Photo: Imagn Images

December is the month where trading takes a backseat and the major focus is on winning your playoff matches. If you didn’t make the playoffs, the focus is on watching the college bowl games to get an idea of who you might target in the draft to get there the next season. Since the trading deadline has already passed for the vast majority of leagues, this month’s dynasty trade value chart won’t break values down into 2019 and future value. The values listed are purely for 2020 and beyond. If you are in the rare league that allows trades during the fantasy playoffs, use common sense to determine what value there is in any possible playoff boost a player might provide and consider that their short-term value in addition to the 2020 values you will see listed below.

We will go position-by-position to discuss the most interesting decisions dynasty owners will likely face as we head into the decision. The goal will be to highlight some spots where you might be able to sell high or buy low on certain players by predicting who will be the bigger offseason risers and fallers. Lastly, the article will end with 2020 rookie pick values and give you a short list of players you should focus on in college bowl games to start preparing for rookie draft season.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Between monthly updates, you can check out our staff dynasty rankings. You can also always ask me questions on twitter (@hindery) or email (hindery@footballguys.com) to see how much player values have changed since this update or even just to bounce around trade ideas.

Quarterback

Valuing Lamar Jackson

It will be fascinating to see what consensus emerges as to Jackson’s dynasty trade value and where he ranks versus other top position players this offseason. Heading into December, he has pretty clearly overtaken Patrick Mahomes II as the top dynasty quarterback and the clear 1.01 in Superflex startup drafts. Through 12 games, Jackson is second in the NFL in touchdown passes (25) behind only Russell Wilson (26). The strong passing numbers combined with his crazy production as a runner (984 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns) have made Jackson a major fantasy force.

To try to figure out where Jackson should be valued in single quarterback leagues, we have to put into context how valuable Jackson has been to date. Let’s quickly review one way we can do that. As I’ve written about many times in the past, the lens through which I prefer to value players is by viewing their fantasy value each season in terms of how much they are outscoring a replacement-level player at their position. I define replacement level as slightly below the worst starter in the league. So for a 12-team league that starts one quarterback, I would use QB15 as my rough estimate of replacement-level.

Scoring systems vary slightly at quarterback but in basically all formats, Jackson is outscoring the QB15 by 10 or 11 points per game through 13 weeks. Let’s call it 10.5 PPG above replacement level. This ranks right up there with Peyton Manning’s 2013 season as the most valuable fantasy performance by a quarterback in recent history. Jackson is even on pace to top Patrick Mahomes II’ monster 2018 fantasy season.

The only position players whose single-season fantasy value in 2019 (PPR scoring) who can compare to Jackson are Christian McCaffrey (18), Michael Thomas (11) and Dalvin Cook (11). In other words, if we were doing a 2019 redraft league knowing what we know now, Jackson should be the 1.04. With Cook’s injury last night, we can probably make the case he should be 1.03.

So why is it that Jackson doesn’t seem to carry anywhere near this type of trade value in dynasty leagues? Why isn’t he yet getting talked about as a first-round pick in dynasty startups that will be starting soon?

There are two possible explanations for why Jackson doesn’t seem to be getting any mention as a top-10 dynasty asset in single quarterback leagues. First, it might be a simple market inefficiency. Jackson provides a huge weekly advantage for your fantasy team, won’t turn 23-years old until January, has no real injury history, and plays the position with the longest career span. Second, it could be that the public is rightly skeptical of Jackson’s ability to keep this pace up. We have seen a number of quarterbacks in recent years with somewhat unique skill sets who put up their career-best numbers (in terms of PPG) in their first full season as starters. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes II each came back to earth at least to some extent after huge first seasons. Defenses adjust and injuries happen.

Dynasty owners will have to decide which of those two schools of thought they think is accurate because, funny as it may sound, there might actually be a buy-low window on Jackson right now if you think he can come anywhere near repeating his 2019 numbers moving forward.

Rookie Values

Another huge decision dynasty owners are going to face this offseason is how to value the members of the 2019 rookie quarterback. It could be a make or break decision in Superflex leagues. We saw this play out with the 2018 class. Baker Mayfield shot up into the first round of 2019 Superflex startups, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen were popular picks in the 4th-5th round range, and Josh Rosen was a 7th-round pick. Jackson ended up being a home run pick. You got nice value with Allen. Darnold is probably TBD due to mono. Mayfield and Rosen picks blew up in your face to some extent.

The first decision will be on how to value Kyler Murray. The prediction here is that he will settle in as the dynasty QB4 if his season continues on the current trajectory over the final month. If the Cardinals make some splashy additions to the offensive line and at wide receiver, he could even push towards QB3.

Superflex dynasty owners should also make it a point to try to watch Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, and Gardner Minshew in December. Tough buy, sell, or hold calls will have to be made on each of these guys in the offseason.

Running Back

The McCaffrey gap

We will have to see how the final month plays out but it looks like McCaffrey is going to outscore the RB2 by 150+ points this season (PPR). He is only 23-years old and has no real injury history. In terms of dynasty assets, it is hard to think of how any player could have much higher trade value than McCaffrey should right now. Thus, it was very surprising to see that in some recent mocks he is still going behind Saquon Barkley. Don’t get me wrong, Barkley is a very talented player who is a year younger and we can excuse his poor fantasy production to some extent this year due to his situation and the ankle injury. However, this shouldn’t be all that close. McCaffrey is on pace for 1,500+ rushing yards, nearly 900 receiving yards, 100 catches, and 21 touchdowns. The numbers are mind boggling. It is always hard to value a player when his production is such an outlier. In McCaffrey’s case, it makes sense to err on the side of overvaluing him. He provides such a massive weekly advantage that it would take something crazy for me to trade him away.

The Cleveland conundrum

Since Kareem Hunt returned in Week 10, he has 20 catches to just 6 for Nick Chubb. Chubb has only outscored Hunt in PPR scoring by 1.3 points total over the four-game stretch. So far, it hasn’t been a disaster for Chubb owners with both running backs producing borderline RB1 numbers at the same time. However, they’ve done so in part due to some soft matchups. It is fair to wonder if the Cleveland offense is good enough to support two RB1s over the medium term. It looks likely Hunt will be back in Cleveland next season because there is no reason why Cleveland wouldn’t make him a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent and it is hard to see a team willing to make Hunt a hefty financial offer in addition to giving up a lot of draft capital considering how deep the rookie running back class is.

Chubb looked like a lock as a top-10 dynasty asset and a first-round pick in 2020 dynasty startup drafts. He is being valued as such currently. However, he turns 24-years old later this month and will likely have his fantasy upside constricted by Hunt’s presence next season. After next season, he will be entering the final year of his rookie deal as he would be set to hit free agency at age 26. Chubb is a very talented runner and still pretty young but it is scary to think that a year and a half of his prime could be lessened in value due to Hunt. There are enough questions that I would be a big gun shy of drafting or trading for Chubb at his current consensus valuation.

Meanwhile, Hunt has seen his dynasty value get a real shot in the arm. He has looked fantastic in his return to action. He is 24-years old and should hit free agency in the spring of 2021 at age 25. You have to be fairly optimistic that some team will value him enough to target him as their RB1 if he stays on the current trajectory.

Rookie review

Josh Jacobs has looked the part of a long-term fantasy RB1. He won’t turn 22-years old until after the season, which means he is a great bet to see his dynasty trade value continue to inch upwards all offseason as the crowd starts to focus in on how young he is and how little wear and tear he took in college. The future looks bright.

Miles Sanders looks like he could be a controversial player this offseason. He is likely to end his rookie season with something like 1,200 total yards and 45-50 receptions despite sharing a backfield with Jordan Howard. He will have his believers who see a highly-drafted, athletic, young back with a very fantasy-friendly skill set. Others will point to his lack of vision as a runner and be skeptical of his long-term prospects. As with some of the rookie quarterbacks, you will want to keep an eye on his play in December and decide which side of the fence you fall on.

David Montgomery is tough to figure out. He has been given a big workload and looks to have locked down the RB1 job in Chicago moving forward. However, he ranks just 30th in fantasy PPG amongst running backs who have played at least eight games. From a fantasy perspective, he’s been kind of the definition of replacement level.

Devin Singletary is a strong candidate to see a spike in fantasy value this offseason. He will be only 22-years old when the 2020 season kicks off and he is quietly starting to put up the type of fantasy numbers that will get people excited. Since returning from injury and regaining his starting role six weeks ago, Singletary has been the fantasy RB6. If he finishes strong and the Bills don’t add significant backfield competition in the offseason, he is going to be a valuable fantasy asset this summer.

Wide Receiver

The clear WR1

We have already focused in on how Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey have separated from the pack at their positions in terms of fantasy production in 2019 and Thomas has performed similarly at his position. At 22.8 fantasy PPG, Thomas is outscoring the WR3, Mike Evans, by 4.7 fantasy points per game. That may not seem like a huge number but over the course of the season, that ends up being almost an 80 point difference.

Adding to Thomas’ dynasty value is a look back at our first extended glimpse of what life might be like without Drew Brees. Thomas was the WR1 and averaged 23 PPG in the five games Teddy Bridgewater started, which is right in line with his season averages. He averaged 8.4 catches, 110 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game in that stretch.

The great flattening

At the risk of beating this point into the ground, let’s again take a look at the general fantasy landscape at the wide receiver position at the end of the fantasy regular season. 43 wide receivers scored at least 12 PPG in the PPR format. Even taking out the few guys who did so while playing in just a few games (John Ross, Desean Jackson, and Antonio Brown), we are still left with 40 players who averaged 12.0 or higher at the position and quite a few more who came close to that mark. It reflects a deepening pool of fantasy-viable options and makes for a relatively high number that we need to use as our proxy for replacement-level production at the position.

In addition to the pool of viable options getting deeper, we have seen the top receivers come back to the pack. Only Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin scored more than 6 PPG above replacement level this fantasy regular season. Aside from the top two, no other wide receiver has really given you a big weekly advantage.

Let’s look at two partial fantasy teams as an example. Each player listed has played 12 games and their fantasy rank is listed in parentheses:

• Team A: Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and David Montgomery
• Team B: Marvin Jones, Cole Beasley, Larry Fitzgerald, Jamison Crowder, and Christian McCaffrey

Team A features four fantasy WR1s and one RB2. In fact, Evans is WR3, Hopkins is WR4, Cooper is WR7, Allen is WR11, and Montgomery is RB20.

Team B features four wide receivers who were available for next to nothing in the offseason (and still don’t have much dynasty trade value) and an elite RB1.

The two hypothetical fantasy teams scored almost the exact same number of fantasy points during the 2019 fantasy regular season.

What is the takeaway from this exercise?

It is really difficult to gain a big advantage on the competition by stacking elite WR1s right now. Even if you pull it off and have a wide receiver corps like the one listed above that would rightly be the envy of your league, a single top running back can steal away that advantage almost single-handedly.

Youth Movement

One last big-picture point about the wide receiver position before moving on. We had an elite group of wide receivers that included Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and that group that recently hit age 30. Those were the elite guys a few years ago and it was recommended here that you try to cash out while their values were still sky high and try to move those guys while they were still in the tail end of their prime for younger wide receivers even if it meant taking a small short-term hit in production.

Now, a few years later, we may soon be reaching a similar point with the next class of elite wide receivers. Most of the current top tier of wide receivers, including Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Odell Beckham will soon turn 27 or 28-years old. They still have multiple prime years left and their age hasn’t had any real negative impact on their dynasty trade values. Yet.

The old saying that “fortune favors the prepared mind” may loosely apply here. The early retirement of Calvin Johnson. The frustrating string of injuries to Photos provided by Imagn Images