![Reading the Defense: Linebacker Tiers](https://footballguys.imgix.net/nfl-action-photos/KuecLu99_H.jpg?auto=format,compress&w=730)
WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
HOW TO USE THE TIERS
Note 1: These tiers are based on 2015 expectation in a balanced IDP scoring system. I stopped producing dynasty rankings years ago when it became clear I weighted the current season significantly more than future seasons. In deeper dynasty leagues, I'll save a roster slot for a strong developmental prospect but otherwise still use these tiers as my primary roster philosophy. A separate dynasty stash tier is included at the end of each positional article.
Note 2: I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts). Early in the offseason, I'll deviate from the Rotoworld depth chart when I'm reasonably certain a positional change is coming that Rotoworld will reflect later in the offseason.
Note 3: I'll add a ^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release. For reference, you'll be able to see the earlier versions of these tier articles within the IDP article list, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. I'll also be including an ADP column after training camp begins. The ADP number will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings, and ADP data from drafts at MFL.
Note 4: I've added a column to note which players have added big play value. Refer to this article on big play strategy to get a sense of just how much these players should move up in your own tiers.
Finally, the date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Each update will be published as a stand-alone article. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.
That's a long, but necessary, introduction to the important stuff. Thanks for bearing with me.
STRATEGY THOUGHTS
Linebacker has long been thought of as the anchor position in IDP leagues. Most leagues allow you to start more linebackers than any other position. Tackles are the highest volume stat -- they happen on almost every play and are less prone to variance than sacks and interceptions -- and linebackers are the tackle-producing defenders in nearly every defense.
Those factors help to elevate the importance of linebackers so much that even smart fantasy owners can't help themselves from drafting a linebacker over a defensive lineman, even when the defensive lineman may be demonstrably more valuable.
In each of the last two seasons, the number of consistently valuable fantasy linebackers dropped considerably. And "dropped" probably understates reality. Severe injuries and the rise of platooning run-stopping and coverage linebackers often made it hard for those in deeper leagues to find enough every-down linebackers to start in their fantasy lineup.
I have hope that 2015 will be different. I can't predict injuries and there are many, many unsettled situations heading into the draft and OTAs. But while the linebacker tiers are very fluid right now, I think we'll see more fantasy depth at linebacker than we've had in the past 2-3 seasons.
In July, I identified over 100 players I could see earning a place in my draftable tiers during the preseason. That number will naturally be smaller in these August updates, as we learn which players have the best shot at playing time in the regular season. But I still have over 40 players tiered into groups with LB2 potential or better. Of course, it's impossible for 40 players to finish in the top 25 year end rankings.
Recognizing this depth has value for your draft strategy. As I wrote in the defensive line tier feature, I'm recommending prioritizing an elite DL over an elite LB as your first IDP drafted and planning to draft two defensive ends among your first three IDP selections.
TIER 1 | ELITE LB1
These three are the class of this year's group. Last week's third preseason game confirmed Bowman's place in this tier for me. If you're convinced you need an elite linebacker on your roster, make sure it's one of these three.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Luke Kuechly | <> | LB1 | Fundamental high tackle option w/ big play value | |
Lavonte David | <> | LB2 | Tampa system boosts already elite statistical upside | |
NaVorro Bowman | <> | LB5 | Huge third preseason game and likely elite opportunity cements slot here |
TIER 1A | ELITE LB1 UPSIDE
I wish I knew where to slot Bobby Wagner. He's arguably my favorite linebacker to watch play and I'll always have a great memory of the first time he had my spidey senses going with his play at the Senior Bowl practices. But I can't ignore the eight games a season he'll play in front of a stat crew that's more likely to give him a 3-7 line than a 8-2. And the Seahawks will again limit their own tackle opportunity signfiicantly. This tier is very tight, so don't read too much into Wagner's place at the "bottom" of this group.
After rewriting an old sack-heavy scoring strategy article this week, I realized I'd been shorting Justin Houston and Clay Matthews in balanced systems. Both are more than good enough to belong in the LB1 conversation.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Mosley | <> | LB3 | May soon regret not moving him into elite tier for this season | |
DeAndre Levy | <> | LB6 | 119 solos w/ league’s 4th worst tackle opportunity; regression coming | |
Derrick Johnson | <> | LB16 | Achilles injury seems well behind him and will again be every-down ILB anchor | |
Jamie Collins | <> | LB9 | XX | Return of Mayo means more competition for tackles; offset by big play upside |
Paul Posluszny | <> | LB7 | 31 yrs old recovering from pectoral tear w/ more competition for tackles | |
Bobby Wagner | <> | LB4 | Would be elite tier if not for assist-heavy home stat crew | |
Justin Houston | <> | LB14 | XX | 50-14 floor good enough to consider in LB1 tier in all leagues |
Clay Matthews | <> | LB38 | XX | Will be inside linebacker on base downs and pass rusher in subpackages; 70-10 possible |
LUMPING VERSUS SPLITTING
Here's the point where I again remind everyone -- veteran and newbie readers alike -- that I'm a lumper, not a splitter.
I group players together by their upside-floor profile rather than how I'd rank them from 1-100. Lumping players with a similar point expectation into a group with a high floor and questionable upside, a group with high upside and a worrisome floor, or a group mostly dependent on sacks is very helpful during the draft. If I've already rostered a number of high risk players, I may want a higher floor option in the same tier. Put another way, the high risk and high floor player will "rank" differently in different draft / roster scenarios.
It's also why I resist the draft board approach I use in the combined rookie draft board feature. I could present these tiers side-by-side. But there would be very little separation from top-to-bottom and left-to-right. Yes, there are a lot of names lumped together. But that's why I love tiers. Knowing before your first round pick that the players you've tiered together as your possible LB2 targets will come off the board over many rounds is huge.
So be true to this process. If you know you will draft Kiko Alonso rounds before any other player in your X tier, he either needs to be moved up to the "bottom" of your earlier tier or the other players in Alonso's tier need to be moved down.
The lumping of players into three separate "Tier 2" groups is my way of identifying that a Tier 2B player (higher floor, lower upside) is very different than the Tier 2A player (higher upside, lower floor) but both could finish in the 10-25 range at year's end if things break as expected.
THOUGHTS ON TIER 2
I believe the second tier will bring both quality and quantity this year.
The 2B (High Floor LB2) and 2C (Rush LB2) tiers should remain straightforward and stable. The bottom of the 2A (Risk-Reward LB2) and top of the 3A (Upside LB3) are now starting to come into focus, but many of those names will be interchangeable. Don't hesitate to move a player in that range up or down.
I've ended the Rush LB2 tier and moved the four edge rushing linebackers I'd consider in balanced leagues and sack-heavy leagues into the LB2 and better tiers. I think all four should be considered within those tiers and it's confusing to separate them out of the elite and risk-reward categories.
TIER 2A | RISK-REWARD LB2
As always, this tier is where the value lives. And unless you're willing to pay up for the linebackers in the elite tiers, you must attack this tier hard. So, I'm filling this group with any player formerly in the Upside LB3 tier with top 10 weekly potential. That's means more variance in the lower reaches of this tier and a long, long list of good options. But it's the way I've found myself drafting over the past two weeks.
Clay Matthews and Derrick Johnson are likely to be available after the other names in the elite tiers and they'll be a good start after 10-12 linebackers have been drafted. Try to fill out your roster with players in this tier. If you want a safer hedge or two, look to the High Floor LB2 or LB3 groups.
I've had drafts recently where I've added 3-4 players from this tier ten rounds (or more) after the first linebackers have been drafted. In one league, I drafted Derrick Johnson, Preston Brown, Clay Matthews, and Christian Jones late and feel like I've got a group of backers every bit as good as those who started sooner. I also have two elite defensive ends and a very strong offensive bench.
If you're in a big play league, Justin Houston, Khalil Mack, Von Miller, and Clay Matthews must be your four priority targets.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jelani Jenkins | <> | LB15 | Strong numbers as starter; marginal competition for tackles | |
Khalil Mack | <> | LB24 | XX | Will be classifed at LB in most league systems; just behind Houston in expectation |
Sean Lee | <> | LB11 | Reports are promising enough to list here; could move up if looks good in game action | |
Mychal Kendricks | <> | LB13 | Some inconsistency and now competing w/ Alonso for tackles or would tier higher | |
Karlos Dansby | vvv | LB17 | Disappointing 2014 but opportunity knocks again this year | |
Preston Brown | <> | LB26 | Will play MLB in Ryan's Over-Under fronts | |
Alec Ogletree | <> | LB8 | 90 solos w/ good peripherals = strong floor; athletic enough to have shot at Top 10 | |
Von Miller | <> | LB38 | XX | Phillips’ scheme may drop tackle numbers slightly but 50-12 upside remains |
Brandon Marshall | ^^^ | LB32 | Looks healthy and has avoided any re-conditioning injuries | |
Kiko Alonso | <> | LB10 | Felt he was over-valued before injury; will have more competition in PHI | |
Christian Jones | <> | LB50 | May miss a dime snap now and then but looking strong early in camp | |
Stephone Anthony | <> | LB34 | Has won starting middle linebacker job and should play every down | |
Lawrence Timmons | vvv | LB23 | Moving down due to uncertainty over toe injury | |
Telvin Smith Sr | <> | LB22 | Burst onto scene in nickel role and kept momentum as every-down linebacker | |
Kwon Alexander | ^^^ | LB59 | Promoted to starting MLB in base and has a shot to play every down | |
Ryan Shazier | <> | LB28 | Tomlin wants him at ILB and expects Timmons-like development | |
Anthony Barr | ^^^ | LB44 | XX | Room for more upside after Top 25 finish in balanced leagues last year |
Avery Williamson | <> | LB49 | Widening gap over Brown now and will have high opportunity | |
Ryan Kerrigan | <> | LB57 | XX | Strong enough to separate from matchup rush LB tier |
Nigel Bradham | <> | LB36 | BUF defense may limit its own opportunity; competition high w/ Brown | |
Vontaze Burfict | vvv | LB33 | May end up on inseason PUP after all; keep on watch list to add midseason |
TIER 2B | HIGH FLOOR LB2
There are some very good names on this list. To make this tier, a linebacker has to play every down, be capable of 88-92 solos, and add something in the pass rush or coverage categories (pass rush, passes defensed, etc.). That's a strong every week fantasy performer.
What I don't see from this group is 100+ solo tackle upside or the potential for a big play in any given game. I may be underrating Worrilow or Robinson or Tulloch a tad, but I don't believe the talent or athletic ability equals the players in the 1A or 2A tiers. But this list of names is a good indication of the kind of linebacker group you can put together if you wait 6-8 rounds after Kuechly and David are drafted to start filling out your linebacker roster.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Worrilow | <> | LB12 | Marginal talent w/ elite opportunity; won’t fault anyone for slotting him higher | |
Keenan Robinson | <> | LB19 | Strong debut was long time coming; loss of Haslett won’t hurt value | |
D’Qwell Jackson | <> | LB18 | Cannot count on more than six solos per game but will have elite weeks | |
James Laurinaitis | <> | LB21 | Tackle trend drops him out of elite tiers but still has strong LB2 floor | |
Stephen Tulloch | <> | LB35 | Was elite producer last year before injury; now recovered from ACL tear |
TIER 2C | RUSH / BIG PLAY LB2
I've ended the Rush LB2 tier and moved the four edge rushing linebackers I'd consider in balanced leagues and sack-heavy leagues into the LB2 and better tiers. I think all four should be considered within those tiers and it's confusing to separate them out of the elite and risk-reward categories.
Every season, I'm asked to identify an undervalued edge linebacker who will break into this elite tier. That's the caliber of player that most belongs in this group. In most seasons, there's a strong candidate. Cameron Wake and Justin Houston didn't have big sack numbers early in their careers but had the per snap rush numbers of elite pass rushers. They also had the tape to back it up.
Last year didn't present a Wake - Houston type candidate. Earlier this summer, we definitely had one -- Khalil Mack. I've moved him up -- along with Clay Matthews and Justin Houston -- into a more elite tier.
THOUGHTS ON TIER 3 AND BEYOND
There's still some work to be done here, but I've cleaned up the Tier Jumper | Preseason Watch List tier. Players I'm comfortable drafting and rostering have been moved into the second and third tiers. I've separated players I'll be deleting in the next update into a separate On Their Way Out tier to close the loop on the Tier Jumper group.
TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3
I adjusted the Upside LB2 and LB3 tiers considerably this week. I've moved every linebacker I think has a regular chance at top ten weekly value into a higher tier. It's not that I don't think Trevathan, Brown, Kendricks, and others in this tier aren't capable fantasy players. They're still listed here. But I have one significant question mark I cannot get past with each of them. Deeper redraft league owners will have to dip into this tier. Dynasty owners should obviously tier Kendricks, Wilson, Kennard, and Moore a little higher and show patience.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Danny Trevathan | vvv | LB37 | Still hasn't participated in preseason game but expected to be ready W1 | |
Jerod Mayo | vvv | LB27 | Patellar tendon injury a major concern; may not recover to previous form | |
Sam Barrington | <> | LB43 | So-so talent but lock to start at ILB now w/ excellent chance at every-down role | |
Sean Weatherspoon | vvv | LB46 | Great opportunity in ARI but was already slowing down before Achilles injury | |
Zach Brown | <> | LB55 | Fundamental issues look to be continuing but high volume may offset | |
Anthony Hitchens | <> | LB72 | Lining up at MLB over Brinkley w/ McClain out; increased value early in season | |
Eric Kendricks | <> | LB29 | In three way battle w/ Hodges but still hope to become every-down MLB this season | |
Brian Cushing | ^^^ | Adding former favorite ensures he'll sit in subs or get injured; looking good now | ||
Ramik Wilson | ^^^ | Looks to have won every-down ILB job in KC | ||
Kelvin Sheppard | ^^^ | LB95 | Every-down MLB with weekly upside | |
Jon Beason | <> | LB48 | Knee sprain latest injury to limit him; could miss W1 | |
Gerald Hodges | vvv | Has shot to win MLB job but wasn't playing in nickel over Kendricks | ||
J.T. Thomas | vvv | LB66 | May now be favorite to play every down | |
Malcolm Smith | <> | Leading WLB battle by TKO currently and playing every down | ||
Devon Kennard | vvv | LB73 | Giants still evaluating nickel defenders; Kennard may be out | |
Sio Moore | vvv | LB41 | Watch list only; hasn't recovered enough to threaten Smith yet | |
Daryl Washington | <> | LB85 | If re-instated will be suspended again for multiple games; a roster hold but do not draft |
TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3
These players would be well into the 30s on a straight rank list. But this group is full of high floor, trustworthy fantasy talent. It feels wrong to put Daryl Smith and Jerrell Freeman here, but the ceiling just isn't there for them any longer. And Demario Davis, Donald Butler, and Justin Durant will likely find themselves inside the weekly Top 30 more often than not.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Daryl Smith | <> | LB30 | Assist counts preserved some value last season; age and Mosley limiting factors | |
Curtis Lofton | vvv | LB20 | Nervous about him sitting on nickel snaps in third preseason week | |
Donald Butler | ^^^ | LB77 | Reported to camp in shape and motivated; sitting only in dime for now | |
Jerrell Freeman | <> | LB25 | Lost half step; won’t have many big weeks w/ assist-heavy IND stat crew | |
Shea McClellin | ^^^ | LB61 | Cementing himself ahead of Bostic and Foster and will see good opportunity | |
David Harris | <> | LB42 | High floor option in Bowles’ defense | |
Manti Te’o | <> | LB60 | Playing every down but not dynamic enough to rank in upside tiers | |
Thomas Davis | <> | LB47 | Impressive and resilient talent but upside limited next to Kuechly | |
Demario Davis | <> | LB31 | Has settled into good but not great tier; WILB role should be favorable | |
Perry Riley | <> | LB58 | Could lose snaps to Compton; favorable stat crew supports his floor | |
K.J. Wright | <> | LB56 | Solid player limited by low volume of opportunity and strong surrounding cast | |
Justin Durant | <> | LB64 | Durability major concern and will be high variance every-down WLB | |
Michael Wilhoite | <> | LB81 | Back in conversation after Willis/Borland retirement but low ceiling |
MATCHUP RUSH LB
This tier is deeper than ever. Every player on this list has double digit sack potential. Consistency and lack of tackle upside keep them out of the elite tier for now. Those in big play leagues can roster the top half of this list as LB2/LB3 without concern. Balanced league owners should probably plan to stream these players by matchup unless and until one shows elite week-to-week upside.
PLAYER | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Connor Barwin | <> | LB67 | XX | Expect some regression from last season’s elite numbers |
Terrell Suggs | <> | LB78 | XX | Second half 2014 better than first half but not consistent enough to consider elite |
DeMarcus Ware | <> | LB51 | XX | Can’t project him over 45 solos so he slips back into matchup tier |
Trent Cole | <> | XX | May be underrating him here; will have less competition for tackles and good rush volume | |
Pernell McPhee | <> | LB70 | XX | Don’t see 50-10 upside as primary rush OLB option in CHI |
Brandon Graham | <> | LB65 | XX | Not the type of freedom I hoped for him; has to scale per snap numbers to bigger role |
Alex Okafor | <> | XX | Not convinced he has breakout potential but warrants mentioning | |
Paul Kruger | <> | LB94 | XX | 12 sacks and solid pressure numbers have me reconsidering him here |
Brian Orakpo | <> | XX | Lack of durability has killed his value but there’s still upside here | |
Elvis Dumervil | <> | XX | An option in very sack heavy scoring systems only | |
Derrick Morgan | <> | LB86 | Not sure I see high enough floor or ceiling to move higher | |
Julius Peppers | <> | Still a little left in his tank | ||
Robert Mathis | <> | LB80 | XX | Surprisingly activated from PUP list last week; has value if fully recovered |
DYNASTY STASH
Here's a long list of options to consider in deeper leagues.
OFF-BALL LB | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Shaq Thompson | ^^^ | LB89 | Seeing first team reps at SLB now; upside limited by role and opportunity for now | |
Denzel Perryman | <> | LB64 | ETA more likely 2016 now but has every-down upside | |
Jake Ryan | <> | LB91 | Not ready for a base defensive ILB role yet | |
Paul Dawson | <> | CIN won't push a rookie into lineup over vets like Lamur and Rey and Hawk | ||
Benardrick McKinney | <> | LB54 | No camp buzz whatsoever; HOU plans to ease him into every-down role | |
Kevin Pierre-Louis | <> | Will see more playing time w/ Malcolm Smith gone in free agency | ||
Arthur Brown | <> | Hold in deep roster leagues; still chance he finds himself in better situation in time | ||
Kevin Minter | <> | Disappointing start to career; depth chart still favorable for base duty |
EDGE LB | TREND | ADP | ADDED BIG PLAY VALUE | CONTEXT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Lynch | <> | LB97 | XX | Will see snap count increase dramatically w/ Smith release |
Jadeveon Clowney | <> | LB88 | XX | Early microfracture huge red flag but too much talent to give up on yet |
Dante Fowler | <> | XX | Athleticism concerns before ACL but is a violent and fundamental football player | |
Preston Smith | ^^^ | XX | Could work way into matchup rush LB tier this year | |
Hau’oli Kikaha | ^^^ | XX | Move to 4-3 defense and SLB role hurts upside even if he sees 500+ snaps as rookie | |
Shane Ray | <> | XX | To develop behind Ware/Miller this year | |
Jeremiah Attaochu | vvv | XX | Chance he breaks out as 45-10 or better this year; big play league sleeper | |
Bud Dupree | vvv | XX | Needs seasoning but first step and measurables too impressive to ignore | |
Barkevious Mingo | <> | Now or never season off to poor start w/ knee injury | ||
Nate Orchard | <> | Fundamental but not impressively athletic | ||
Lorenzo Mauldin | <> | Won’t surprise if he jumps many of players listed here by end of 2015 | ||
Za’Darius Smith | <> | Gets to develop behind Suggs/Doom this year | ||
Dee Ford | <> | XX | Not giving up on him yet |
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.