Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated Thursday 12/21 @ 9 PM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Buffalo | -12 | 47 | 29.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -5.5 | 52.5 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -10 | 46.5 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Philadelphia | Oakland | -9 | 47.5 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Balitmore | Indianapolis | -13.5 | 41 | 27.25 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| LA Rams | Tennessee | -6.5 | 47.5 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Kansas City | Miami | -10.5 | 43.5 | 27 | +++ | ++ | + |
| Pittsburgh | Houston | -9 | 45 | 27 | +++ | ++ | + |
| Dallas | Seattle | -5 | 47.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | -9 | 41 | 25 | + | + | ++ |
| LA Chargers | NY Jets | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | + | + | + |
| Detroit | Cincinnati | -4 | 44 | 24 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | 5.5 | 52.5 | 23.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | San Francisco | -4 | 42 | 23 | |||
| Chicago | Cleveland | -6.5 | 38 | 22.25 | ++ | ||
| Washington | Denver | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | |||
| Arizona | NY Giants | -3.5 | 40 | 21.75 | |||
| Seattle | Dallas | 5 | 47.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Tennessee | LA Rams | 6.5 | 47.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Detroit | 4 | 44 | 20 | |||
| Oakland | Philadelphia | 9 | 47.5 | 19.25 | |||
| San Francisco | Jacksonville | 4 | 42 | 19 | |||
| Denver | Washington | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | 10 | 46.5 | 18.25 | |||
| NY Giants | Arizona | 3.5 | 40 | 18.25 | |||
| Houston | Pittsburgh | 9 | 45 | 18 | |||
| NY Jets | LA Chargers | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | |||
| Buffalo | New England | 12 | 47 | 17.5 | |||
| Miami | Kansas City | 10.5 | 43.5 | 16.5 | |||
| Green Bay | Minnesota | 9 | 41 | 16 | |||
| Cleveland | Chicago | 6.5 | 38 | 15.75 | |||
| Indianapolis | Baltimore | 13.5 | 41 | 13.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Drew Brees (Saints), Cam Newton (Panthers), Nick Foles (Eagles)
- Running Back: Dion Lewis/Mike Gillislee (Patriots), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Jay Ajayi (Eagles), Alex Collins (Ravens), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), LeVeon Bell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Chris Hogan/Brandin Cooks/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Josh Hill (Saints), Devin Funchess/Damiere Byrd/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Ravens
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys),
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Sammy Watkins (Rams), Jeremy Maclin/Mike Wallace/Ben Watson (Ravens), Tyreek Hill/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), JuJu Smith-Schuster/Martavis Bryant/Jesse James (Steelers), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys)
- Defense: Bears, Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Case Keenum (Vikings), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray/Jerick McKinnon (Vikings), Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick (Lions)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron (Lions)
- Defense: Chiefs, Patriots, Chargers, Steelers
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Daily FF
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Ameer Abdullah
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Danny Amendola
Le'Veon Bell
Tom Brady
Martavis Bryant
Damiere Byrd
Alex Collins
Brandin Cooks
Stefon Diggs
Eric Ebron
Ezekiel Elliott
Zach Ertz
Joe Flacco
Nick Foles
Jared Goff
Melvin Gordon III
Rob Gronkowski
Tyreek Hill
Chris Hogan
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
Jesse James
Marvin Jones Jr
Alvin Kamara
Case Keenum
Travis Kelce
Cooper Kupp
Christian McCaffrey
Jerick McKinnon
Latavius Murray
Cam Newton
Dak Prescott
Ben Roethlisberger
Kyle Rudolph
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Matthew Stafford
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Sammy Watkins
Tyrell Williams
Albert Wilson
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