I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Denver (-7.5) vs. San Diego
I’ve listened to a few people this week who think this line is a point too high. I say you didn’t watch the Chargers defense give up 47 third down conversions to the freaking Chiefs last week. Oh, and the Chargers are down BOTH defensive backs? Well, at least they had three days to prepare for only the best quarterback of all time. This one’s gonna get ugly.
Pick: Broncos
Detroit (-3.5) at Atlanta (*London)
It’s essentially a neutral field. The Lions are a TON better than the Falcons. If they don’t cover this game, they should be embarrassed for themselves.
Pick: Lions
Miami (-4.5) at Jacksonville
Jacksonville did the whole “play well” thing last week. I’m not seeing a way they keep that up for two straight weeks.
Pick: Dolphins
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Baltimore
People are going to put a ton of stock into what has happened the past few weeks, and sure there’s good reason. The Bengals couldn’t have tried to look worse if they were a forty-something actress who once starred in Jerry Maguire, while the Ravens have looked really impressive in beating up on…um, the Bucs and Falcons. Yeah let’s not forget the Bengals are the team that beat Baltimore in Maryland by a touchdown in Week 1.
Pick: Bengals
Seattle (-4.5) at Carolina
I’m not sure we’re really giving enough credit (maybe that’s the wrong word) for just how bad the Carolina Panthers are. They’re really bad!
Pick: Seahawks
Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Tampa shouldn’t be favored against anyone. I don’t care. I’m taking the points.
Pick: Vikings
New York Jets (-3.5) vs. Buffalo
Yeah, the Bills are winning this game outright.
Pick: Bills
Kansas City (-6.5) vs. Saint Louis
Kansas City can’t play a more perfect game than they did last week, and yet they still only squeaked out a win. The Rams probably played their best game of the season, but they have a little spunk to them. I can see them at least hanging around, because Kansas City doesn’t really blow anyone out (well except the Patriots, but they stink).
Pick: Rams
Houston (-1.5) at Tennessee
Houston isn’t good enough to be laying points on the road against just about anyone.
Pick: Titans
New England (-6.5) vs. Chicago
Oh look, it’s a marquee franchise that was supposed to be good but really hasn’t been all that impressive so far and I have little hope of them making a deep playoff run. Oooh, see what I did there?
Pick: Patriots
Arizona (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia
With a week of rest, I think Philly shows up with a good gameplan and steals this one. I do think Arizona is a solid team and I’ve thought it all season long, but I just feel like the Eagles are a slightly better version of Arizona. The Cardinals are about due to take a little step back now that people are finally noticing them too.
Pick: Eagles
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Pittsburgh
Colts are rolling right now, and Pittsburgh would’ve been coming off a very bad loss to the Texans had it not been for a highly fortuitous 3-minute stretch just before halftime. I don’t really see how they hang with Luck and company in this one.
Pick: Colts
Cleveland (-7.5) vs. Oakland
If the Browns had won last week, this would be an easy call to take Oakland. But the Browns lost, meaning everyone in Cleveland is giving up on them again, meaning they’ll probably show up and play their best game of the year. And then when people get back on-board, they’ll crap the bed and let everyone down. That’s how Cleveland does things. So I’m taking them here despite such a large spread. Somebody give me a good reason not to.
Pick: Browns
New Orleans (-1.5) vs. Green Bay
Tough call here. On the one hand, the Saints are pretty obviously un-good. But they’re home. Green Bay has been outstanding basically all year. But the Saints are home. Honestly, just being home is probably not a good enough reason to assume the Saints will show up against a very good Packer team. I wouldn’t bet against it, but it’s dumb logic. And while that’s usually my specialty, I’m going against the grain this time.
Pick: Packers
Dallas (-9.5) vs. Washington
I really like Dallas a lot, and I’ve had many arguments over the last few years (and especially the last few weeks) about Tony Romo being good. And I think the Cowboys win this one too. But this is a huge spread for a Monday night game between classic divisional rivals, and I’m still just not totally comfortable with the Dallas defense yet.
Pick: Redskins
BEST BETS: Lions, Seahawks, Bills, Colts
LOCK: Seattle Seahawks
LAST WEEK
Overall:9-6
Best Bets: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 63-47 (57%)
Best Bets: 18-10 (64%)
Lock of the Week: 4-3 (57%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Broncos 5-1 (1)
2. Cowboys 6-1 (4)
3. Eagles 5-1 (3)
4. Cardinals 5-1 (5)
5. Chargers 5-2 (2)
6. Packers 5-2 (8)
7. Seahawks 3-3 (6)
8. 49ers 4-3 (7)
9. Patriots 5-2 (9)
10. Colts 5-2 (11)
11. Ravens 5-2 (12)
12. Lions 5-2 (14)
13. Chiefs 3-3 (15)
14. Bengals 3-2-1 (10)
15. Panthers 3-3-1 (13)
16. Dolphins 3-3 (23)
17. Bears 3-4 (16)
18. Steelers 4-3 (18)
19. Browns 3-3 (17)
20. Bills 4-3 (20)
21. Rams 2-4 (29)
22. Saints 2-4 (19)
23. Texans 3-4 (21)
24. Giants 3-4 (22)
25. Falcons 2-5 (24)
26. Vikings 2-5 (25)
27. Redskins 2-5 (27)
28. Jets 1-6 (28)
29. Titans 2-5 (26)
30. Bucs 1-5 (30)
31. Jaguars 1-6 (31)
32. Raiders 0-6 (32)
