I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end. Let’s get to it!
Washington (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
The half point scares me a little bit, but I don’t think there’s any question that the Redskins have been the superior team this season by FAR. The Giants were able to finally win a game, courtesy of a Houston team without its best offensive player. Tough divisional matchups are typically close games (or maybe I made that up), but I like Washington to stay in control of this one throughout.
Pick: Redskins
Indianapolis (-7.5) vs. Tennessee
The Colts will win this game for sure, but it’ll be by less than a touchdown. Can’t put too much stock into Indy’s win last week or Tennessee’s bad loss. Try to keep in mind how bad the Colt defense can be, as well as the fact that Tennessee’s offense actually looked pretty good until they got annihilated by a good Bengals defense. This one will be closer than it probably should be.
Pick: Titans
Baltimore (-3.5) vs. Carolina
Much like the Colts/Titans game, the recency bias will play a role here. The Ravens will be a bit overrated based on last week and the Panthers will be a bit underrated. Carolina ML is actually the play here.
Pick: Panthers
Houston (-3.5) vs. Buffalo
After giving up 30 to the previously-hapless Giants, I’m not sure the Texans deserve to be favorites against anyone…
Pick: Bills
Chicago (-1.5) vs. Green Bay
The definition of insanity rule is in full effect here. I just can’t help but feel like the Packers are “due”. Obviously that’s intelligent gambling strategy.
Pick: Packers
Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Every time you think the Steelers are about to blow the doors off of a season, they come crashing back down to earth with a thud. This week, that thud is named the Bucs.
Pick: Bucs
Miami (-4.5) at Oakland
When you’re having issues even deciding who your quarterback is going to be, I’m not giving you any favoritism when you’re playing a road game 3,000 miles away.
Pick: Raiders
Detroit (-1.5) at New York Jets
Matt Stafford will be as good this week, as he was bad last week. And last week his team won by 12. The Jets have a tough time covering even average teams. I’m pretty sure every Detroit receiver will go over 1,000 yards in this game.
Pick: Lions
San Diego (-13.5) vs. Jacksonville
Keep that train rolling. There’s no excuse for the Chargers to win this game by anything less than two touchdowns. Bortles is a bit of a wild card, but if the Chargers want to be considered amongst the elite, they need to bury teams like this.
Pick: Chargers
Atlanta (-2.5) at Minnesota
This is the toughest game of the week for me. Nobody knows what to expect out of Bridgewater, but likewise the Falcons are slowly turning into that Seahawks/Saints type of team that you can’t trust outside of their home stadium. They’re talking up the rookie in Minnesota, so let’s see what he’s got.
Pick: Vikings
San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Philadelphia
What the heck have you seen from the 49ers this season to suggest they should be nearly a touchdown favorite against a very good Eagles team? This is one of the oddest lines of the week. Are we to believe that the Niners are roughly a field goal better than Philly on a neutral field.Maybe at some point, but certainly not right now.
Pick: Eagles
New Orleans (-3.5) at Dallas
Until further notice, I’m not taking the Saints on the road under any circumstances. Prove it to me first, and then we’ll talk.
Pick: Cowboys
New England (-3.5) at Kansas City
Here’s a matchup of two of the fakest good teams from last year. I didn’t expect much from either one this season, although I figured New England would win their division by default. To this point, looks like things are right on schedule. PS – I didn’t really just take Tony Romo against Drew Brees in that last game, right? Tell me I didn’t.
Pick: Patriots
BEST BETS:Panthers, Lions, Chargers, Eagles
LOCK: Lions
LAST WEEK
Overall: 11-5
Best Bets: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 31-21 (59%)
Best Bets: 7-5 (58%)
Lock of the Week: 2-1 (66%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Seahawks 2-1 (3)
2. Bengals 3-0 (2)
3. Broncos 2-1 (1)
4. Eagles 3-0 (5)
5. Cardinals 3-0 (6)
6. Chargers 2-1 (7)
7. Bears 2-1 (8)
8. Patriots 2-1 (10)
9. Ravens 2-1 (13)
10. Steelers 2-1 (14)
11. Panthers 2-1 (4)
12. Lions 2-1 (15)
13. 49ers 1-2 (9)
14. Packers 1-2 (11)
15. Saints 1-2 (17)
16. Colts 1-2 (18)
17. Cowboys 2-1 (19)
18. Texans 2-1 (12)
19. Bills 2-1 (16)
20. Falcons 2-1 (22)
21. Titans 1-2 (20)
22. Chiefs 1-2 (27)
23. Dolphins 1-2 (21)
24. Browns 1-2 (23)
25. Redskins 1-2 (24)
26. Giants 1-2 (28)
27. Jets 1-2 (25)
28. Vikings 1-2 (26)
29. Rams 1-2 (29)
30. Raiders 0-3 (30)
31. Jaguars 0-3 (31)
32. Bucs 0-3 (32)
