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POSITIVES

• Rob Kelley has been named the starter in Washington heading into training camp.
• He has reportedly slimmed down this offseason and seems to be taking the starting job seriously.
• Kelley scored six touchdowns in nine games as a starter and averaged 4.1 yards per carry (YPC) last season.

NEGATIVES

• Washington drafted Samaje Perine in the fourth round of the draft.
• Kelley doesn’t compare favorably to Perine in college production, measurables, or scouting.
• Pass-catching is not Kelley’s forté.
• Kelley’s nickname is Fat Rob for a reason.

THE DEVIL YOU KNOW

You would think a second-year starter who averaged 4.2 yards per carry as a rookie would be getting more love in the fantasy football. Alas, Rob Kelley is simply not a sexy fantasy option this offseason.

Kelley was an undrafted free agent in 2016, and he took over as the starter over Matt Jones in Week 8. He sizzled as a starter for his first three games, averaging 4.8 YPC and scoring four touchdowns in his first three games. Then the sky came tumbling down, and Fat Rob averaged just 3.3 YPC while scoring two touchdowns the rest of the way.

So which Rob Kelley will we see in 2017? The small sample sizes we have make for poor forecasting, but looking at his college production is a sobering endeavor.

Averaging 3.6 YPC as a senior and 4.0 YPC for your career is abysmal for any would-be NFL running back. He also scored a grand total of six rushing touchdowns his entire college career. Granted, Tulane isn’t exactly a powerhouse -- for all we know the offensive line was made from toothpicks -- but Kelley’s college production sheds some light into which subset of production to believe out of his rookie year.

THE SAINT YOU DON’T

Samaje Perine is the new kid in town, a darling among many fantasy analysts who is expected to overtake Kelley as a starter at some point this season.

Unlike Kelley, Perine was a big performer at Oklahoma.

Those are some beautiful statistics, especially when compared to his counterpart's college career. Like Kelley, Perine isn’t a pass-catcher -- Chris Thompson is going to be handling those duties for Washington. We won’t be discussing Thompson much here because he is the third wheel in Washington, but he is worth a late-round flier in PPR leagues where you have a deep bench.

Production aside, scouting reports for Perine are pretty nice, like this one from NFL.com:

Perine is a physical runner who can create additional yardage through power and can be a complimentary "banger" for a team who already has a slasher. Perine doesn't have the burst or play speed to be a dynamic lead back, but he can handle a heavy workload if needed and he should become an immediate short-yardage and goal-line option.

There isn’t even a college scouting report on NFL.com -- or any other major site -- for Kelley. It’s no wonder he burst onto the scene as a diamond in the rough last season. Similarly, MockDraftable.com only has information on Perine, who can sure bench press a lot.

It’s no wonder fantasy pundits have crowned Perine the next Jordan Howard, destined to overtake a lackluster starter and storm the league. It’s hard to argue against that notion, but we have to be careful when we assume these sorts of things. Kelley may be a late bloomer or a coach favorite. Perhaps Perine’s pass blocking won’t become good enough to keep him on the field. Maybe Kelley protects the ball better and winds up gaining more trust as the year goes on. Or the whimsical ghost of fantasy-hating Mike Shanahan could haunt fantasy owners all year long.

There are many factors at play when it comes to touches in an unsure situation like this. The data we have right now says Kelley did a fine job as a rookie and is the named starter. Drafting Perine earlier is a risk based on all the available information, but it has the potential for great reward if he does take over.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Because of Perine’s shiny college resume and subsequent lauding among pundits, his ADP has skyrocketed above Kelley’s. The last month has been especially unkind to Kelley, as fantasy owners seem to be abandoning ship.

As of now Perine is going a full round earlier than Kelley on average at Fantasy Football Calculator. That may trend the other way now that we are getting camp reports about Kelley starting, but we can assume they will be pretty close until we get more information.

The consensus ADP here at FBG have them back-to-back, with Perine going as the RB37 and Kelley as the RB38 on average. When breaking ADP out to MFL alone, Perine is going a full seven running backs ahead of Kelley, who is being taken 41st at his position on average. If he continues to fall into the teen rounds, Kelley will absolutely be a bargain this draft season.

Both of these guys are pretty good value as it is, and it is possible to land them both if you play your cards right. In spite of the negatives on paper, though, Kelley is the incumbent and named starter, making him more valuable at the time of this writing. If his status as a starter changes during the preseason, of course, adjust accordingly. 

THE CRYSTAL BALL

It’s easy to assume Perine will overtake Kelley, especially if you think the latter is not starter material. But Kelley is making an effort to stave Perine off, committing to a better diet that has shaved five percent of body fat and practicing his pass-catching and -blocking skills to round his skills out.

All health being equal, the likeliest outcome is that Kelley will hang onto the starting gig at least through the first few weeks of the season. If he is ineffective, Jay Gruden will have a quick hook and give Perine his shot. Thompson, meanwhile, will get on the field plenty in passing situations.

That said, this situation would mean Kelley gets starter-level touches for a few weeks to start the season, making him an excellent Zero RB target if you find yourself lacking at the running back position. Even if he is ineffective overall, Kelley could post decent fantasy numbers buoyed by a goal line score or two while Perine’s drafters wait impatiently for his chance to come.

Then again, Kelley could shine and stiff-arm Perine for the entire season, or the latter could explode in the preseason and force Gruden’s hand before Week 1. That’s the trouble with running back situations like this -- the crystal ball is clouded.

PROJECTIONS

David Dodds

Bob Henry

Maurile Tremblay

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Joe Holka takes a look at the entire Washington rushing offense at 4for4.com, including Rob Kelley:

In charting Kelley, I saw a running back who has good finishing ability and above-average balance through contact. That said, his season in 2016 was below average relative to my entire 60-player sample. Numbers-wise, he struggled with overall efficiency, as well as in key metrics like yards before/after contact.

Fat Rob's limitations don’t originate from poor offensive line play. Washington actually was a top-six unit last year in regards to overall Expected Success Rate on rushing attempts (47.7 percent).

In 9 total games as Washington’s lead back, Rob Kelley drew 5 top-8 RB defenses and 0 bottom-8 units.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) July 17, 2017

Over at Hogs Haven, James Dorsett thinks Samaje Perine is clearly the best back in Washington:

Robert Kelley is a nice player. However, his small sample of plus NFL production has been overrated. He was not productive in college, despite playing at a smaller school that provided little competition. And, finally, and perhaps most importantly, he is one of the least athletic running backs in the entire league. I could go on, but I feel like I already said it all here.

Samaje Perine was highly regarded coming out of high school, is an above-average athlete, was ultra-productive as a rusher at one of the best programs in college football history, has never suffered a truly major injury and is the youngest back on the Redskins' roster.

Follow @AlexMiglio