Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Miami | -8 | 51 | 29.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -7.5 | 48.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
| Baltimore | San Diego | -3.5 | 50 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Carolina | Indianapolis | -7 | 46.5 | 26.75 | +++ | ++ | + |
| New Orleans | NY Giants | -3.5 | 49 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | Cleveland | -5 | 46 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | -1.5 | 48.5 | 25 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | Detroit | -5 | 45 | 25 | ++ | + | + |
| Houston | Tennessee | -6.5 | 42.5 | 24.5 | + | + | ++ |
| St. Louis | San Francisco | -8.5 | 40 | 24.25 | ++ | + | +++ |
| Green Bay | Denver | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | + | ||
| Seattle | Dallas | -6 | 41 | 23.5 | + | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 1.5 | 48.5 | 23.5 | |||
| San Diego | Baltimore | 3.5 | 50 | 23.25 | |||
| NY Jets | Oakland | -2 | 44 | 23 | |||
| NY Giants | New Orleans | 3.5 | 49 | 22.75 | |||
| Miami | New England | 8 | 51 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Denver | Green Bay | 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | |||
| Minnesota | Chicago | 0 | 42 | 21 | |||
| Chicago | Minnesota | 0 | 42 | 21 | |||
| Oakland | NY Jets | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 7.5 | 48.5 | 20.5 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Arizona | 5 | 46 | 20.5 | |||
| Detroit | Kansas City | 5 | 45 | 20 | |||
| Indianapolis | Carolina | 7 | 46.5 | 19.75 | + | ||
| Tennessee | Houston | 6.5 | 42.5 | 18 | |||
| Dallas | Seattle | 6 | 41 | 17.5 | |||
| San Francisco | St. Louis | 8.5 | 40 | 15.75 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Julio Jones/Roddy White/Jacob Tamme (Falcons)
- Defense: Rams
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Joe Flacco (Ravens), Cam Newton (Panthers), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Justin Forsett (Ravens), Mark Ingram/Khiry Robinson (Saints), Charcandrick West (Chiefs), Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Receivers: Steve Smith/Kamar Aiken/Crockett Gillmore (Ravens), Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints)
- Defense: Texans, Seahawks
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Brian Hoyer (Texans), Nick Foles (Rams), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Colin Kaepernick (49ers)
- Running Back: Chris Johnson/Andre Ellington (Cardinals), Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill (Bengals), Alfred Blue/Chris Polk (Texans), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), DeAndre Hopkins/Nate Washington/Cecil Shorts (Texans), Tavon Austin/Jared Cook (Rams), Randall Cobb/James Jones (Packers), Jarvis Landry/Rishard Matthews/Jordan Cameron (Dolphins), Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson (Buccaneers), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief (Colts), Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith (49ers)
- Defense: Panthers, Chiefs
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Danny Amendola
Tavon Austin
Giovani Bernard
Tom Brady
John Brown
Randall Cobb
Chris Conley
Brandin Cooks
Jared Cook
Andy Dalton
Mike Evans
Joe Flacco
Nick Foles
Devonta Freeman
A.J. Green
Rob Gronkowski
T.Y. Hilton
DeAndre Hopkins
Brian Hoyer
Mark Ingram II
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Travis Kelce
Jarvis Landry
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Ryan
Willie Snead IV
Ryan Tannehill
Albert Wilson
Jameis Winston
