Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | Chicago | -9 | 47 | 28 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Arizona | San Francisco | -10.5 | 45 | 27.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Houston | New Orleans | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | + | ++ | |
| Cincinnati | St. Louis | -9 | 42 | 25.5 | ++ | ++ | +++ |
| Indianapolis | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | + | ++ | |
| Jacksonville | San Diego | -4 | 46.5 | 25.25 | + | ++ | |
| Seattle | Pittsburgh | -4.5 | 45 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| NY Giants | Washington | -2 | 47 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| New England | Denver | -3 | 45 | 24 | |||
| Atlanta | Minnesota | -2 | 46 | 24 | |||
| Carolina | Dallas | -1.5 | 46 | 23.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | -3.5 | 42.5 | 23 | + | ||
| Philadelphia | Detroit | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Detroit | Philadelphia | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Oakland | Tennessee | -1.5 | 44 | 22.75 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | 2 | 47 | 22.5 | |||
| Kansas City | Buffalo | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | + | ||
| Dallas | Carolina | 1.5 | 46 | 22.25 | |||
| Cleveland | Baltimore | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | + | ||
| New Orleans | Houston | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
| Minnesota | Atlanta | 2 | 46 | 22 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
| San Diego | Jacksonville | 4 | 46.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Tennessee | Oakland | 1.5 | 44 | 21.25 | |||
| Denver | New England | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Seattle | 4.5 | 45 | 20.25 | |||
| Miami | NY Jets | 3.5 | 42.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Cleveland | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||
| Chicago | Green Bay | 9 | 47 | 19 | + | ||
| Buffalo | Kansas City | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
| San Francisco | Arizona | 10.5 | 45 | 17.25 | + | ||
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | 9 | 42 | 16.5 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Carson Palmer (Cardinals)
- Running Back: Eddie Lacy/James Starks (Packers), Chris Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/James Jones/Richard Rodgers (Packers), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (Cardinals)
- Defense: Bengals
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Brian Hoyer (Texans), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Matt Hasselbeck (Colts), Blake Bortles (Jaguars)
- Running Back: Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Cecil Shorts/Nate Washington (Texans), A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Coby Fleener (Colts), Allen Robinson/Allen Hurns/Julius Thomas (Jaguars)
- Defense: Cardinals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Eli Manning (Giants), Jay Cutler (Bears), Blaine Gabbert (49ers), Nick Foles (Rams)
- Running Back: Alfred Blue (Texans), Frank Gore/Ahmad Bradshaw (Colts), T.J. Yeldon (Jaguars), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks), Rashad Jennings/Shane Vereen (Giants)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Odell Beckham JrDwayne Harris/Will Tye (Giants), Alshon Jeffery/Marquess Wilson/Martellus Bennett (Bears), Tavon Austin/Wes Welker/Jared Cook (Rams)
- Defense: Packers, Jets, Chiefs, Browns
