Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | New Orleans | -3.5 | 28.5 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Carolina | Atlanta | -4 | 27 | 50 | +++ | ++ | |
| Washington | Cleveland | -7.5 | 26.5 | 45.5 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -3 | 26.25 | 49.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Kansas City | -5.5 | 26.25 | 47 | ++ | +++ | |
| Cincinnati | Miami | -7 | 25.75 | 44.5 | ++ | ++ | ++ |
| Baltimore | Oakland | -4 | 25.25 | 46.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | Los Angeles | -7.5 | 25.25 | 43 | + | +++ | +++ |
| New Orleans | San Diego | 3.5 | 25 | 53.5 | + | ||
| Detroit | Chicago | -3 | 24.75 | 46.5 | + | + | |
| Dallas | San Francisco | -3 | 24.5 | 46 | + | + | |
| New England | Buffalo | -5.5 | 24.25 | 43 | + | ++ | |
| Minnesota | NY Giants | -4.5 | 24 | 43.5 | + | + | |
| Denver | Tampa Bay | -3 | 23.5 | 44 | |||
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 3 | 23.25 | 49.5 | |||
| Houston | Tennesee | -5.5 | 23 | 40.5 | + | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Carolina | 4 | 23 | 50 | |||
| Chicago | Detroit | 3 | 21.75 | 46.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Dallas | 3 | 21.5 | 46 | |||
| Oakland | Baltimore | 4 | 21.25 | 46.5 | |||
| Kansas City | Pittsburgh | 5.5 | 20.75 | 47 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Denver | 3 | 20.5 | 44 | |||
| Seattle | NY Jets | -1 | 20 | 39 | ++ | ||
| NY Giants | Minnesota | 4.5 | 19.5 | 43.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Washington | 7.5 | 19 | 45.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Seattle | 1 | 19 | 39 | |||
| Buffalo | New England | 5.5 | 18.75 | 43 | |||
| Miami | Cincinnati | 7 | 18.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Los Angeles | Arizona | 7.5 | 17.75 | 43 | |||
| Tennesee | Houston | 5.5 | 17.5 | 40.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Philip Rivers (Chargers), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Matt Jones/Chris Thompson (Redskins), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Travis Benjamin/Tyrell Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
- Defense: Arizona, Houston
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Andrew Luck (Colts), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Joe Flacco (Ravens)
- Running Back: Cameron Artis-Payne/Fozzy Whittaker (Panthers), Frank Gore (Colts), Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals), Justin Forsett/Terrance West (Ravens)
- Receivers: DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), T.Y. Hilton/Phillip Dorsett/Jack Doyle/Dwayne Allen (Colts), Antonio Brown/Markus Wheaton/Jesse James (Steelers), A.J. Green/Brandon LaFell/Tyler Boyd (Bengals), Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Dennis Pitta (Ravens)
- Defense: Washington, Cincinnati, New England, Seattle
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Drew Brees (Saints), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Dwayne Washington/Theo Riddick (Lions), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Jerrick McKinnon/Matt Asiata (Vikings), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/Malcom Floyd/John Brown (Cardinals), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Michael Thomas/Coby Fleener (Saints), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones/Anquan Boldin/Eric Ebron (Lions), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys)
- Defense: Minnesota
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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