Reading the Defense: Linebacker Tiers [Post Free Agency]

Photo: Imagn Images

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

HOW TO USE THE TIERS

Note 1: These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only. I stopped producing dynasty rankings years ago when it became clear I weighted the current season significantly more than future years. In deeper dynasty leagues, I'll save a roster slot for a strong developmental prospect but will otherwise use these tiers as my primary roster philosophy. I'll include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

Note 2: I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). Early in the offseason, I'll deviate from the Rotoworld depth chart when I'm reasonably certain a positional change is coming that Rotoworld will reflect later in the offseason.

Note 3: I will add a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers in future articles. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release. For reference, you'll be able to see the earlier versions of these tier articles within the IDP article list, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. I'll also be including an ADP column. The ADP number will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings, and ADP data from drafts at MFL.

Finally, the date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Each update will be published as a stand-alone article. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.

That's a long, but necessary, introduction to the important stuff. Thanks for bearing with me.

STRATEGY THOUGHTS

Linebacker has long been thought of as the anchor position in IDP leagues. Most leagues allow you to start more linebackers than any other position. Tackles are the highest volume stat -- they happen on almost every play and are less prone to variance than sacks and interceptions -- and linebackers are the tackle-producing defenders in nearly every defense.

Those factors help to elevate the importance of linebackers so much that even smart fantasy owners can't help themselves from drafting a linebacker over a defensive lineman, even when the defensive lineman may be demonstrably more valuable.

So, the last two seasons, which have been filled with severe and long-term injuries and a decreasing number of every-down players as teams platoon run-stopping and coverage linebackers in various packages, have been painful for IDP lovers.

I have hope that 2015 will be different. I can't predict injuries and there are many, many unsettled situations heading into the draft and OTAs. But while the linebacker tiers are very fluid right now, I think we'll see more fantasy depth at linebacker than we've had in the past 2-3 seasons.

In this update, I identified nearly 100 players I could see earning a place in my August tiers. I have ten players I like as elite or near-elite options with another handful of players who will move up from the risk-reward tiers if they look healthy this summer. The group of players with top 5-8 upside could be deeper than it's been in years.

Many of those 100 players will drop out of the rosterable range when OTAs determine who will play where and when in Buffalo, Denver, Tennessee, New Orleans, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Green Bay, Dallas, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Chicago, the New York Giants, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Houston and Minnesota. There's a long list of matchup rush linebackers with potential weekly value. But there's going to be lots of depth behind the elite tiers, too.

Since I don't see very little chance the defensive end tiers expand and improve this summer, I expect to argue for taking two elite defensive line options before addressing the linebacker position this year. Consider the following tiers and developing linebacker situations with that in mind.

TIER 1 | ELITE LB1

I'm not ready to declare many linebackers as clear Elite LB1 caliber fantasy options yet. I expect to have more than two players in this tier by summer, but may choose to keep this tier shallow and emphasize depth until very late in training camp.

Kuechly and David are safe elite options. Barring injury, nothing will happen between now and August to convince me to move either out of the top two spots in this tier.

TIER 1A | ELITE LB1 UPSIDE

This tier has it all. Established veterans, talented players recovering from serious injury, young players who look likely to live in this tier for years to come and older players who should still have a strong year left in their tanks.

However, I could make an argument against each one of them not providing elite value this year. Some of those arguments would be weaker than others, but it's enough to keep me from fully endorsing them as having a top 8-10 floor at this point in the offseason.

Here's the point where I remind everyone -- veteran and newbie readers alike -- that I'm a lumper, not a splitter.

That means I group players based on a upside-floor profile, not how they'd rank. In other words. those at the top of the High Floor LB2 tier may rank ahead of those at the end of the Risk-Reward LB2 tier. For example, I'd likely draft Paul Worrilow before many of the Risk-Reward linebackers today. The break point would be somewhere in the Lee-Burfict-Timmons range depending on my roster composition and risk tolerance. You may choose to take a higher risk player (or a rush LB) in balanced leagues based on your own personal roster philosophy.

The lumping of players into three separate "Tier 2" groups is my way of saying -- X player has a higher floor than a higher variance Y player but both are likely to finish in the 10-25 range at year's end if things break as expected.

It is also critical to note -- though not surprising in an April update -- that the second and third tiers are very fluid right now.

TIER 2A | RISK-REWARD LB2

Currently, I have ten linebackers in the elite range. There are close to 20 more in this three-headed tier (and a few more in unsettled situations with top 15-20 upside in later tiers).

TIER 2B | HIGH FLOOR LB2

I doubt I'll have anyone other than Lofton on my rosters this year from this group. I see more downside here than upside.

TIER 2C | RUSH / BIG PLAY LB2

Every season, I'm asked to identify an undervalued edge linebacker who will break into the elite tier. In most seasons, there's a extremely strong candidate. Cameron Wake and Justin Houston didn't have big sack numbers early in their careers but had the per snap rush numbers of elite pass rushers. They also had the tape to back it up.

Last year didn't present a Wake - Houston type candidate. We definitely have one this year -- Khalil Mack. Mack won't be as under the radar as the UDFA-turned-CFL star or a third round player who fell in the draft due to character concerns, but he fits the breakout profile perfectly. He'll be on lots of my teams this year.

Unlike the second tier, I'll generally draft the 3A players over the 3B players. When looking for back end lineup and roster players, I'd much rather have a player with an outside shot at the top 10 than a player with a top 40-50 floor but lesser upside.

Also, the 3A (Upside LB) and Tier Jumper Watch List groups are full of two- and three-headed situations. I've tried to tier these situations as clearly as possible. Here are the general rules of engagement:

1. Situations are ranked according to talent of players competing for the role, the opportunity in the role, and the current clarity of the situation. For example, I like the talent and role for the prospective Buffalo ILBs better than the talent and role for the prospective New Orleans ILBs.

2. Within each team subgroup, I've ranked prospective players by preference. For example, I'd rather roster Preston Brown ove Nigel Bradham and David Hawthorne over Dannell Ellerbe today.

3. In general, I'm tiering talent over opportunity and upside over floor here, as always.

What that system misses is that I wouldn't necessarily take Nigel Bradham (if both Bradham and Brown win every-down jobs) over leading candidates Danny Trevathan or Zach Brown. Follow the context blurbs for, well, more context.

As these situations work themselves out in OTAs and we see and hear what coaches feel about their depth chart and player roles, I'll clean these tiers up. Some players will move higher, some players may fall off the tier board altogether.

TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

There will be lots of value in this group. By August, a small handful will be in the LB2 tiers. Others won't be draftable/rosterable, but may belong on a speed dial list if there's a depth chart shakeup.

TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3

With free agency behind us, I've identified a few more linebackers valuable enough to separate from the large group of matchup dependent depth types that won't make this article. Some of them will fall off the list after the draft and OTAs. Don't shy away from targeting many of the players in the tier jumper list over these high floor - low upside names.

TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

This group will get progressively smaller as the offseason progresses. By the time my final update is published in August, nearly every player on this list will have found a home in a higher tier or have been deleted from the article entirely.

The deeper you go on this list, the less likely I'd be to hold a roster spot. But all warrant close observation as we move through free agency and offseason workouts. 

matchup rush lb

This tier is deeper than ever and likely to grow by 2-4 names after the draft. Almost every player on this list can put up double digit sacks this year. Consistency and lack of tackle upside keep them out of the elite tier for now. Those in big play leagues can roster the top half of this list as LB2/LB3 without concern. Balanced league owners should probably plan to stream these players by matchup unless and until one shows elite week-to-week upsde.

DYNASTY STASH

Easy come, easy go. Chris Borland topped this list last month. That removes the only likely elite stash option for redraft league owners and leaves little for shallow-medium dynasty owners to target.

2015 PROSPECT WATCH

Lots more to come on these prospects this month -- check out this extended discussion I had with Matt Waldman on Eric Kendricks for a preview of what's to come -- but I think we'll add at least 3-4 rookies to the draftable tiers this summer.

 Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.