Let’s just get one thing out of the way. As Joe Bryant says in the Random Shots column, there are a lot of serious, informative things this site gives you. Random Shots is not one of them. Let me take it a step further. There are a lot more serious, informative things in Random Shots than there are in here. That being said, it’s a lot of fun to write it and I hope it’s at least a little bit of fun to read it.
In each of the last two seasons, I’ve correctly picked the Super Bowl participants in the preseason, only to see my projected Super Bowl loser actually end up winning the game. Therefore, I’m going to predict my Chargers to lose every Super Bowl until the end of time.
An intro to those of you who are new to the site or at least new to this piece. There are weekly picks against the spread, accompanied by Power Rankings. There is typically a brief description below each game matchup in which I may or may not awkwardly attempt to compare teams’ collective strengths to the quality of the photographs in last week’s Fappening. And as a bonus, for the preseason version of this piece, I essentially give you guys millions of dollars in winnings by letting you know exactly how the season is going to play out. It almost seems like Marty McFly loaned me a sports almanac with some of these. Let’s get to it!
2014 Predictions
* denotes wild card
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins
I really wish that just about any other team played in the AFC East. The Patriots have been pretty overrated going on five plus years now, but nobody can seem to get out of their own way to dethrone them. The Jets had a chance until their defensive backfield pulled a Homeland and inexplicably fell apart. Buffalo has a nice defense, some nice running backs, a couple of solid skill position wideouts, and a quarterback who will prevent them from reaching single-digit losses. Miami has the quarterback but precious little else. The defense is mediocre and the offensive line is abysmal. Brutal division.
AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cincinnati Bengals *
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Baltimore Ravens
Disclaimer: I don’t know why I’m picking Pittsburgh to finish ahead of Cincinnati (get used to that type of logic all season long). The Bengals are better at just about every spot on the field, but the way the season ended last year had to leave a bad taste. Also exit Jay Gruden, and I think we can expect the team may take a little while to gel. The Ravens took a bit step back last year, and they’ll take another this year as the little brother Browns finally make a move past them. Johnny Football will be in the starting lineup by the quarter pole of the season, and they won’t look back.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have Andrew Luck, and that’s all well and good. And Houston’s offense is putrid for the most part. Those things are supposedly universal truths. But here’s the thing. Luck hasn’t really been all that good. I’m not breaking any news here, the math backs it up and plenty of articles have been written about his lack of efficiency. But the bigger issue to me is that offensive line. It still hasn’t gotten any good. I think Trent Richardson will plow through enough would-be tacklers to become fantasy relevant again, but the rest is suspect. Houston’s defense, meanwhile, will be on the field a lot and may score more points than the offense. But they’ll be nasty. Tennessee will take a big step forward with the Whiz, and almost all of their offensive starters will be fantasy relevant. The same can’t be said of Jacksonville (although to be honest, I did a draft last night in which four Jaguar receivers were selected…granted, it was a Jaguars wide receivers moms league but still).
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Denver Broncos *
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders
Look, every year crazy stuff happens in the NFL alright? I realize Denver got a lot better but in my opinion so did San Diego. Plus my brother drafted Peyton Manning in his lone fantasy league and there’s no bigger mush on the planet than my bro Sean. Manning should be in a full body cast no later than Week 3. Kansas City was a fake good team last year and only got worse. Oakland was an authentic bad team last year and didn’t get better enough. KC will be closer to Oakland than they’ll be to San Diego.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
This felt like a “by default” pick at first, but I’ve come around on the Eagles. The Chip Kelly era is in full swing, and while I don’t think the offense will be anywhere near as efficient this time around, it will still be very very good. I also don’t see any of these other teams coming remotely close to contending. Dallas gets 2nd place by virtue of at least having a big offense. I’m sure they’ll go 7-9 or 8-8 again and lose a bunch of 42-38 games and Tony Romo will throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns and Dallas fans will still blame him. I almost can’t wait to see him off the Cowboys and people to see how difficult it is to find a QB as good as he’s been. The Giants and Redkins offenses look like they both took a step back, and honestly it’s not like there was much more room for them to fall. Imagine Madonna with a broken nose, and you get the idea.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions *
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay is strong, but their strength lies just as much in the other divisional foes’ weaknesses. The Packer and Bear offenses can go toe to toe with anyone, but Green Bay’s defense is a TINY bit better. On top of that, the Chicago defense just isn’t going to be close to good enough to contend most weeks. Detroit’s the big wild card team here to me. I like the defense, LOVE the offense (Matt Stafford my #2 fantasy QB), and they can make a lot of noise. My biggest issue is whether Jim Caldwell can wake up enough times during the game to get the play call in on time. Minnesota rounds out arguably the strongest division top to bottom in all of football. Adrian Peterson may play for another last place team, but it’ll probably be the best last place team in all of football. Yay moral victories!
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are good, but even if they weren’t this would be a case of “put any team in football in their place and that team wins this division”. The Saints HAVE to win this division. I realize Carolina has a nasty defense, but they lost their offensive…um…everything. Cam will be barely rosterable by Week 5. Tampa Bay made some nice strides and seem to be building something positive, but I think they’re a year away from serious playoff contention. Atlanta was terrible a year ago, lost Tony Gonzalez and their left tackle, and I don’t see very many areas of improvement to that line as a whole.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks *
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Saint Louis Rams
I know, Seattle is the greatest and blah blah blah. Let’s not forget, they were barely better than San Francisco in the NFC Title game. And I don’t think Seattle really improved in the offseason while San Francisco did (at least until all their players started getting injured or suspended or both). But it just feels like this has been building for a few years, and they’re ready to climb the mountain. Poor Arizona, which is a really really good team stuck in a division with possibly two of the best teams in the league. Andre Ellington in the third round? YES IN ALL OF MY LEAGUES BUT ONE! Saint Louis is a lot like Carolina and Houston. Excellent defense, lots of dynamic players, but it’ll have trouble covering up for an anemic offense.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Denver over San Diego
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
San Francisco over Detroit
SUPER BOWL
San Francisco over Denver
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
- Seahawks 0-0 (-)
- Broncos 0-0 (-)
- 49ers 0-0 (-)
- Patriots 0-0 (-)
- Chargers 0-0 (-)
- Eagles 0-0 (-)
- Saints 0-0 (-)
- Packers 0-0 (-)
- Colts 0-0 (-)
- Bengals 0-0 (-)
- Panthers 0-0 (-)
- Steelers 0-0 (-)
- Cardinals 0-0 (-)
- Bears 0-0 (-)
- Lions 0-0 (-)
- Ravens 0-0 (-)
- Texans 0-0 (-)
- Chiefs 0-0 (-)
- Titans 0-0 (-)
- Jets 0-0 (-)
- Cowboys 0-0 (-)
- Rams 0-0 (-)
- Vikings 0-0 (-)
- Falcons 0-0 (-)
- Giants 0-0 (-)
- Redskins 0-0 (-)
- Bills 0-0 (-)
- Dolphins 0-0 (-)
- Bucs 0-0 (-)
- Browns 0-0 (-)
- Raiders 0-0 (-)
- Jaguars 0-0 (-)
Week 1 Picks
* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.
Seattle (-5.5) vs. Green Bay
PICK: Packers
Chicago (-6.5) vs. Buffalo
PICK: Bears
New York Jets (-5.5) vs. Oakland
PICK: Raiders
Kansas City (-3.5) vs. Tennessee
PICK: Titans
Saint Louis (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
PICK: Vikings
Philadelphia (-10.5) vs. Jacksonville
PICK: Jaguars
Houston (-2.5) vs. Washington
PICK: Redskins
Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs. Cleveland
PICK: Browns
New England (-4.5) at Miami
PICK: Dolphins
Baltimore (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati
PICK: Bengals
New Orleans (-2.5) at Atlanta
PICK: Saints
Tampa Bay (-1.5) vs. Carolina
PICK: Bucs
San Francisco (-5.5) at Dallas
PICK: Niners
Denver (-7.5) vs. Indianapolis
PICK: Broncos
Detroit (-5.5) vs. New York Giants
PICK: Lions
Cardinals (-3.5) vs. San Diego
PICK: Chargers
BEST BETS:Bears, Bengals, Niners, Lions
LOCK: Cincinnati Bengals
RECORD
Last Week: 0-0
Year To Date: 0-0
Best Bets: 0-0
Lock of the Week: 0-0
2013 RECORD (including postseason)
Overall: 146-117 (55%)
Best Bets: 39-40 (49%)
Lock of the Week: 13-8 (62%)
