I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston
The Thursday night games have been beyond awful so far. Each week, it’s more of the same. One team is the jazzed up husband, ready to pounce. But the other team is the wife who had way too much wine, can’t even take her shoes off, and pretty much just lays there. Which of these teams do you think is more likely to pass out on national television?
Pick: Colts
Green Bay (-3.5) at Miami
The Packers seem to be just about hitting their stride, while Miami is going unnoticed at least in the early going. They’ve been about as mediocre as you can be. This isn’t the time to get cute and expect them to show up just because they’re at home.
Pick: Packers
New England (-3.5) at Buffalo
I know what I saw last week, and it was the evidence that New England isn’t dead. And frankly, I’m surprised that this line isn’t much higher after what we saw last week. Must be that the rest of the country already knows that the Pats still just really aren’t very good.
Pick: Bills
Cincinnati (-7.5) vs. Carolina
Injuries are starting to mount for the Bengals, and this line was a little bit high to begin with anyway. Two fairly solid teams who play a very similar style tend to play closer games than a touchdown differential. Cincy likely wins, but more like a field goal difference.
Pick: Panthers
Cleveland (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh
I know the past has very little to do with these teams now, but I just can’t get past the Browns being favored over the Steelers. Call me on Monday if I’m wrong, but I don’t see the Steelers losing this game. Blame it on the last two decades.
Pick: Steelers
Baltimore (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
My mom always told me, if you don’t have anything nice to say about a football game…
Pick: Ravens
Tennessee (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville
Again, the Jaguars are not very good. But for most of their games, they tend to at least give off the impression of competing. Or maybe they’re a stripper on the Tuesday afternoon shift and I’m just trying to convince myself that I’m seeing something that’s not there. Either way, the Titans couldn’t seal the deal a week ago and this line feels a few points too high. Let’s keep in mind, they stink too.
Pick: Jaguars
Detroit (-2.5) at Minnesota
Just when you think you can trust the Lions, they go and poop the bed at home in a very winnable game. This is a tough game to call, because we really don’t know how a Jim Caldwell-coached team will react to adversity. Most likely, they will just feature thousands of blank stares all week in a very prominent way. Additionally, we don’t know how Teddy Bridgewater will perform in his first game back. I’ve got to think the Lions are good enough to put away an inferior opponent with a rookie quarterback, especially now that they seem to have their running game back in the fold. This is tenuous at best though…
Pick: Lions
Denver (-8.5) at New York Jets
The line feels a little bit low. I feel like Denver should probably be favored by somewhere around six scores. Seriously, what is going on here? I always say, lines that make no sense have to give you pause and reconsider when it feels like free money. But this? This is free money! (commence a 24-20 Jets victory in 3…2…1…)
Pick: Broncos
San Diego (-7.5) at Oakland
The Chargers have finally become a well-rounded team, and the type of team that puts away inferior opponents and just simply buries them. The Raiders have given some trouble in recent seasons even when the Chargers have been good and Oakland has been Oakland. But I’m not really seeing an area where the Raiders can inflict much damage this time around. San Diego’s WR corps is a bit banged-up, but it honestly shouldn’t even matter. If what we’ve seen against Jacksonville and the Jets is any indication, this has double digit victory written all over it.
Pick: Chargers
Arizona (-3.5) vs. Washington
Arizona is coming off a bad loss, where they hung tough for awhile and STILL got its doors blown off. Washington stinks. What more do you need to know?
Pick: Cardinals
Seattle (-8.5) vs. Dallas
The Seawhawks are the best team in the league, sure. But there’s definitely something missing from the run this time around. They don’t appear to be going out and burying teams these days. Now that being said, Tony Romo will probably go out there and throw four pick-sixes this week. But I’m trusting that Dallas is legit and that they can hang with Seattle for at least awhile in this one. Back door cover isn’t out of the question either.
Pick: Cowboys
Atlanta (-3.5) vs. Chicago
Here we have a couple of teams who appear to be among the softest in the league. The Falcons can’t seem to get out of their own way unless they are at home, and the Bears are an insult to every great defense of the Bears past. Only seven teams have allowed more points than they have this season, and most of them are close enough that when Chicago allows Atlanta to hang 40 more on them this week, they could be bottom-3.
Pick: Falcons
Philadelphia (-2.5) vs. New York Giants
Division rivalry games typically remain close affairs, particularly when both teams are complete frauds whose records are far better than the actual teams. I’d like to say that the winner of this game will have proven they are legit, but honestly when a fake good team beats another fake good team, the net result is the status quo. I thought the Eagles were actually good up until two weeks ago, but it’s not so. The Giants have a little something going on, but I’m going to need to see a whole lot more of what they showed in last week’s 3rd and 4th quarters and a whole lot less of the first half.
Pick: Giants
San Francisco (-3.5) at Saint Louis
Makes no sense.
Pick: Niners
BEST BETS:Colts, Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals
LOCK: Indianapolis Colts
LAST WEEK
Overall:7-8
Best Bets: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 45-35 (56%)
Best Bets: 12-8 (60%)
Lock of the Week: 3-2 (60%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Seahawks 3-1 (1)
2. Broncos 3-1 (3)
3. Chargers 4-1 (5)
4. Eagles 4-1 (6)
5. Cardinals 3-1 (4)
6. Bengals 3-1 (2)
7. 49ers 3-2 (9)
8. Packers 3-2 (10)
9. Patriots 3-2 (14)
10. Cowboys 4-1 (11)
11. Colts 3-2 (15)
12. Ravens 3-2 (7)
13. Steelers 3-2 (16)
14. Panthers 3-2 (17)
15. Chiefs 2-3 (13)
16. Bills 3-2 (20)
17. Lions 3-2 (8)
18. Bears 2-3 (12)
19. Saints 2-3 (19)
20. Texans 3-2 (18)
21. Browns 2-2 (24)
22. Giants 3-2 (25)
23. Dolphins 2-2 (23)
24. Falcons 2-3 (22)
25. Vikings 2-3 (21)
26. Titans 1-4 (26)
27. Redskins 1-4 (27)
28. Jets 1-4 (28)
29. Rams 1-3 (29)
30. Bucs 1-4 (30)
31. Jaguars 0-5 (31)
32. Raiders 0-4 (32)
