Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Washington | -14 | 52 | 33 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | -11 | 46 | 28.5 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| New Orleans | Tennessee | -8 | 46 | 27 | ++ | ++ | + |
| San Diego | Chicago | -4 | 49 | 26.5 | + | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Oakland | -4 | 48 | 26 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | San Francisco | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | ++ | + | ++ |
| NY Giants | Tampa Bay | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Denver | Indianapolis | -5 | 45 | 25 | + | + | |
| Green Bay | Carolina | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Jacksonville | -2.5 | 45 | 23.75 | |||
| Buffalo | Miami | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
| Chicago | San Diego | 4 | 49 | 22.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | NY Giants | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
| Oakland | Pittsburgh | 4 | 48 | 22 | |||
| Carolina | Green Bay | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
| Jacksonville | NY Jets | 2.5 | 45 | 21.25 | |||
| Minnesota | St. Louis | -2.5 | 39.5 | 21 | ++ | ||
| Dallas | Philadelphia | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | Denver | 5 | 45 | 20 | |||
| Tennessee | New Orleans | 8 | 46 | 19 | + | ||
| Washington | New England | 14 | 52 | 19 | + | ||
| San Francisco | Atlanta | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | + | ||
| St. Louis | Minnesota | 2.5 | 39.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | 11 | 46 | 17.5 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill (Bengals)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Bengals
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Andy Dalton (Bengals), Drew Brees (Saints), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/C.J. Spiller (Saints), Devonta Freeman (Falcons)
- Receivers: A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints), Steve Johnson/Malcolm Floyd/Antonio Gates (Chargers)
- Defense: Falcons, Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Eli Manning (Giants), Peyton Manning (Broncos), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Zach Mettenberger (Titans), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Blaine Gabbert (49ers), Johnny Manziel (Browns)
- Running Back: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead (Chargers), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Rashad Jennings (Giants), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (Broncos), Eddie Lacy/James Starks (Packers)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant (Steelers), Julio Jones/Roddy White/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Odell Beckham/Rueben Randle (Giants), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos), Randall Cobb/James Jones (Packers), Justin Hunter/Dorial Green-Beckham/Delanie Walker (Titans), Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith (49ers), Travis Benjamin/Brian Hartline/Gary Barnidge (Browns)
- Defense: Patriots, Saints
