News and Notes
The team-by-team notes will return soon. Over the next couple of weeks, I'm working through a mid-season tier update by position.
- News broke late Tuesday night that J.J. Watt has aggravated the back injury that led to offseason microdiscectomy surgery and would likely be moved to injured reserve. He could return late in the season, but it's extremely unlikely. Jason Pierre-Paul and Dontari Poe told us how difficult this recovery is and we saw it with Watt over the first three weeks. He was a shell of his usual self as he tried to regain core strength while practicing and playing. It's not worked out. Whether he has a repeat surgery or chooses to slowly rehab, this should be a minimum 10-12 week recovery and it's unlikely Watt or the Texans risk bringing him back more quickly lest they risk him ever returning to full form. Don't expect to see him until 2017.
- I stubbornly held onto Denzel Perryman through his part-time snap counts, but I'm sad his increased value will come at the expense of Manti Te'o's Achilles injury. You should also continue to watch Jatavis Brown closely. For now, Brown looks like he'll rotate with Kyle Emanuel as the Chargers work to replace Te'o. But I suspect it'll be difficult to keep Brown off the field. And if/when Brown takes over in the base defense, he will challenge Perryman for dime snaps.
- Ryan Shazier is ... frustrating. He's "very questionable" to play Sunday night after aggravating his recent MCL sprain. Lawrence Timmons needed a hospital visit to treat a puncture wound, but should be able to play.
- Karl Joseph took over as the starting strong safety in Oakland. Behind a messy linebacker group that was without benched Ben Heeney, Joseph got off to a nice start. Neither Keanu Neal nor Clayton Geathers played full time snaps as they work themselves into the Atlanta and Indianapolis lineups, but all three young safeties are going to have value quickly.
- Vontaze Burfict will be back this week. I don't expect the Bengals to play him every down, but it's not impossible. I'd probably hold on starting Burfict this week unless we hear otherwise. You should also keep Vinny Rey on the bench this week. Burfict's snaps are coming at Rey's expense.
- Zach Brown had a big week, but played just 60% of Buffalo's snaps. His stat crew and the dearth of tackle competition will help him hold value through limited snaps but prepare for some future variance.
- Darron Lee played well enough in the base defense that it's unlikely Erin Henderson will get his starting job back when he returns to health.
Positional Tiers
We're three weeks into the regular season and getting a much better sense of schemes, depth charts, and player production. There's still time for disappointing players to turn their season around or fairy tale trends to turn back into pumpkins. But that becomes less and less likely after 3-4 weeks of data.
These tiers will not be as extensive as my offseason tiers. During the season, I put players into three categories: Matchup Independent Starters, Matchup Dependent Plays, and Priority Watch List. Dynasty league owners should have an additional category: Stashes you must keep on your roster. In deeper leagues, the matchup dependent list will obviously need to be longer.
This week: Defensive Line
Defensive Line Tiers
Matchup Independent Every-Week Starters
Khalil Mack, Jabaal Sheard, Jason Pierre-Paul, Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Brandon Graham, Carlos Dunlap, Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Olivier Vernon, Cameron Jordan, Calais Campbell, Devin Taylor, Ezekiel Ansah (inj)
Rosterable Matchup Dependent Plays
Sheldon Richardson, Demarcus Lawrence (susp), Derek Wolfe, Timmy Jernigan, Kyle Williams, Vinny Curry (will move up when healthy), William Hayes, Mike Daniels, Henry Anderson, Jurrell Casey, Cameron Heyward, Corey Liuget, Jaye Howard
Big Play Matchup Plays
Danielle Hunter (arguably matchup independent despite part time snaps), Cameron Wake, Frank Clark, Cliff Avril, Chris Long
Priority Watch List
Rob Ninkovich (susp)
Dynasty Must Roster Stashes
J.J. Watt (injured-IR), Dante Fowler, Jadeveon Clowney (still listed LB), Joey Bosa, Noah Spence
Dynasty Watch List
Carl Nassib (inj), Trey Flowers, DeForest Buckner, Robert Nkemdiche, Owa Odighizuwa, Lorenzo Mauldin, Randy Gregory (susp)
Defensive Tackles to Roster
Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald, Linval Joseph, Geno Atkins, Michael Bennett, Kerry Hyder, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Damon Harrison
EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKER PROJECTION
Additions to the every-down column in BOLD. Injury situations to monitor this week in italics.
|
TEAM
|
EVERY-DOWN LB
|
75-100% SNAPS
|
INJ | SUSP
|
NOTES
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARIZONA
|
||||
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ATLANTA
|
Deion Jones | DeVondre Campbell | ||
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BALTIMORE
|
C.J. Mosley : Zachary Orr
|
|
||
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BUFFALO
|
|
|||
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CAROLINA
|
||||
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CHICAGO
|
Danny Trevathan | Watch for news on Trevathan injury | ||
|
CINCINNATI
|
none
|
Karlos Dansby |
Vontaze Burfict (returns W4)
|
Burfict likely limited role in first week back |
|
CLEVELAND
|
Demario Davis : Chris Kirksey
|
|||
|
DALLAS
|
Durant and Hitchens continue to rotate
|
|||
|
DENVER
|
||||
|
DETROIT
|
Kyle Van Noy (while Levy out) | DeAndre Levy | ||
|
GREEN BAY
|
none
|
Base - dime rotation among ILBs
|
||
|
HOUSTON
|
Clowney playing defensive end
|
|||
|
INDIANAPOLIS
|
none |
D'Qwell Jackson
|
Trent Cole (IR) | Walden may get 80% w/ Cole injured |
|
JACKSONVILLE
|
||||
|
KANSAS CITY
|
|
Justin Houston (PUP)
|
||
|
LOS ANGELES
|
||||
|
MIAMI
|
|
|
|
|
|
MINNESOTA
|
||||
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NEW ENGLAND
|
Jamie Collins
|
Dont'a Hightower | ||
|
NEW ORLEANS
|
Ellerbe will replace Robertson when healthy
|
|||
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NEW YORK GIANTS
|
none |
|
||
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NEW YORK JETS
|
Erin Henderson |
|
||
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OAKLAND
|
Malcolm Smith : Cory James
|
Heeney benched | ||
|
PHILADELPHIA
|
Jordan Hicks |
|
||
|
PITTSBURGH
|
Lawrence Timmons (moves up if Shazier out) | |||
|
SAN DIEGO
|
|
Manti Te'o (IR) | ||
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SAN FRANCISCO
|
||||
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SEATTLE
|
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TAMPA BAY
|
||||
|
TENNESSEE
|
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WASHINGTON
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Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis, and matchup discussion. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.
