The Profit: Week 9

I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!

New Orleans (-1.5) at Carolina
I’m really tempted to take the Saints here because they just looked so dominant on Sunday night against one of the league’s better teams. But if I’m sticking with the home/road thing, I can’t allow my judgment to be clouded by one game. Speaking of clouded judgment, on a side note: I was pulled over the other day. I told the cop I was distracted because an Ariana Grande song was playing on my radio and I was daydreaming about her butt while I was rolling through the stop sign. Let me off with a warning. What does this have to do with football? Nothing. But TRY to tell me you didn’t just get distracted as all hell just now too…
Pick: Panthers

Cincinnati (-11.5) vs. Jacksonville
Gio Bernard or not, the Bengals are going to rip the Jags in this one. This is one of those games where people will outsmart themselves by taking the Jags and then around 1:15 on Sunday they’ll wonder what they were thinking when Cincy is up by three touchdowns already.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is terrible, we know that. Cleveland isn’t half-bad. But they’re not really half good either, and this is kind of a lot of points for them. I really don’t see anybody blowing anyone out in this one, so I’ll take nearly a touchdown sure!
Pick: Bucs

Minnesota (-2.5) vs. Washington
This is important, because you don’t want to get caught up in thinking the Redskins are actually good based on Monday night. We had a lot of factors coming together…the bitter rivalry…McCoy homecoming…Romo in prime time (and an injury)…Jon Gruden verbally fellating his brother and his brilliance from the broadcast booth…it was a perfect storm of events leading to that win. But the simple fact is, the Redskins aren’t any good.
Pick: Vikings

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Houston
I like that I can win this game if Philly wins by a field goal, since that’s probably what’s going to happen. Gotta make up for losing due to that Seattle hook from last week (no, I’m not bitter).
Pick: Eagles

Kansas City (-9.5) vs. New York Jets
Alex Smith may not be 100%, the Jets are everyone’s favorite team to pick on, things in New York are a mess…yeah looks pretty ripe for a close game if not an outright upset.
Pick: Jets

Dallas (-4.5) vs. Arizona
For the same reason that we shouldn’t overrate Washington based on one game, we also shouldn’t underrate Dallas. This is the toughest game of the week to pick for me, because while both of these teams are probably a little bit overrated right now, they are also both legit playoff and Super Bowl contenders. I wish I could pick the Cowboys to win by 4.5 points, but since I can’t I’ll take the points and assume it’s a field goal game. But don’t be shocked if the Cowboys pull away, just a rough game to pick.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami (-1.5) vs. San Diego
Yeah, there’s no way the Chargers don’t win this game. Miami has played pretty well, but I’d be shocked if Tannehill can match Rivers score-for-score.
Pick: Chargers

San Francisco (-9.5) vs. Saint Louis
The Niners are rested and more importantly a WHOLE LOT BETTER than the Rams. Don’t try to get cute here. This one is blowout city.
Pick: Niners

Denver (-3.5) at New England
“Nothing beats that good home dooooggggggg…”
Pick: Patriots

Seattle (-14.5) vs. Oakland
Well, I pushed in my chips with Seattle last week and they let me down by half a point. I actually felt for the first time in my life, like a team was trying to lose. They just can’t be this bad, I thought. The problem is, this spread is made up entirely of last year’s warm and fuzzies. There’s no way a team scuffling like they are would be more than a two touchdown favorite against anyone else if it wasn’t for that, and I’m starting to get scared that the 2013 Seahawks have caused the 2014 Seahawks to be a bit overrated.This is the last week I’m putting my trust in them if they don’t show up BIG.
Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs. Baltimore
This is a tough one, but only because the Ravens won the earlier matchup. These guys usually split the difference each year, but with Baltimore coming off a divisional loss and Pittsburgh coming off a huge win, I know better than to assume they will keep heading in those same directions. Usually whatever you THINK is going to happen when these two hook up, the opposite tends to come true. Like when DeNiro and Pacino made Righteous Kill. Random? Sure. But it fits.
Pick: Ravens

Indianapolis (-3.5) at New York Giants
A couple of people wrote to me earlier this year after the Chargers/Seahawks game and said they wish they knew I was at the game so they could have bought me a beer. No that’s not true, nobody wants to meet me I don’t know why I said that. But I’ll be at THIS game if any FBGs in the area want to email me to come talk football pregame at our tailgate. During the game? No, during the game I’ll be several Jamesons deep trying to find a way to make this game interesting. Because the Colts are going to win by about four hundred and twenty-teen points.
Pick: Colts

BEST BETS:Bengals, Chargers, Ravens, Colts
LOCK: San Diego Chargers

LAST WEEK

Overall:8-7
Best Bets: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1

YEAR TO DATE

Overall: 71-54 (56%)
Best Bets: 19-13 (59%)
Lock of the Week: 4-4 (50%)

POWER RANKINGS

Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Broncos 6-1 (1)
2. Cardinals 6-1 (4)
3. Eagles 5-2 (3)
4. Patriots 6-2 (9)
5. Cowboys 6-2 (2)
6. Chargers 5-3 (5)
7. Seahawks 4-3 (7)
8. 49ers 4-3 (8)
9. Lions 6-2 (12)
10. Packers 5-3 (6)
11. Colts 5-3 (10)
12. Bengals 4-2-1 (14)
13. Chiefs 4-3 (13)
14. Ravens 5-3 (11)
15. Dolphins 4-3 (16)
16. Steelers 5-3 (18)
17. Bills 5-3 (20)
18. Panthers 3-4-1 (15)
19. Browns 4-3 (19)
20. Saints 3-4 (22)
21. Bears 3-5 (17)
22. Texans 4-4 (23)
23. Redskins 3-5 (27)
24. Giants 3-4 (24)
25. Rams 2-5 (21)
26. Vikings 3-5 (26)
27. Falcons 2-6 (25)
28. Jets 1-7 (28)
29. Titans 2-6 (29)
30. Bucs 1-6 (30)
31. Jaguars 1-7 (31)
32. Raiders 0-7 (32)