Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
| New England | Cincinnati | -8.5 | 47 | 27.75 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Pittsburgh | Miami | -7.5 | 47 | 27.25 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Carolina | New Orleans | -3 | 51 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | NY Jets | -7.5 | 46.5 | 27 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Seattle | Atlanta | -6.5 | 46 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Buffalo | San Francisco | -7.5 | 44.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | ++ |
| Green Bay | Dallas | -4 | 47.5 | 25.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tennessee | Cleveland | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | + | ++ | ++ |
| Chicago | Jacksonville | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
| Houston | Indianapolis | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Denver | San Diego | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| New Orleans | Carolina | 3 | 51 | 24 | + | + | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -2.5 | 45 | 23.75 | |||
| Detroit | Los Angeles | -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | + | ||
| Oakland | Kansas City | -1 | 46.5 | 23.75 | |||
| NY Giants | Baltimore | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||
| Kansas City | Oakland | 1 | 46.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Jacksonville | Chicago | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
| Dallas | Green Bay | 4 | 47.5 | 21.75 | |||
| Indianapolis | Houston | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 2.5 | 45 | 21.25 | |||
| San Diego | Denver | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
| Baltimore | NY Giants | 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | |||
| Los Angeles | Detroit | 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | |||
| Atlanta | Seattle | 6.5 | 46 | 19.75 | |||
| Miami | Pittsburgh | 7.5 | 47 | 19.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Arizona | 7.5 | 46.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | New England | 8.5 | 47 | 19.25 | |||
| San Francisco | Buffalo | 7.5 | 44.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Tennessee | 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), LeVeon Bell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Antonio Brown/Sammie Coates Jr/Jesse James (Steelers)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Tyrod Taylor (Bills), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Cameron Artis-Payne (Panthers), David Johnson (Cardinals), Christine Michael (Seahawks), LeSean McCoy (Bills), Eddie Lacy (Packers), DeMarco Murray (Titans)
- Receivers: Kelvin Benjamin/Corey Brown/Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/John Brown (Cardinals), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Robert Woods/Marquise Goodwin/Charles Clay (Bills), Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers)
- Defense: Bills, Titans
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Marcus Mariota (Titans), Brian Hoyer (Bears), Brock Osweiler (Texans), Trevor Siemian (Broncos), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Jordan Howard (Bears), Lamar Miller (Texans), C.J. Anderson (Broncos), Mark Ingram (Saints)
- Receivers: Tajae Sharpe/Rishard Matthews/Andre Johnson/Delanie Walker (Titans), Alshon Jeffery/Eddie Royal/Cameron Meredith/Zach Miller (Bears), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller (Texans), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Virgil Green (Broncos), Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Patriots, Steelers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Lions
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Davante Adams
Nelson Agholor
Le'Veon Bell
Tom Brady
Antonio Brown
John Brown
Randall Cobb
Zach Ertz
Will Fuller V
Marquise Goodwin
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Chris Hogan
DeAndre Hopkins
Jordan Howard
Brian Hoyer
Mark Ingram II
Jesse James
David Johnson
Marcus Mariota
Jordan Matthews
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Richard Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Emmanuel Sanders
Tajae Sharpe
Trevor Siemian
Tyrod Taylor
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson
Robert Woods
