![Vegas Value Chart: Week 15](https://footballguys.imgix.net/nfl-action-photos/KamaAl00_H.jpg?auto=format,compress&w=730)
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orleans | NY Jets | -16 | 47 | 31.5 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
New England | Pittsburgh | -3 | 53 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -6 | 48 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
Minnesota | Cincinnati | -10.5 | 42 | 26.25 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
Carolina | Green Bay | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
Jacksonville | Houston | -11 | 39 | 25 | + | ++ | +++ |
Pittsburgh | New England | 3 | 53 | 25 | + | + | |
Detroit | Chicago | -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | + | + | + |
Seattle | LA Rams | -2 | 47.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Dallas | Oakland | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Washington | Arizona | -4.5 | 43.5 | 24 | + | + | + |
LA Chargers | Kansas City | -1.5 | 46 | 23.75 | |||
Philadelphia | NY Giants | -7.5 | 40 | 23.75 | + | + | |
Baltimore | Cleveland | -7 | 40 | 23.5 | + | ||
San Francisco | Tennessee | -2 | 44 | 23 | |||
LA Rams | Seattle | 2 | 47.5 | 22.75 | |||
Kansas City | LA Chargers | 1.5 | 46 | 22.25 | |||
Green Bay | Carolina | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
Denver | Indianapolis | -2.5 | 40.5 | 21.5 | + | ||
Oakland | Dallas | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
Tennessee | San Francisco | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 6 | 48 | 21 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
Buffalo | Miami | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
Arizona | Washington | 4.5 | 43.5 | 19.5 | |||
Chicago | Detroit | 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Denver | 2.5 | 40.5 | 19 | |||
Cleveland | Baltimore | 7 | 40 | 16.5 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | 7.5 | 40 | 16.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Minnesota | 10.5 | 42 | 15.75 | |||
NY Jets | New Orleans | 16 | 47 | 15.5 | |||
Houston | Jacksonville | 11 | 39 | 14 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Latavius Murray/Jerick McKinnon (Vikings)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Josh Hill (Saints), Chris Hogan/Brandin Cooks/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Jaguars
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Case Keenum (Vikings)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings)
- Defense: Saints, Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffery (Panthers), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick (Lions), Mike Davis (Seahawks), Alfred Morris (Cowboys), Samaje Perine (Redskins), Jay Ajayi/LeGarrette Blount (Eagles)
- Receivers: Devin Funchess/Damiere Byrd/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Marqise Lee/Dede Westbrook/Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers), Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron (Lions), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Josh Doctson/Jamison Crowder/Vernon Davis (Redskins)
- Defense: Eagles, Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Redskins