and Brian Hoyer seems to be getting things done with mirrors. A fully healthy A.J. Green meanwhile, takes the Bengals from solid to legit.
Pick: Bengals
Detroit (-2.5) vs. Miami
Miami proved to the world that they were a team to be reckoned with last week. They absolutely murdered the Chargers in every aspect of the game. But is Miami ready to hang with the big boys, or was that the football version of Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney in a presidential election? (Please hold your emails, it’s a joke).
Pick: Lions
Kansas City (-1.5) at Buffalo
I have this rule. I’ve probably broken it every year at some point, but it’s still a rule I like to adhere to. I don’t like laying points at Buffalo or Kansas City after November 1.
Pick: Bills
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at New York Jets
This line absolutely terrifies me. I thought maybe the decimal point was a typo, but no the Steelers really are only favored by 4.5 points. Does Vegas know something we don’t? Perhaps. I’m not betting this game, because a line that makes no sense gives me the shakes (and not in the good way). But since I must choose one…
Pick: Steelers
Baltimore (-9.5) vs. Tennessee
This feels a little bit high for a team that really doesn’t dominate anyone offensively and has been kind of sieve-like on the other side of the football too. Don’t get me wrong, the Titans may only score once in this game. But would anyone be shocked by a 16-7 outcome?
Pick: Titans
New Orleans (-4.5) vs. San Francisco
Even if the Niners weren’t a complete mess, this is Saints at home time baby!
Pick: Saints
Dallas (-5.5) at Jacksonville
Get in now while the gettin’s good. Tony Romo is just rope-a-doping everyone. This will all culminate with him doing just enough during the regular season to earn Dallas a playoff spot, then marching through the postseason and shut up all the doubters. It begins this week.
Pick: Cowboys
Atlanta (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
I don’t care how bad the Bucs are or how well-rested the Falcons are…I’m not laying points on the road with this Falcons team. They’re softer than Michael MacDonald.
Pick: Bucs
Denver (-11.5) at Oakland
Prior to last week’s bloodbath, I would have probably taken the Raiders here. Divisional game, against your big rivals, at home, playing a little better lately, little bit of hope, blah blah blah. Now? Denver was just embarrassed in front of basically the whole country, Peyton Manning is back behind Brady on the all-time list for losing that “big game”, and the Broncos need their swagger back. This has 49-7 written all over it.
Pick: Broncos
Seattle (-9.5) vs. New York Giants
I was talking this over at work yesterday. There’s a very real chance that the Seahawks could go 11-5, lose the division by a game to the 12-4 Cardinals, and have to travel on the road to New Orleans to face the 7-9 division winner Saints. Tell me you wouldn’t take Drew at home in that one! Aaaaand we come full circle. Might not happen, but cool to ponder the possibility. Oh this game? Yeah blowout city.
Pick: Seahawks
Arizona (-7.5) vs. Saint Louis
Arizona isn’t typically in the business of blowing teams out, and the Rams have this uncanny knack for hhhhanging around Mikey McD-style. This should be closer than a touchdown game.
Pick: Rams
Green Bay (-7.5) vs. Chicago
A primetime game between arguably the two biggest rivals in the history of the sport, both coming off bye weeks? This SHOULD be a one score game. However, the Bears kind of stink and the Packers are mostly awesome.
Pick: Packers
Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. Carolina
This is with the assumption that the NFC South is playing a joke on the rest of the league that four teams can actually be this bad.
Pick: Eagles
BEST BETS:Bengals, Lions, Saints, Broncos
LOCK: Denver Broncos
LAST WEEK
Overall:6-7
Best Bets: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 77-61 (55%)
Best Bets: 20-16 (55%)
Lock of the Week: 4-5 (44%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Patriots 7-2 (4)
2. Cardinals 7-1 (2)
3. Broncos 6-2 (1)
4. Eagles 6-2 (3)
5. Seahawks 5-3 (7)
6. Cowboys 6-3 (5)
7. Lions 6-2 (9)
8. Packers 5-3 (10)
9. Colts 6-3 (11)
10. Bengals 5-2-1 (12)
11. Chiefs 5-3 (13)
12. 49ers 4-4 (8)
13. Dolphins 5-3 (15)
14. Steelers 6-3 (16)
15. Chargers 5-4 (6)
16. Ravens 5-4 (14)
17. Bills 5-3 (17)
18. Browns 5-3 (19)
19. Saints 4-4 (20)
20. Panthers 3-5-1 (18)
21. Bears 3-5 (21)
22. Rams 3-5 (25)
23. Vikings 4-5 (26)
24. Texans 4-5 (22)
25. Redskins 3-6 (23)
26. Giants 3-5 (24)
27. Falcons 2-6 (27)
28. Jets 1-8 (28)
29. Titans 2-6 (29)
30. Bucs 1-7 (30)
31. Jaguars 1-8 (31)
32. Raiders 0-8 (32)
