Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | NY Giants | -7.5 | 55 | 31.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11.5 | 48 | 29.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Cincinnati | Houston | -10.5 | 47 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Baltimore | Jacksonville | -5.5 | 48 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Miami | -6 | 47 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| New Orleans | Washington | -1 | 50.5 | 25.75 | + | ++ | |
| St. Louis | Chicago | -7.5 | 42.5 | 25 | ++ | + | +++ |
| Washington | New Orleans | 1 | 50.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Seattle | Arizona | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Tennessee | -4.5 | 43.5 | 24 | + | + | + |
| Oakland | Minnesota | -3 | 45 | 24 | + | + | |
| Denver | Kansas City | -6.5 | 41.5 | 24 | ++ | + | +++ |
| NY Giants | New England | 7.5 | 55 | 23.75 | ++ | ||
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -4.5 | 41 | 22.75 | ++ | ||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Dallas | -1.5 | 43.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | Baltimore | 5.5 | 48 | 21.25 | |||
| Dallas | Tampa Bay | 1.5 | 43.5 | 21 | |||
| Minnesota | Oakland | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
| Arizona | Seattle | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
| Miami | Philadelphia | 6 | 47 | 20.5 | + | ||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | |||
| Tennessee | Carolina | 4.5 | 43.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Detroit | Green Bay | 11.5 | 48 | 18.25 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 4.5 | 41 | 18.25 | |||
| Houston | Cincinnati | 10.5 | 47 | 18.25 | + | ||
| Chicago | St. Louis | 7.5 | 42.5 | 17.5 | |||
| Kansas City | Denver | 6.5 | 41.5 | 17.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Andy Dalton (Bengals)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), James Starks (Packers), Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill (Bengals)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers), A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals)
- Defense: Rams, Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Joe Flacco (Ravens), Sam Bradford (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Eli Manning (Giants)
- Running Back: Justin Forsett (Ravens), DeMarco Murray (Eagles), Todd Gurley (Rams), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: Kamar Aiken/Crockett Gillmore (Ravens), Jordan Matthews/Josh Huff/Zach Ertz (Eagles) Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints), Odell Beckham Jr/Rueben Randle (Giants)
- Defense: Packers, Bengals, Steelers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Nick Foles (Rams), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Cam Newton (Panthers), Derek Carr (Raiders), Peyton Manning (Broncos), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Brian Hoyer (Texans)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram (Saints), Alfred Morris/Matt Jones/Chris Thompson (Redskins), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Latavius Murray (Raiders)
- Receivers: Tavon Austin/Kenny Britt/Jared Cook (Rams), Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/DeSean Jackson/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Ted Ginn Jr/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (Raiders), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos), Jarvis Landry/Rishard Matthews/Jordan Cameron (Dolphins), Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate (Lions), DeAndre Hopkins/Cecil Shorts/Nate Washington (Texans)
- Defense: Panthers
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