Welcome to the 2015 Footballguys Discussion series, where we get a few staff members and toss them an open-ended question. Check out their answers.
Taking into account their ADP, which rookie wide receiver is most appealing to you this season?
Jason Wood: Amari Cooper is my top-ranked rookie receiver, but I think he's being drafted in-line with his value. Ergo, my choice of most valuable rookie would be Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett is already running ahead of Donte Moncrief and will see plenty of snaps as the 3rd receiver in the league's top passing attack. Yet, if either T.Y. Hilton or Andre Johnson get hurt, Dorsett becomes a top target from the NFL's top gunslinger. Given Dorsett's ADP (194--the 20th round in 10-team leagues), he's an AMAZING late round lottery ticket.
Jeff Pasquino: While I love Cooper's ability (and that Oakland is likely to have to pass a lot this year), give me Nelson Agholor in Philadelphia. Granted preseason is still preseason, but Agholor's catch radius is ridiculous. He is so fast and quick, I see him taking short passes and making the first guy miss and then it is off to the races for the rookie. Agholor has a legitimate shot at 1,000 yards in Chip Kelly's high octane offense this season.
Daniel Simpkins: DeVante Parker’s foot injury has been somewhat of a blessing in disguise for his ADP. He’s usually going in the back half of round ten at the earliest. I’ve even picked him up after the draft in some of my leagues. He was the Dolphins’ round one pick and the team has been adamant that as soon as he is feeling ready, he will see the field. Parker’s value is also boosted by the fact that the offense he plays for is on the rise under the guidance of Bill Lazor. Though Parker isn’t my choice for the most talented wide receiver of this class, he’s certainly no slouch. His ADP to talent ratio is the best among the rookies. If he does pan out, a la Odell Beckham Jr, he’ll be a force for fantasy teams. Parker’s price tag is such that you won’t feel bad about throwing him back if he can’t put it together this year.
Chad Parsons: I am with Daniel on his selection of DeVante Parker. His cost falls into the "I have no immediate expectations for him in my starting lineup" zone at receiver, perfect for an incoming rookie drafted in the top-half of Round 1 by the NFL. Odell Beckham is an apt comparison in that Parker is a bet on his second half of the season more than the opening weeks. Ryan Tannehill is poised for his best season yet and Miami's receivers are a collection of role players more than lead receivers - which is Parker's potential once up to speed physically.
Andy Hicks: I have to agree with Jeff on Nelson Agholor. The most important thing he has is opportunity. Others like DeVante Parker, Phillip Dorsett and Devin Smith have at least a pair of starters ahead of them on the depth chart, while others like Breshad Perriman, Kevin White and Parker again have injuries.
Considering that Chip Kelly has let Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin leave in recent years, he has a lot invested in Agholor being a success. He is giving the kid every opportunity to hit the ground running and considering his ADP he has value in redrafts, let alone dynasty leagues. Like Jeff I see 1000 yards as a distinct possibility this year.
James Brimacombe: I am with Jeff and Andy on the Nelson Agholor bandwagon. Chip Kelly loves his Pac-12 players and spending a 1st round pick on Agholor only furthers that truth. Add in the lose to Jeremy Maclin and you have to predict Agholor to see a heavy dose of targets right from the start. All the reports are glowing about Agholor's ability and talent during training camp and his situation might just be the best out of all the rookies this year with having Chip Kelly on his side. How do you replace Maclin's 86/1329/10 numbers from a year ago? Well it looks like the Eagles are all in on their duo of young WR's with Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor. Matthews put up a 67/872/8 stat line as a rookie last season, so I don't see any reason why Agholor can't duplicate those numbers for himself in 2015.
Phil Alexander: A vague knee injury (most likely a strained PCL) looks like it will cost Breshad Perriman the entire preseason. While it's certainly not a positive for a rookie wide receiver (especially one who was advertised as raw heading into the NFL draft) to miss their first training camp, I see the injury creating a buying opportunity. Perriman's ADP (10.01) is down almost two full rounds from where he was being selected early this summer. As long as he recovers in time for the season opener, everything there was to like about Perriman's landing spot in Baltimore still remains.
Ravens OC Marc Trestman's teams have finished in the top half of the league in pass attempts in each of his 10 seasons as a play caller, and the Ravens have a 169 target void left behind by the departures of Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. Health permitting, Perriman will be given every opportunity to prove his athleticism, size, and top end speed are enough to get him by while his hands and route running develop. Amari Cooper and Nelson Agholor will probably both best Perriman's numbers this year, but relative to his ADP, Perriman is shaping up as a value.
Chris Feery: Count me in on Nelson Agholor as well. As Andy pointed out, it comes down to opportunity. Chip Kelly is firmly in his corner and the rookie should pay immediate dividends in a high octane offense. Agholor provided a glimpse of his special talents in the first preseason game against the Colts and as Jeff alluded to - defenses failing to take him down immediately will be burned. Also love the upside for Phillip Dorsett, he has a good shot at locking down the WR3 job in Indy and should make some noise in 2015.
