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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

CASH GAME TIPS

WHERE TO SPEND? USE H-VALUE!: Due to all of the value that can be had in Week #14, building cash game lineups will feel easy. You can feel pretty good about rostering names like DeShone Kizer ($4.8K), Giovani Bernard ($3.1), Chester Rogers ($3.0K), and Stephen Anderson ($3.2K) in your cash game lineups and getting close to (likely surpassing) 3x value. That said, you need to be able to spend the remainder of your salary on highly-priced players who you trust to do the same and that is where you might stumble. With two excellent offenses (New Orleans/Atlanta) having already played on Thursday night and both Pittsburgh and New England playing off the main slate, many of the expensive "safe" plays (i.e., Julio Jones, LeVeon Bell, and Antonio Brown) are not available. That will leave you will Todd Gurley ($8.1K) against the Eagles' stout run defense or DeAndre Hopkins against the Niners or even Keenan Allen versus the Redskins, amongst others. How do you decide? You can start by going to our Interactive Value Charts and sorting results based on "H-Value" (Read more about H-Value here on Page 98). Simply put, H-Value is the true value of a player with his salary built into that equation. For example, a $3.0K player projected to score 9.0 points (3x value) is far less valuable than an $8.0K player projected to score 24.0 points (also 3x value) simply because examples of the latter are far less frequent than the former. As such, it is often a savvy move to start building your cash game rosters with the very best overall value plays (i.e., Gio Bernard this week) and then building around the plays with high H-value players. This week, Alex Smith, Keenan Allen, and Larry Fitzgerald are all good options.

GPP TIPS

ADDRESSING GIOVANI BERNARD & JOSH GORDON'S OWNERSHIP: Early projections indicated that almost half of GPP rosters on DraftKings will feature Giovani Bernard due to his prominent role and bargain price point. Game theory generally dictates that you should consider fading any player owned at such rates...but should you? Likewise, Josh Gordon is projected to be owned between 35-40% against a Green Bay secondary that is without its two best cornerbacks (Kevin King and Davon House), neither of whom are have played well this season, an indicator that whoever is backing them up could be even worse. So how should we handle these situations? Me? I'm probably going to push my chips in the middle with Giovani Bernard because, barring injury, I just cannot envision how he finishes with less than 3x value. He should touch the ball 16+ times against a Bears team that is allowing 4.00 yards per carry. If he were to carry the ball 16 times and average only 4.00 yards per carry, he would finish at 2x value without doing anything else; that said, Gio is almost assured to catch a few passes, which should get him to 3x value quite easily on DraftKings' full PPR scoring format. If he were to find the endzone, he quickly is approaching the 6x scoring threshold, which makes him a must-have for tournaments. Given that Cincinnati is favored by nearly a touchdown, Bernard should see plenty of opportunity in this matchup, all of which makes him a top play for the week and "unfadeable," in my opinion. Josh Gordon, on the other hand, is probably a candidate who can be avoided (at some level) due to his implied ownership. Gordon looked tremendous in his 2017 debut, garnering 11 targets from DeShone Kizer and pulling in 4 of them for 85 receiving yards against a stellar Chargers secondary. His matchup against the Packers is far better, but ~ 40% ownership feels too high for a player making his second start in over 1,000 days with an inaccurate quarterback throwing the ball in a game that is reported to have sustained winds of 15+ MPH. I will probably be under the field at 15-20% exposure to Gordon for these reasons.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. Note that all projected ownership numbers are derived from fellow Footballguy Steve Buzzard's weekly ownership report. 

QUARTERBACKS

QB CASH OVERVIEW:

• Alex Smith (vs. OAK): After losing three consecutive games in which the Chiefs did not score more than 17 points, Andy Reid handed the play-calling duties to Offensive Coordinator, Matt Nagy, last week. Nagy's pass-heavy adjustments resulted in 366 passing yards and four passing touchdowns against the Jets (although KC still lost the game). Look for more of the same this weekend against Oakland's last-ranked DVOA pass defense that has only performed well recently due to cake matchups against Geno Smith and Trevor Siemian. 
• DeShone Kizer (vs. GB): Weather conditions could potentially affect deep passing in Cleveland on Sunday, but DeShone Kizer is still in play as a cash game option because of his willingness to run the ball; over the past month, Kizer has averaged 40+ rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. With the arrival of Josh Gordon to complement Corey Coleman on the other side of the field, Kizer's options to accrue fantasy points against the Packers' 21st DVOA pass defense are more numerous than most probably realize.
• Matthew Stafford (vs. TB): After taking a nasty hit to the hand against the Ravens, Matthew Stafford has been limited in practice all week; he did, however, start throwing the ball on Friday and was reported to be throwing without restrictions. That is promising news entering a weekend against the Buccaneers, who have allowed opposing quarterbacks to surpass 260+ yards in 10 out of 12 games this season. After back-to-back tough matchups against Minnesota and Baltimore, look for Stafford to bounce back in this spot with a solid performance against the league's 31st pass defense (DVOA).

QB GPP OVERVIEW:

• Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. ARZ): Two of the league's fastest-paced offenses take the field on Sunday in Houston when the 49ers take on the Texans. San Francisco runs the fastest overall offense in the league (25.0 seconds/play) and Houston is not far behind at 27.1 seconds per play (11th fastest in NFL). If these offenses run a lot of plays, there could be fireworks on the scoreboard because they are allowing the 25th most (San Francisco) and 28th most (Houston) points per game this season. Jimmy Garoppolo is an affordable GPP option after an impressive, albeit low-scoring, debut with the Niners in Chicago last week; look for improvement in his second full game, where some of those five field goals from last week turn into touchdowns against this Texans defense that is allowing 21% more points to the quarterback position after normalization to strength of schedule.
• Blaine Gabbert (vs. TEN): Do not sleep on Blaine Gabbert against the Titans' funnel defense in your GPP lineups this weekend. Tennessee is stout up front, allowing only 3.38 yards per carry to opposing running backs, which forces opponents to air it out against their 25th ranked DVOA pass defense. The Cardinals will be without Adrian Peterson (neck) once again and Kerwynn Williams is not the answer against this defensive front seven, which means that Gabbert could be asked to pull out the home win as a 3-point underdog. Gabbert has played very well, in line with what Bruce Arians predicted when he named him the starter in Week #11, particularly given that two of his three starts were against top-3 pass defenses (Jacksonville and LA Rams). This is without question his easiest matchup of the season and it would not be surprising to see him finish with 270+ yards and several touchdowns at single-digit ownership for less than $5K.
• Tom Savage (vs. SF): Opposite Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Savage will get his chance to shine against a Texans' pass defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks to this point in the season. Houston has allowed 8 of their last 10 opposing quarterbacks to surpass 18+ fantasy points with the lone exceptions being Kevin Hogan and Joe Flacco; at $4.8K, Savage will hit the requisite 4x threshold for GPP value with a similar performance. With Will Fuller (ribs) returning to the field to stretch the defense and keep over-the-top help away from DeAndre Hopkins, Savage should have his way against San Francisco's 30th ranked DVOA pass defense in a fast-paced, potential shootout.

RUNNING BACKS

RB CASH OVERVIEW:

• Giovani Bernard (vs. CHI): Due to the concussion suffered by Joe Mixon on Sunday Night Football, Giovani Bernard inherits the lead running back role for the Bengals in Week #14. Cincinnati's offensive line woes are well-known, but the Bengals are a 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears' middle-of-the-road rush defense. With only Brian Hill to back him up and a plus gamescript, Bernard should get as many touches as he can handle in this matchup at a ridiculously low $3.1K price tag. Never tempt fate (i.e., Mr. Injury), but it is difficult to envision a scenario where he finishes with less than double-digit fantasy points.
• Lamar Miller (vs. SF): Unable to surpass 100-rushing yards all season, Lamar Miller's best chance of surpassing that mark could rest on the shoulders of the San Francisco 49ers' defensive linemen on Sunday. The Niners allow more scheduled-adjusted fantasy points to running backs (30% more) than any team in the league and have allowed two different running backs to score three times in a game this season (Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley); while Lamar Miller certainly is not in the same class of those running backs, he should see plenty of action on Sunday and will not lose any redzone carries to Alfred Blue, who will miss this game with an injury.
• Frank Gore (vs. BUF): Regular readers of this column will remember previous versions of "Tips and Picks" where I outlined how bad the Bills' rush defense became when they traded away Marcell Dareus to the Jaguars at the end of October. Since then, the Bills have bled yardage (and touchdowns--11 in 5 games) to opposing running backs. Enter Frank Gore, who has 18 or more touches in 4 of his previous 5 games. Gore is hated in the DFS community for his elderly status, but he remains a fixture in this offense and could get even more action on Sunday if the weather patterns hold and Buffalo sees its first heavy snowfall of the year; assuming the field conditions are snowy on Sunday morning, be sure to bump up your exposure to Gore (and McCoy, for the same reason).

RB GPP OVERVIEW:

• Mike Davis (vs. JAX): After failing to impress in San Francisco over the previous two years, Mike Davis landed in Seattle in the off-season and has finally been given a chance to win the lead running back role after multiple injuries and disappointments from names like Chris Carson, Eddie Lacy, J.D. McKissic, and Thomas Rawls. In just two weeks on the field, Davis has impressed and should get plentiful action against the Jaguars in Florida on Sunday. It will be tough sledding for Davis against a Jaguars' front seven that has allowed only one rushing touchdown since Marcell Dareus arrived on the scene in Week #9. That said, Davis performed well against a similarly talented rush defense (Philadelphia) last weekend and is simply too cheap for a player who should touch the ball 16+ times on Sunday.
• Marshawn Lynch (vs. KC): A three-way tie at the top of the AFC-West and Amari Cooper missing another game should be enough to keep the throttle on Beast Mode this Sunday. Since injuries and a suspension have kept Michael Crabtree and/or Amari Cooper off the field for the past few weeks, Marshawn Lynch has filled the gap with 48 touches over that period of time (24 touches/game). In the process, he has picked up 43.2 DraftKings points and is still fairly priced at only $5.7K this week. The matchup against Kansas City is excellent, as the Chiefs' 30th ranked DVOA rush defense that has allowed five consecutive teams to surpass 100+ rushing yards, a list that includes underperformers like Denver, NY Giants, and NY Jets. If the Raiders are going to make the playoffs, Lynch is going to have to be a major part of that equation.
• Alfred Morris (vs. NYG): In their Thursday night showdown against the Redskins last week, the Cowboys got back to what works for them: Rushing the ball behind that monstrous offensive line. With Tyron Smith back on the field, expect Dallas to try to beat the Giants in a similar manner--by force-feeding Alfred Morris, who capitalized on 27 carries last week, compiling 127 rushing yards and a score in the process. The matchup against the Giants is attractive, as they field the league's 24th ranked DVOA rush defense that is allowed a hefty 4.30 yards per carry to opposing running backs. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

WR CASH OVERVIEW:

• Larry Fitzgerald (vs. TEN): The ageless wonder continues to shine with Blaine Gabbert under center. Since Gabbert took over three weeks ago, Fitzgerald has 28 targets and has scored in two of those contests. He has 24+ points in those games and the only disappointing performance was a tough matchup against Jacksonville's top-ranked pass defense. On Sunday, Fitzgerald will line up across from Logan Ryan, whose five touchdowns allowed while in coverage is third-worst in the league behind only Anthony Brown and Eli Apple. With a funnel defense pushing action to the passing game, it makes sense to get a piece of the focal point of that passing game: Larry Fitzgerald.
• Keenan Allen (vs. WAS): Arguably the hottest receiver in the league right now, Keenan Allen has three consecutive games with double-digit receptions, 100+ receiving yards, and a touchdown. Philip Rivers is just peppering Allen with targets and there is no reason to expect it to slow down against Kendall Fuller and the Redskins. Fuller is ProFootballFocus' 9th overall coverage cornerback (out of 113 qualifiers), but has still allowed big games to other slot receivers this season, including Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, and a pair of plus games to Nelson Agholor.
• DeAndre Hopkins (vs. SF): Nuk Hopkins will run at least half of his routes in the direction of Dontae Johnson, who ranks 104th out of 115 coverage cornerbacks on PFF. Johnson is no match for Hopkins, who is averaging almost 13 targets per game since Tom Savage went under center in Week #9. In those efforts, Hopkins faced the 2nd- (Baltimore), 3rd- (LA Rams), and 11th-ranked (Arizona--Patrick Peterson shadow coverage) DVOA pass defenses and still managed to accrue solid fantasy numbers. This matchup is arguably the best one he has had with Savage at quarterback and he has legitimate 150+ yard upside against these untalented perimeter defensive backs.

WR GPP OVERVIEW:

• Dez Bryant (vs. NYG): With Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith both active, Dez Bryant was often an afterthought in the Cowboys offensive scheme. When Elliott was suspended, Tyron Smith went down at the same time and the wheels fell off the Cowboys bus, causing them to lose three straight games where they scored a total of 22 points. Last week, Smith returned and Dallas rebounded with a convincing 38-14 victory over the Redskins, while Dez Bryant dealt with tight coverage from Josh Norman for most of the game. This week should be different against the Giants, who lost Janoris Jenkins to injured reserve, which means that Bryant will be running routes against Ross Cockrell and Eli Apple, both of whom will struggle to contain his playmaking abilities. With the offensive line at full-strength, Dak Prescott should have plenty of time to find Bryant in space against this subpar Giants secondary.
• Michael Crabtree (vs. KC): DFS players hate to make the decision between Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree because they are used very similarly in the Oakland offense. This week, Amari Cooper  (concussion) will watch the game against the Kansas City Chiefs while Crabtree should get all the action he can handle in the passing game. Back in Week #4, the roles were reversed and Crabtree missed a game due to a bruised lung; in that contest against a then-stellar Broncos secondary, Amari Cooper finished with eight targets, an impressive number given the strength of Denver's defensive backfield. As a corollary, we should expect Crabtree to get at least eight targets (likely more due to the difference in opponent ability), a number that is exciting given the fact that this same Kansas City defense allowed four passing touchdowns to a much less potent Jets offense just a week ago.
• Marvin Jones (vs. TB): This is a smash spot for Marvin Jones coming off back-to-back tough matchups against Baltimore and Minnesota. This week, Jones gets the league's friendliest defense to opposing wide receivers: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who allowed four 20+ fantasy point wide receiver performances in their previous two games prior to last week. Both Jones and Golden Tate are in play as high-upside tournament options, but a slight edge goes to Jones who will be slightly lower-owned due to his price point.

TIGHT ENDS

TE OVERVIEW:

• Stephen Anderson (vs. SF): In last week's edition of "Tips and Picks," you were given C.J. Fiedorowicz as a sneaky, low-dollar GPP option and he was concussed at the end of the first quarter. While that injury was disappointing to those of us who rostered Fiedorowicz, perhaps more frustrating was the fact that his backup, Stephen Anderson, went on to garner 12 additional targets and finished the game with 18.9 fantasy points. Right spot, wrong player. This week, Anderson will continue to get plenty of action in the Texans offense, as Fiedorowicz is now on injured reserve and Anderson is the last man standing behind Fiedo and Ryan Griffin. On paper, this appears to be a tough matchup against the 49ers' third-ranked DVOA defense against tight ends, but they have allowed six different tight ends to score in their previous six games, making Anderson an appealing punt play for both cash and GPP contests.
• Austin Seferian-Jenkins (vs. DEN): Back-to-back stinkers against Carolina and Kansas City, two top-notch tight end defenses, will drive down ownership on Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but he should be seriously considered for all contest formats against the Denver Broncos, who allow the third-most fantasy points to the position this season. Over the past two weeks, Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse have capitalized on ASJ's tight coverage, but Anderson tweaked a hamstring in practice this week and Kearse is not the type of receiver that can continue to put up big numbers every week; that could mean a return to normalcy with the Jets, where Seferian-Jenkins is the primary redzone target due to his large frame and steady hands.
• Jared Cook (vs. KC): The disappearance of Jared Cook from the Raiders' offensive game plan since their Week #10 bye is an enigma. Prior to the Raiders' bye week, Cook had 6 games with 40+ yards and/or a touchdown; since the break, Cook has not surpassed that threshold once and he enters this Sunday with back-to-back games with only a single catch. Recency bias will keep his ownership levels low and this would appear to be an ideal time to pounce on him at a reasonable price point, especially given that Amari Cooper's 8.4 targets per game will need to be redistributed and because Cook went off against the Chiefs earlier this season with a 6/107/0 stat line.

TEAM DEFENSES

DEFENSE OVERVIEW:

• Bengals (vs. CHI): The Chicago Bears have surpassed 17 points only once since mid-October and look to be packing it in as they enter this contest with five consecutive losses. Last week against the 49ers, John Fox mysteriously grinded the game to an embarrassingly low pace that resulted in Chicago making only 35 total offensive plays in a game that saw them lose 15-14. This week, they will travel to Ohio to face Cincinnati, who lost a heart-breaker to the Steelers last Sunday night. The Bengals have three or more sacks in three of their previous four games and should have no troubles putting away Chicago in this matchup.
• Vikings (vs. CAR): Betting on talent is generally a smart investment in DFS circles and there is arguably no better all-around defense in the NFL than the Minnesota Vikings. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed less points and less total yardage than the Vikings, yet Jacksonville is a DFS favorite and Minnesota is often overlooked as a team defense option. The masses will be off the Vikings defense once again this weekend because they are playing an 8-4 playoff-caliber Panthers offense, but Greg Olsen is hobbled and the Panthers have limited playmakers on offense outside of Christian McCaffrey; do not be surprised if Minnesota wins this one handily and forces Cam Newton to try to do too much in front of a desperate home crowd late in the game.
• Chargers (vs. WAS): The Chargers defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game for the past month and will look to stay hot as they contend for the AFC-West Division title. The matchup against the Redskins favors the Chargers, as their weakness is defending the run and Washington is down to a combination of Samaje Perine and Byron Marshall to move the sticks on the ground. Through the air, Kirk Cousins will have to contend with some excellent coverage cornerbacks on the outside, leaving him with only Jamison Crowder to move the ball via the pass. Meanwhile, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III will be breathing down Cousins' throat all afternoon. Over the past two weeks, both the Cowboys' and the Giants' defenses have amassed 34.0 fantasy points against Washington and most would agree that those defenses do not parallel the strength of the Chargers defense.

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